PMTPMT DB
Randy Moss

Randy Moss

Guest
2016 — Present
20W·20L·4P·1 open
.500
AVG
.875
SLG
2.0K
SHU
-0.11
TVOA
+0.00
SHRP
+$0.8
BNKRL
4W
STRK
1.0
ENTR
racinglifehorse racing44 scored

All Takes

Open
Take Slip·May 16, 2025
#PMT-2025-0516-942
Randy MossRandy Moss

The Triple Crown schedule must be adjusted as trainers will no longer run horses on two weeks' rest

The Preakness is a classic... but they think it is counterproductive to bring [Mystik Dan] back in just two weeks... It's gonna happen more and more frequently in the future until such time as the Triple Crown races become further apart on the calendar.

Discussions about extending the Triple Crown schedule are ongoing in the industry, but no official change has been made yet.
Loss
Take Slip·May 16, 2025
#PMT-2025-0516-943
Randy MossRandy Moss

Clever Again is a strong play to beat the favorite Mystik Dan in the Preakness

There's another horse in the race called Clever Again, trained by Steve Asmussen... he's got speed. He's coming off a really strong race. He's had plenty of rest... I think to take a shot against [Mystik Dan] on the theory that [Mystik Dan] might not perform quite as well in the Preakness as he did in the Derby.

Seize the Grey won the 2024 Preakness. Clever Again did not win.
Loss
Take Slip·May 2, 2025
#PMT-2025-0502-12392
Randy MossRandy Moss

Fierceness is two to three lengths better than any other horse in the Kentucky Derby field

I think [Fierceness] is two to three lengths better than any other horse right now in the field... I think if he's ridden properly, I think [Fierceness]'s, you know, clearly, clearly the horse to beat.

Fierceness was the heavy favorite but finished 15th in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
Win
Take Slip·May 2, 2025
#PMT-2025-0502-12394
Randy MossRandy Moss

A prime Secretariat could not win a race with a 235-pound Big Cat in the saddle

No shot, Big Cat, no shot. I'm sorry to tell you that. [You would finish] probably dead last. Even if you were an accomplished equestrian, at that weight riding Secretariat? No. He'd be up the track.

Thoroughbreds carry ~120 lbs; 235 lbs would be a massive disadvantage that physics supports as race-ending.
Void
Take Slip·May 17, 2024
#PMT-2024-0517-331
Randy MossRandy Moss

Secretariat was likely racing on anabolic steroids

I think a pretty strong possibility that Secretariat was racing on anabolic steroids. But here's the deal. So were the other horses he was running against. It doesn't really taint his legacy in any way to me because he was an incredibly dominant race horse at a time when pretty much all the horses were running on that stuff.

Steroid use in horse racing wasn't banned in many jurisdictions until the 2000s, making Moss's historical assessment highly plausible, though unprovable due to the era's testing.
Win
Take Slip·May 17, 2024
#PMT-2024-0517-332
Randy MossRandy Moss

Mystic Dan is a bet-against in the Preakness Stakes

I think he is a bet against. He got a perfect trip [in the Derby], which he's probably not gonna get Saturday. He's coming back in two weeks. For all those reasons, from a betting standpoint, I think he's a bet against.

Mystic Dan finished 2nd in the Preakness, losing to Seize the Grey. Betting against him to win was the correct gambling strategy.
Loss
Take Slip·May 17, 2024
#PMT-2024-0517-333
Randy MossRandy Moss

Tuscan Gold is the best bet to win the Preakness Stakes

To me, the bet in the Preakness is a horse called Tuscan Gold, trained by Chad Brown. On numbers, he's just as good as Mystic Dan in my opinion... and he should be a higher price.

Tuscan Gold finished 4th in the Preakness and did not win.
Loss
Take Slip·May 3, 2024
#PMT-2024-0503-9617
Randy MossRandy Moss

Fierceness is the best horse in the Kentucky Derby by three or four lengths

If all the horses run their best races, Fierceness wins the race, hands down. Talent wise, Fierceness is probably three or four lengths better than any other horse in the field.

