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Belichick Out In New England, Nick Saban Talk With Andy Staples, Aaron Schatz On Wild Card Weekend + Picks & Preview

Friday, January 12, 202416 takes

Bill Belichick is out in New England and Hank is sad. We talk about the exit, his legacy and where he'll go next (-). We also talk about the wild 2 days that saw Pete Carroll, Nick Saban, and Belichick all leave their jobs (-). Super Wild Card Weekend picks and preview for every game Saturday and Sunday (-). Andy Staples joins the show to talk about Nick Saban's retirement, best Nick Saban memories, and who's going to take the job next (-). Aaron Schatz from FTN Fantasy joins the show to talk about DVOA, which he invented, and how it applies to teams in the playoffs. Weaknesses and strengths for every team and who he thinks is over achieving and under achieving (-). We then finish with Fyre Fest of the week (-).

Recap

Void
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024
#PMT-2024-0112-5587
Big CatBig Cat

Pete Carroll has an argument for being a top 10 football coach of all time

Pete Carroll has an argument for being a top 10 football coach of all time. He's 14th all time in NFL wins. He's got two national titles in college football. If you put it all together, Pete Carroll has an argument for being a top 10 football coach of all time.

Subjective all-time ranking.
Loss
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024
#PMT-2024-0112-5588
HankHank

I would rather the Patriots hire Mike Vrabel than Jerod Mayo to replace Bill Belichick

I would rather Vrabel... He's a recurring guest, friend of the program. He's proven it. Super Bowl champion. Obviously Mayo is too, but I would rather Vrabel just [because of his] proximity to the show.

The Patriots hired Jerod Mayo on January 12, 2024, the day this episode aired, making Hank's preference obsolete.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024
#PMT-2024-0112-5589
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I am no longer interested in the Commanders hiring Bill Belichick because he is now unemployed

I don't think I'm interested any longer at Bill Belichick because now that he doesn't have a team, it's like, do I really want to... he was way more attractive as a candidate when he had a job. Now it's like, oh, this unemployed guy wants to work for me... I don't want a retread like Belichick.

The Commanders did not hire Belichick; they hired Dan Quinn.
Loss
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024
#PMT-2024-0112-5590
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Bill Belichick's mystery landing spot could be the Dallas Cowboys

I have three candidates for the mystery team. The Dallas Cowboys. If Mike McCarthy loses in the first, or maybe even in the second game, if they get their ass kicked in the divisional round, I could see Jerry Jones being like, we gotta make a change, Belichick's out here.

Belichick did not join the Cowboys in the 2024 cycle; McCarthy was retained.
Void
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024
#PMT-2024-0112-5591
HankHank

I will be the biggest Dallas Cowboys fan if they hire Bill Belichick

If he goes to Dallas, I'm gonna be the biggest Cowboys fan. Even bigger than I am now.

The condition (Belichick going to Dallas) never met.
Void
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024
#PMT-2024-0112-5592
LF
Legend from Alabama

If Alabama hires Dabo Swinney, I will set myself on fire on the 50-yard line

If it's Dabo Swinney, I'm pulling gasoline on my cell and setting myself on fire on the 50 yard line. You can guarantee it. If it's Dabo Swinney, I'm pulling my arm off and taking that contract fracture and beating the hell out of myself. No damn Dabo!

Alabama hired Kalen DeBoer, so the caller did not have to self-immolate.

Picks

Loss
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0112-5593
Big CatBig Cat

The Cleveland Browns will beat the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round

I think there's maybe a little, like, you might get into a point where it's like, as great as CJ Stroud's been this year, this is a different animal. And this is a different beast. And this is a team that's, that's completely different than the teams that they've been beating down the stretch.

The Texans beat the Browns 45-14.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0112-5594
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Miami Dolphins because Tua Tagovailoa cannot play in the cold

I don't see Tua winning this game... the stats that you had for Tua, you can just watch Tua when he plays in the cold. He looks very uncomfortable going on the road. Arrowhead is like one of the top two or three hardest places to play... I think I'm gonna take the Chiefs.

The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 26-7 in one of the coldest games in NFL history.
Loss
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0112-5595
Big CatBig Cat

Travis Kelce to score a touchdown is the Super Wild Card prop of the year

Travis Kelce scored touchdowns plus money now. And the dolphins are not great guarding the tight end. And I do think that like when you get to the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes will be like, who can I trust? Travis Kelce's the guy I can trust.

Kelce did not score a touchdown in the Wild Card game vs. Miami.
Loss
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0112-5596
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the Buffalo Bills outright

I like the Steelers moneyline... You hate all our friends. You hate our futures. It's gotta be a dog that wins.

The Bills beat the Steelers 31-17.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0112-5597
Big CatBig Cat

Nuclear missile whale play on the Packers vs. Cowboys over

I think I might make this a nuclear missile whale play on the over... I don't know how the Packers are gonna stop the Cowboys. And I also don't really know how the Cowboys are gonna stop the Packers 'cause Jordan Love's been that good... I like this over a lot. 50 and a half.

The final score was 48-32 (80 points), easily clearing the 50.5 line.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0112-5598
Big CatBig Cat

I am switching my pick to the Detroit Lions over the Los Angeles Rams

I said Rams all week... and I've switched... I'm betting the Lions. I'm gonna take the Lions just because I don't want to make blood money off the Rams winning... I think the Lions are better.

The Lions beat the Rams 24-23.

Interview

Void
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024
#PMT-2024-0112-5599
Andy StaplesAndy Staples

The Alabama job is still a top three job but harder than Georgia and Ohio State

I still think [Georgia's] the best job. I think it's easier to recruit to Georgia... Ohio State's probably a better job because the way you dominate that state... Alabama is a little bit harder than those jobs. And Nick Saban made it look easy.

Subjective ranking of jobs.
Loss
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024
#PMT-2024-0112-5600
Andy StaplesAndy Staples

Mike Norvell is my guess for the next Alabama head coach

I'm going to say Mike Norvell. That is going to be my guess. He's been recruiting in this area... Florida State has to recruit against Alabama, Auburn, Georgia... You are already in that world. You're just not in the same conference.

Alabama hired Kalen DeBoer from Washington on January 12, 2024.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024
#PMT-2024-0112-5601
Aaron SchatzAaron Schatz

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are slightly favored over the Philadelphia Eagles in Wild Card Weekend

The biggest one for me is Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. I actually, in my projections, I have Tampa Bay very, very slightly favored... If you look at the weighted numbers that give more weight to recent games, Tampa Bay is 15th, Philadelphia is 21st.

The Buccaneers beat the Eagles 32-9.
Loss
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024
#PMT-2024-0112-5603
Aaron SchatzAaron Schatz

Buffalo and Dallas are the two best teams in the NFL outside of San Francisco and Baltimore

The number two teams in each conference are pretty clearly Buffalo and Dallas. Not just the number two seeds, but the number two teams by both DVOA and weighted towards the end of the season. If somebody's gonna win this thing other than San Francisco or Baltimore, it's probably going to be Buffalo or Dallas.

Dallas lost in the Wild Card round; Buffalo lost in the Divisional round. Neither made the Super Bowl.