Aaron Schatz

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are slightly favored over the Philadelphia Eagles in Wild Card Weekend

The biggest one for me is Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. I actually, in my projections, I have Tampa Bay very, very slightly favored... If you look at the weighted numbers that give more weight to recent games, Tampa Bay is 15th, Philadelphia is 21st.

The Rams' historically bad special teams will likely cost them a game at some point in the playoffs.

The worst [special teams unit] by far by far was the Rams. Yeah. The Rams were the sixth worst special teams unit in DVOA history... Their special teams like it almost cost them against the Giants. It absolutely cost them the game against the Ravens. Punt return and touchdown in overtime. Their special teams are terrible... I would say it's likely that that will happen at some point along the way.

Josh Allen is elite despite the interceptions because he has the lowest sack rate in the league and often throws 'punted' interceptions.

The interceptions that Allen throws are for the most part not as bad because they tend to be downfield or on fourth down. And we don't talk about the fact that he had the lowest sack rate of any quarterback this year. Right. Those are negative plays too. And he doesn't take a lot of sacks. So like he was in quarterback value, I think we had him third this year... Allen does so much more of it on his own.

Buffalo and Dallas are the two best teams in the NFL outside of San Francisco and Baltimore

The number two teams in each conference are pretty clearly Buffalo and Dallas. Not just the number two seeds, but the number two teams by both DVOA and weighted towards the end of the season. If somebody's gonna win this thing other than San Francisco or Baltimore, it's probably going to be Buffalo or Dallas.