Fierceness finished 15th in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, failing to live up to the favorite status.
Push
Take Slip·May 3, 2024
#PMT-2024-0503-9618
Randy MossRandy Moss

Forever Young has travel and track concerns heading into the Derby

Forever Young is the most accomplished Japanese horse that's ever come over here... but I've got two concerns... the travel bothered him... the other thing, the trainer seems to be borderline obsessive about keeping this horse out of this kickback spray in his face.

Forever Young actually ran very well, finishing 3rd in a photo finish, suggesting the travel concerns were minimal.
Win
Take Slip·May 19, 2023
#PMT-2023-0519-16370
Randy MossRandy Moss

National Treasure will win the Preakness Stakes

I'll take National Treasure. I think he's gonna control the pace... to me that gives him the edge.

National Treasure won the 2023 Preakness Stakes.
Loss
Take Slip·May 19, 2023
#PMT-2023-0519-16371
Randy MossRandy Moss

Faiza is the standout favorite for the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes

I think Faiza is a standout in the Black-Eyed Susan... Peterson said no, I'm staying loyal to [Baffert]... she's undefeated.

Faiza finished 3rd in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes; Taxed won the race.
Loss
Take Slip·May 5, 2023
#PMT-2023-0505-6093
Randy MossRandy Moss

Derma Sotogake will win the Kentucky Derby

There are two Japanese horses in the Derby this year. One of them is my pick to win the Derby. He's probably gonna be 7, 8, 9, 10 to one. His name is Derma Sotogake. And in my eyes, not only do you have the Japanese dominance right now, but he, to me, he looks like the fastest horse in the race.

Derma Sotogake finished 6th in the 149th Kentucky Derby. The race was won by Mage.
Void
Take Slip·May 5, 2023
#PMT-2023-0505-6094
Randy MossRandy Moss

Flightline was a better horse than American Pharoah

Secretariat was the best... The four best horses that I've seen... were Secretariat, Flightline, Spectacular Bid, and American Pharoah... I would put 'em in that order. And I know some people think it's heresy to say that Flightline was better than American Pharoah... but I just think that Flightline was better.

This is a subjective historical ranking within horse racing that cannot be definitively proven.
Win
Take Slip·May 20, 2022
#PMT-2022-0520-3099
Randy MossRandy Moss

Early Voting has a rest advantage that could challenge Epicenter in the Preakness

I agree with you. I think that [Epicenter] stands out in the field on paper, but Early Voting would have an edge he'll he'll probably set the pace. Epicenter should be right behind him. And Early Voting does have the edge of rest having not run since the Wood Memorial. So that will help his chances.

Early Voting won the 2022 Preakness Stakes, beating Epicenter.
Win
Take Slip·May 20, 2022
#PMT-2022-0520-3098
Randy MossRandy Moss

The Preakness is historically a better race for fillies than the other Triple Crown races

I do think that the Preakness is usually a better race for fillies. We haven't had a Kentucky Derby, a Philly that's won the Kentucky Derby since winning colors in 1988... But we saw Rachel Alexandra, for example, beat the boys in the Preakness. I think that was 2009, very impressively.

Statistically, fillies have won the Preakness (6) more often than the Derby (3) or Belmont (3).
Loss
Take Slip·May 6, 2022
#PMT-2022-0506-12064
Randy MossRandy Moss

The Japanese horse Crown Pride is a legitimate threat in the Kentucky Derby

Every day in the last two weeks, big cat, it is looking more and more possible... He has been sensational here in Churchill Downs. And this morning he had a workout... everyone was like, holy crap, did you see that Japanese horse work this morning? I mean, the horse looks great.

