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Nate SilverNate Silver

The 2017 Cavaliers stunk in the regular season and look like the Heat team that lost the Finals in five games

This is not a very good team the way they've played down the stretch run. They are no longer the number one seed in their conference... it kind of feels like [LeBron's last year in Miami] is a scenario we could wind up this year, too.

The Cavs did make the Finals but were dominated by the Warriors, losing in five games, exactly as Nate suggested the 2014 Heat parallel would imply.
Void
Nate SilverNate Silver

LeBron James should be in the GOAT conversation with Michael Jordan

I'm one of these guys who says that LeBron should be in the conversation with Jordan. ... Michael Jordan, probably the best NBA player of all time... but [LeBron] should be in the conversation.

Highly subjective and ongoing debate in sports media.
Win
Nate SilverNate Silver

Closers in baseball are used incorrectly by only pitching the ninth inning

Closers are not used well today. It's stupid to only come in the ninth inning. It's because you have the statistic 'the save' that actually measures things badly. ... You should be using them in the most high-leverage situation of the game.

The 'high-leverage' relief pitcher role has become a standard analytical strategy in modern baseball since 2017.
Win
Nate SilverNate Silver

Leicester City winning the Premier League was crazier than the Cubs or Cavs championships

[Leicester winning] was by far of those four. That's like kind of what we want people to compare... Leicester City, that was freaking weird, especially given how they're not very good this year either.

From a betting odds perspective, Leicester's win is objectively the largest upset in sports history.
Void
Nate SilverNate Silver

Improvement in pitchers is less suspicious than hitters developing late-career power

With pitchers, pitching is such a funny thing that I kind of am not suspicious when a pitcher all of a sudden gets good... But for a hitter to suddenly develop power... It's definitely weird to see guys improving at age 36.

This aligns with biological aging curves in sports analytics.
Win
Nate SilverNate Silver

The San Antonio Spurs are the most impressive franchise in American sports history

The Spurs are the most impressive franchise in the history of American professional sports, right? They've been good for, like, 25 of the last 26 years.

The Spurs had 22 consecutive winning seasons and playoff appearances from 1997-2019, an American pro sports record.
Win
Nate SilverNate Silver

Russell Westbrook is the obvious choice for NBA MVP

To me, Westbrook is the kind of obvious answer, I guess. And Harden is the second most obvious answer... Leonard seems like it's overthinking it a little bit.

Russell Westbrook won the 2017 NBA MVP.
Win
Nate SilverNate Silver

I would still take the Cavaliers to win the East over the Celtics, Raptors, or Wizards, even though my model ranks them lower

My brain says LeBron is unbelievable every spring. ... No, I would take the Cavs out of that bunch [Celtics, Raptors, Wizards], obviously. ... I would take the Cavs out of that bunch, obviously.

The Cavaliers swept the Raptors and beat the Celtics in five games to win the 2017 Eastern Conference Finals.
Void
Nate SilverNate Silver

Jimmy Butler is a slightly better player than Paul George

I think [Jimmy] Butler is a pinch better [than Paul George].

This is a subjective comparison of two elite wing players in their prime.
Void
Nate SilverNate Silver

NBA bench depth beyond the 8th man doesn't matter in the playoffs

The [ten-man depth] does not matter. I'm a big believer in the seven and eight teams. ... If none of these ten guys can beat LeBron, what the hell does it matter?

This is a widely held belief in basketball analytics and coaching, as stars play much heavier minutes in the postseason.
Win
Nate SilverNate Silver

Golden State is better with Kevin Durant than without him

So you think that they're better with Kevin Durant? Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think they were better this year than they were.

The Warriors went 16-1 in the 2017 playoffs to win the title with Durant.

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