PMT DB
PMT DB
Belichick Out in New England, Saban's Legacy, and Super Wild Card Picks
The sports world just got hit with a tectonic shift. Within 24 hours, the greatest college football coach ever retired and the greatest NFL coach ever was shown the door. Big Cat, PFT, and a mourning Hank processed the news that Pete Carroll, Nick Saban, and Bill Belichick are all suddenly out of jobs. While Hank is still in the denial phase of grief, Big Cat pointed out that Pete Carroll’s dual-threat resume is often overlooked in the GOAT conversation.
Big CatPete Carroll has an argument for being a top 10 football coach of all time
Pete Carroll has an argument for being a top 10 football coach of all time. He's 14th all time in NFL wins. He's got two national titles in college football. If you put it all together, Pete Carroll has an argument for being a top 10 football coach of all time.
The focus quickly shifted to the future of the Patriots. Hank is already campaigning for a specific former player to take the reins, citing his personal connection to the show as a primary qualification.
HankI would rather the Patriots hire Mike Vrabel than Jerod Mayo to replace Bill Belichick
I would rather Vrabel... He's a recurring guest, friend of the program. He's proven it. Super Bowl champion. Obviously Mayo is too, but I would rather Vrabel just [because of his] proximity to the show.
Max had a different perspective on the Belichick exit, suggesting that Bill might have been the one looking for an escape hatch to find a roster that doesn't require a five-year overhaul. PFT, however, is out on the idea of the Commanders bringing him in, noting that his new status as an unemployed coach makes him a much less attractive "retread."
PFT CommenterI am no longer interested in the Commanders hiring Bill Belichick because he is now unemployed
I don't think I'm interested any longer at Bill Belichick because now that he doesn't have a team, it's like, do I really want to... he was way more attractive as a candidate when he had a job. Now it's like, oh, this unemployed guy wants to work for me... I don't want a retread like Belichick.
Super Wild Card Weekend Preview
Saturday kicks off with Joe Flacco leading the Browns into Houston. While CJ Stroud has been a revelation, Big Cat thinks the rookie is about to run into a buzzsaw against a Jim Schwartz defense that has been eating young quarterbacks alive all season.
Big CatThe Cleveland Browns will beat the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round
I think there's maybe a little, like, you might get into a point where it's like, as great as CJ Stroud's been this year, this is a different animal. And this is a different beast. And this is a team that's, that's completely different than the teams that they've been beating down the stretch.
PFT and Big Cat are both feeling points in this one, trusting both offenses to move the ball despite the elite defensive units on the field.
PFT CommenterI like the over in the Browns vs. Texans game.
I kinda like the over in the game too. Good weather... I like the Browns offense. I like the Texans offense. Browns defense obviously is out of this world. But I still think CJ Stroud is gonna get his.
The night cap features the "Candy Ass" Miami Dolphins traveling to the frozen tundra of Arrowhead. The wind chill is projected to be negative 30 degrees, which is a death sentence for a team that has historically struggled when the temperature drops below fifty. PFT isn't overthinking it: he's taking the home team because Tua simply doesn't look like the same player in the cold.
PFT CommenterThe Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Miami Dolphins because Tua Tagovailoa cannot play in the cold
I don't see Tua winning this game... the stats that you had for Tua, you can just watch Tua when he plays in the cold. He looks very uncomfortable going on the road. Arrowhead is like one of the top two or three hardest places to play... I think I'm gonna take the Chiefs.
Big Cat also found his "prop of the year" for this matchup, banking on Mahomes going back to his most reliable target when the stakes are highest and the weather is miserable.
Big CatTravis Kelce to score a touchdown is the Super Wild Card prop of the year
Travis Kelce scored touchdowns plus money now. And the dolphins are not great guarding the tight end. And I do think that like when you get to the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes will be like, who can I trust? Travis Kelce's the guy I can trust.
The Bills and the Nerd Numbers
Sunday features the Bills hosting the Steelers in what could be a snow-filled bloodbath. While Big Cat is finally buying into Buffalo as a legitimate Super Bowl contender because of their improved ground game, PFT is looking at the point spread and finding value in the Steelers' voodoo.
PFT CommenterThe Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the Buffalo Bills outright
I like the Steelers moneyline... You hate all our friends. You hate our futures. It's gotta be a dog that wins.
To settle the debate, Aaron Schatz (the inventor of DVOA) joined the show to explain why the numbers actually support some of Big Cat’s Buffalo glazing. Schatz noted that despite the high-profile interceptions, Josh Allen is doing more with less than almost any other passer in the league.
Aaron SchatzJosh Allen is elite despite the interceptions because he has the lowest sack rate in the league and often throws 'punted' interceptions.
The interceptions that Allen throws are for the most part not as bad because they tend to be downfield or on fourth down. And we don't talk about the fact that he had the lowest sack rate of any quarterback this year. Right. Those are negative plays too. And he doesn't take a lot of sacks. So like he was in quarterback value, I think we had him third this year... Allen does so much more of it on his own.
Schatz also provided a massive red flag for anyone betting on the Rams to make a deep run. While their offense is humming, their special teams unit is historically putrid and likely to blow a game at some point in January.
Aaron SchatzThe Rams' historically bad special teams will likely cost them a game at some point in the playoffs.
The worst [special teams unit] by far by far was the Rams. Yeah. The Rams were the sixth worst special teams unit in DVOA history... Their special teams like it almost cost them against the Giants. It absolutely cost them the game against the Ravens. Punt return and touchdown in overtime. Their special teams are terrible... I would say it's likely that that will happen at some point along the way.
The Alabama Vacuum
Andy Staples hopped on to discuss the fallout of Nick Saban’s retirement. Staples believes that while Saban was always the master of adaptation, the NIL era and the sheer amount of money pouring into rival SEC schools finally made the job more trouble than it was worth.
Andy StaplesNIL is the primary reason Nick Saban decided to retire.
I think that the NIL stuff would be number one outta that bunch. [The NIL part] was something that bothered him... Texas is coming into the SEC Oklahoma's coming into the SEC, they gotta deal with LSU. Tennessee's very well funded. Like you can't make more rich people in Alabama... You're not gonna have as many people as they care deeply about Texas and Texas A&M football 'cause they just have more people.
As for who replaces the legend, Staples warned that the honeymoon period in Tuscaloosa will be about as long as a Saban press conference after a loss. The expectations remain at an impossible level, and whoever takes the whistle better have a ring in their first few seasons.
Andy StaplesThe next Alabama head coach will be expected to win a National Title within three years.
Your job at Alabama is to win the national title every year... The Alabama fan base will not be patient. But I think the administration given like if, if the the person is making reasonable progress toward national titles... the administration's probably gonna be fine with that. But the fan base will be raising holy hell if they're not winning national titles in three years.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year, even if Hank has to spend it watching the Cowboys in a Dak Prescott jersey.
Stay warm, bet the overs, and don't share hats with anyone who has lice.