Crown Pride finished 13th in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.
Loss
Take Slip·May 6, 2022
#PMT-2022-0506-12063
Randy MossRandy Moss

Epicenter is my pick to win the Kentucky Derby

Epicenter is the perfect horse to take advantage of an inside post position because he has tactical speed... I think it's a great post position for Epicenter, probably why that's why I'm picking him.

Epicenter finished second in the 2022 Kentucky Derby, losing to long-shot Rich Strike.
Win
Take Slip·May 14, 2021
#PMT-2021-0514-5083
Randy MossRandy Moss

Medina Spirit will almost certainly be disqualified from the Kentucky Derby

If the split sample comes back, the second sample that Baffert is sending out to verify the presence of beta-methasone in the horse's system, if it comes back positive, the horse is going to be disqualified almost certainly from the Kentucky Derby... I feel pretty confident in saying that the horse will probably be disqualified.

In February 2022, Medina Spirit was officially disqualified from the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
Void
Take Slip·May 14, 2021
#PMT-2021-0514-5084
Randy MossRandy Moss

The medication in Medina Spirit's system made zero difference in the Kentucky Derby outcome

The amount of beta-methasone that he had in his system absolutely positively in my opinion and according to the opinion of some of the top veterinarians that I've talked to made zero difference whatsoever in the way the horse ran in the derby. It was one one millionth of a gram... There's no way that it had any impact at all on the way he ran.

While scientifically supported by many vets due to the low dosage, it remains technically a violation and the causal effect is debated by regulators.
Void
Take Slip·May 14, 2021
#PMT-2021-0514-5085
Randy MossRandy Moss

Jockey changes among elite riders make zero difference in major races

When you're betting and you get into a race like the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness, the jockeys involved are all so good and so competent that the difference between jockey A and jockey B, jockey B and jockey C is negligible... just ignore the rider and focus on the abilities of the horse.

This is a fundamental handicapping philosophy that can't be objectively proven 'right' or 'wrong' but is a professional stance.
Loss
Take Slip·May 14, 2021
#PMT-2021-0514-5086
Randy MossRandy Moss

Bet on a Sacred Life and Some Like It Hot Brown exacta in the Dinner Party Stakes

Chad Brown has a horse in there named Sacred Life that looks like an absolute standout... I think if you hook him up in an exacta with the number one horse, Some Like It Hot Brown... I like the 5-1 Exacta, Sacred Life and Some Like It Hot Brown in the race before the Preakness.

Sacred Life finished 4th and Some Like It Hot Brown finished 2nd. The exacta did not hit.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 30, 2021
#PMT-2021-0430-9866
Randy MossRandy Moss

Essential Quality is a machine but hasn't run a fast race yet

He's just a machine so far... The one knock on him... [is] he's yet to run what most people would consider to be a fast race by Kentucky Derby favorite standards.

Essential Quality finished 4th in the Derby (promoted to 3rd) but went on to win the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes, proving he was elite.
Void
Take Slip·Apr 30, 2021
#PMT-2021-0430-9868
Randy MossRandy Moss

Bob Baffert is the most successful horse trainer of all time

When Bob retires, I think he's in his late 60s, but he's going strong. He'll be the most successful horse trainer of all time.

Baffert holds the record for most Triple Crown race wins, though his legacy has been complicated by drug violations.
Loss
Take Slip·Apr 30, 2021
#PMT-2021-0430-9869
Randy MossRandy Moss

The #1 post position at the Kentucky Derby is not a disadvantage

There's this bs out there that's been out there for years that the number one post position is this horrible disadvantage and it's not... the advantage of saving ground being on the inside around the turns makes the horse run better than his odds would indicate.

Known Agenda, who ran from the #1 hole in 2021, finished 9th.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 30, 2021
#PMT-2021-0430-9870
Randy MossRandy Moss

Essential Quality will NOT win the 2021 Kentucky Derby

I can't tell you who I'm going to pick, but it's not Essential Quality.

Essential Quality finished 4th (eventually 3rd after disqualification), so Moss was correct that he did not win.
Loss
Take Slip·Apr 30, 2021
#PMT-2021-0430-9871
Randy MossRandy Moss

Bet on Endorsed in the 10th race at Churchill Downs on Saturday

There is a horse running Saturday in the 10th race... His name is Endorsed and I will endorse betting on Endorsed... I think the horse is an excellent play.

Endorsed finished 4th in the 2021 Churchill Downs Stakes.
Win
Take Slip·May 3, 2019
#PMT-2019-0503-10873
Randy MossRandy Moss

Bet against Bellafina in the Kentucky Oaks

She looks in those races in California... like a man against boys... [but] she doesn't look very good [at Churchill]. For a horse to have those negatives and to be the favorite, I think it's a good horse to bet against.

Bellafina finished 5th in the 2019 Kentucky Oaks, failing to live up to her favorite status.
Win
Take Slip·May 3, 2019
#PMT-2019-0503-10871
Randy MossRandy Moss

Maximum Security's Florida Derby win was 'phony' because he wasn't pressured

Let's make Maximum Security into the villain... there should be kind of an asterisk by his last win in the Florida Derby because the competition in that race just basically handed him the race... Everybody else just decided to take back, and all of a sudden this horse is just cruising.

Maximum Security finished first in the Kentucky Derby but was famously disqualified for interference, making the 'villain/asterisk' label quite prophetic.
Loss
Take Slip·Jun 8, 2018
#PMT-2018-0608-8557
Randy MossRandy Moss

Justify may be running low on energy heading into the Belmont Stakes

In the Preakness, he wasn't quite as good as he was in the Kentucky Derby... Energy level might be getting a little bit low. He really needed that wire to come up when it did in the Preakness... How much he's got left in the tank is the big question.

Justify won the Belmont Stakes to secure the Triple Crown, proving he had enough in the tank.
Loss
Take Slip·Jun 8, 2018
#PMT-2018-0608-8558
Randy MossRandy Moss

Hofburg and Vino Rosso are the best horses to bet on to beat Justify

I think the two best horses to be betting on in this Belmont are Hofburg and Vino Rosso... Ten of the last 18 years, the Belmont has been won by horses that ran on Kentucky Derby weekend, skipped the Preakness, and waited for the Belmont to be rested.

Justify won the race. Hofburg finished 3rd and Vino Rosso finished 4th.
Loss
Take Slip·Jun 8, 2018
#PMT-2018-0608-8559
Randy MossRandy Moss

Gronkowski the horse does not have much of a chance in the Belmont Stakes

We talked to the trainer, and he doesn't even know what to expect... It's like he's been going up against Class A pitching, and now he's got to go against the Yankees. So you have no idea what to expect. Big, nice, good-looking horse. I don't think he has much of a chance.

Gronkowski actually finished a surprising 2nd in the Belmont Stakes, nearly pulling off the upset.
Win
Take Slip·May 4, 2018
#PMT-2018-0504-6552
Randy MossRandy Moss

The Curse of Apollo in the Kentucky Derby is absolute BS

To be honest with you, 2018, it's absolute BS. It should have gone up in flames six years ago with a horse named Bodie Meister... now this year there are two horses, Justify... and Magnum Moon... it matters not even a little bit.

Justify won the 2018 Kentucky Derby, becoming the first horse since 1882 to win without racing as a two-year-old, effectively ending the curse.
Win
Take Slip·May 4, 2018
#PMT-2018-0504-6553
Randy MossRandy Moss

Justify is the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby

I think Justify is probably the most likely winner, although he's going to be the favorite.

Justify won the 2018 Kentucky Derby and went on to win the Triple Crown.
Loss
Take Slip·May 4, 2018
#PMT-2018-0504-6554
Randy MossRandy Moss

Midnight Bisou will win the Kentucky Oaks

I think the winner of the Oaks is going to be a horse named Midnight Bisou... She comes from behind, makes this electrifying move from off the pace.

Monomoy Girl won the 2018 Kentucky Oaks; Midnight Bisou finished third.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 3, 2017
#PMT-2017-1103-7451
Randy MossRandy Moss

Rushing Fall is the horse to watch in the Friday Breeders' Cup races

There's a horse named Rushing Fall, trained by Chad Brown... She's had two starts. She won them both. Last time out, she looked like an absolute superstar. I think she is on her way to maybe some spectacular things.

Rushing Fall won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on November 3, 2017.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 3, 2017
#PMT-2017-1103-7452
Randy MossRandy Moss

Gun Runner has the best chance to beat Arrogate in the Breeders' Cup Classic

I think this is Gun Runner's race to lose... Gun Runner's got better, Arrogate seems to have gotten a little bit worse and I think this is Gun Runner's race to lose.

Gun Runner won the Breeders' Cup Classic on November 4, 2017.
Win
Take Slip·Jun 9, 2017
#PMT-2017-0609-14605
Randy MossRandy Moss

Winning the Belmont Stakes is less valuable to horse breeders than winning the Derby or Preakness

The mile and a half distance of the Belmont Stakes is such a rarity in American racing that winning the Belmont doesn't mean nearly as much to breeders if you're going to retire to stud than winning the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness. You've got a grand total of one grade one stakes in America running a mile and a half on dirt, and that's the Belmont.

In the world of Thoroughbred breeding, speed and mid-distance versatility (8-10 furlongs) are more highly valued than the 12-furlong endurance required for the Belmont.
Win
Take Slip·Jun 9, 2017
#PMT-2017-0609-14606
Randy MossRandy Moss

Tapwrit is a must-play for the Belmont Stakes trifecta

I think [Tapwrit] is a must play in the trifecta. Absolute must play and maybe even must play in the exactas. Todd Pletcher has this thing figured out... They come into the Belmont, his home track. They're really rested, ready to roll.

Tapwrit actually won the 2017 Belmont Stakes, making this a perfect prediction.
Push
Take Slip·Jun 9, 2017
#PMT-2017-0609-14607
Randy MossRandy Moss

Irish War Cry is the logical favorite to beat in the Belmont Stakes

If [Irish War Cry] runs his best race, he's a daylight winner. You can't say that about any of the other horses in the race. So even though he's the favorite, I think he's the horse to beat.

Irish War Cry finished 2nd, losing to Tapwrit, whom Moss also highlighted.
Loss
Take Slip·May 19, 2017
#PMT-2017-0519-18222
Randy MossRandy Moss

Only Always Dreaming or Classic Empire can win the Preakness

In my opinion, only two horses can win the race, Always Dreaming and Classic Empire. Those are the only two that can win the race. The other horses are various confidence levels of playing in the exotics. I think Cloud Computing is a horse that can be a part of the exotics.

Cloud Computing won the 2017 Preakness Stakes at 13-1 odds, defeating Classic Empire. Always Dreaming finished 8th.
Win
Take Slip·May 19, 2017
#PMT-2017-0519-18223
Randy MossRandy Moss

Don't bet on Ben's Cat in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint because he is too old

Don't bet Ben's Cat. He's a real popular horse that's going to run in the Jim McKay turf sprint. He's 11 years old, which is like playing in the NFL at age 70... Ben's cat being 11 would probably be the equivalent of a 45, 46-year-old player in the NFL.

Ben's Cat finished 9th in the 2017 Jim McKay Turf Sprint, proving Moss's recommendation not to bet on him was correct.
Loss
Take Slip·May 19, 2017
#PMT-2017-0519-18224
Randy MossRandy Moss

Shimmering Aspen will lead from start to finish in the Black-Eyed Susan

Shimmering Aspen, the horse that's won three races and four starts... I think is probably going to go wire-to-wire in the Black Eyed Susan at about four or five to one.

Shimmering Aspen finished 7th in the 2017 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes.
Win
Take Slip·May 5, 2017
#PMT-2017-0505-19684
Randy MossRandy Moss

Classic Empire is bad value for the Kentucky Derby

He's going to be the favorite, and he might be the favorite, and he's not going to be worth the shorter price. [No bet on Classic Empire].

Classic Empire finished 4th in the 2017 Kentucky Derby, validating the 'no bet' advice as he didn't even hit the board for a win/place.
Loss
Take Slip·May 5, 2017
#PMT-2017-0505-19685
Randy MossRandy Moss

Hence is a strong value play at 20-1 for the Kentucky Derby

Whether it's muddy or whether it's not muddy, you want a horse that's got a good chance at a decent price. His name is Hence... He's going to be 20 to 1... Steve Asmussen has never won the Kentucky Derby, but he's one of the best trainers in America, and he's overdue.

Hence finished 11th in the 2017 Kentucky Derby.
Push
Take Slip·Jun 10, 2016
#PMT-2016-0610-18923
Randy MossRandy Moss

Destin is a better play to win the Belmont Stakes than Exaggerator

Destin, who ran in the Kentucky Derby, didn't have the best of trips... Todd Pletcher trains him. Now he gives him five weeks off, and he brings him back to the Belmont fresh. And I think that makes a horse like Destin a much better play than a horse like Exaggerator.

Destin lost by a nose to Creator. Exaggerator finished 11th. While Destin didn't win, Moss's 'better play' take was spot on as Destin nearly won while the favorite failed.
Win
Take Slip·May 20, 2016
#PMT-2016-0520-14084
Randy MossRandy Moss

Nyquist is not a slam dunk to win the Preakness due to weather

There's a probability that it's going to be a hellaciously rainy day on Saturday. [Nyquist] has never run in conditions like that before... Whereas Exaggerator, the horse that he beat in the Derby, has, and he won very impressively in conditions like that.

It rained heavily at Pimlico, and Exaggerator beat Nyquist, who finished third.
Loss
Take Slip·May 20, 2016
#PMT-2016-0520-14087
Randy MossRandy Moss

The horse Lani is a good play for third place in the Preakness

There is a horse that is going to be double digits that I think is set up to run pretty well here and is a good play for third behind the top two, and that would be the Japanese horse, Lani.

Lani finished 5th in the 2016 Preakness.
Win
Take Slip·May 20, 2016
#PMT-2016-0520-14089
Randy MossRandy Moss

American Pharoah was more talented than Nyquist

American Pharoah was a brilliant kind of horse... American Pharoah [was] like a wild horse. Nyquist is sort of like the consummate professional... I think at this point, I would take American Pharoah. I think he has more overall talent than Nyquist.

American Pharoah is a Triple Crown winner and widely considered a generational great; Nyquist did not win another Triple Crown race after the Derby.
Loss
Take Slip·May 6, 2016
#PMT-2016-0506-10285
Randy MossRandy Moss

Danzing Candy is a possible upset pick to lead the Kentucky Derby from start to finish

On the front end, a horse that's going to be about 20, 30 to 1 and has a shot is a horse called Danzing Candy... He'll be on the lead. They'll probably leave him alone on the lead. ... that's a recipe for a possible upset.

Danzing Candy finished 20th (last) in the 2016 Kentucky Derby.
Push
Take Slip·May 6, 2016
#PMT-2016-0506-10287
Randy MossRandy Moss

Sudden Breaking News will be running faster than any other horse at the finish line

There's a horse... his name is Sudden Breaking News. I promise you, he may not win, he may not finish second, he may not finish third. But when the horses cross the finish line, he'll be running faster than any horse in the race.

Sudden Breaking News finished 5th and was indeed gaining ground late, but Nyquist won comfortably.