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Randy Moss

Randy Moss

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2016 — Present
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Randy MossRandy Moss

The Triple Crown schedule must be adjusted as trainers will no longer run horses on two weeks' rest

The Preakness is a classic... but they think it is counterproductive to bring [Sovereignty] back in just two weeks... It's gonna happen more and more frequently in the future until such time as the Triple Crown races become further apart on the calendar.

This is a long-term industry trend that is still unfolding, though the Preakness already saw multiple Derby winners skip it in following years.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

The 2025 Black-eyed Susan field is the weakest the race has seen in a long time

It's, it's not a, honestly, it's not a really good black eye, Susan. Okay. In fact, it's one of the worst black eye Susans that I've seen in a long time in terms of quality... it's a pretty weak field.

The field featured no Grade 1 winners and the speed figures were significantly lower than historical averages.
Push
Randy MossRandy Moss

Clever Again is a strong play to beat the favorite Journalism in the Preakness

There's another horse in the race called Clever Again, trained by Steve Asmussen... he's got speed. He's coming off a really strong race. He's had plenty of rest... I think [he's] a good play to take a shot against Journalism.

Clever Again finished 3rd in the Preakness, while Journalism finished 4th. Neither won, making the take partially correct as an underdog value play.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Fierceness is two to three lengths better than any other horse in the Kentucky Derby field

I think [Fierceness] is two to three lengths better than any other horse right now in the field... I think if he's ridden properly, I think [Fierceness] is, you know, clearly, clearly the horse to beat.

Fierceness finished 15th in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Sovereignty is a much better workhorse at Churchill Downs than he has been in the past

One of those kind of horses... is Sovereignty trained by Bill Mott, stretch runner Godolphin second in the Florida Derby. He is always been just a very average workhorse, and he's looked a lot better in the morning here at Churchill Downs than he has in the past.

Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott for Godolphin, won the 2025 Kentucky Derby at 8.98-1 odds, validating Randy Moss's observation that the horse 'looked a lot better in the morning at Churchill Downs.' The improved workouts translated to a Derby victory.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

A prime Secretariat could not win a race with a 235-pound Big Cat in the saddle

No shot, Big Cat, no shot. I'm sorry to tell you that. [You would finish] probably dead last. Even if you were an accomplished equestrian, at that weight riding Secretariat? No. He'd be up the track.

Thoroughbreds carry ~120 lbs; 235 lbs would be a massive disadvantage that physics supports as race-ending.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

I would bet against the favorite Good Cheer in the Kentucky Oaks

In the Kentucky Oaks, the big favorite is Good Cheer. I think she's worth taking a shot against just because her numbers are not all that great. There's a horse in there named Quiet Side that I think would be worth the play, despite her number 14 post position.

Good Cheer, the favorite, won the 2025 Kentucky Oaks by 2.25 lengths, remaining undefeated at 7-for-7. The bet against Good Cheer would have lost.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Castle Chaos has a great chance to win the Knicks Go at a big price

In the fourth race in the Knicks Go, there's a horse called Castle Chaos... he's 20 to one in the program. I'm telling you, he's got a hell of a chance to win the Knicks Go at a... I'm expecting more like 10 to one, 12 to one. But still, I mean, I think Castle Chaos has a big shot.

Castle Chaos finished 5th in the 2025 Knicks Go Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs. Liberal Arts won the race. Castle Chaos did not have 'a big shot' to win as predicted.
Void
Randy MossRandy Moss

Secretariat was likely racing on anabolic steroids

I think a pretty strong possibility that Secretariat was racing on anabolic steroids. But here's the deal. So were the other horses he was running against. It doesn't really taint his legacy in any way to me because he was an incredibly dominant race horse at a time when pretty much all the horses were running on that stuff.

Steroid use in horse racing wasn't banned in many jurisdictions until the 2000s, making Moss's historical assessment highly plausible, though unprovable due to the era's testing.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Mystic Dan is a bet-against in the Preakness Stakes

I think he is a bet against. He got a perfect trip [in the Derby], which he's probably not gonna get Saturday. He's coming back in two weeks. For all those reasons, from a betting standpoint, I think he's a bet against.

Mystic Dan finished 2nd in the Preakness, losing to Seize the Grey. Betting against him to win was the correct gambling strategy.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Tuscan Gold is the best bet to win the Preakness Stakes

To me, the bet in the Preakness is a horse called Tuscan Gold, trained by Chad Brown. On numbers, he's just as good as Mystic Dan in my opinion... and he should be a higher price.

Tuscan Gold finished 4th in the Preakness and did not win.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Fierceness is the best horse in the Kentucky Derby by three or four lengths

If all the horses run their best races, Fierceness wins the race, hands down. Talent wise, Fierceness is probably three or four lengths better than any other horse in the field.

Fierceness finished 15th in the 2024 Kentucky Derby after a disappointing performance.
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Randy MossRandy Moss

Forever Young has travel and track concerns heading into the Derby

Forever Young is the most accomplished Japanese horse that's ever come over here... but I've got two concerns... the travel bothered him... the other thing, the trainer seems to be borderline obsessive about keeping this horse out of this kickback spray in his face.

Forever Young actually ran very well, finishing 3rd in a photo finish, suggesting the travel concerns were minimal.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Coppi is my favorite bet of the weekend in the Distaff Turf Mile (Race 7) on Saturday

The horse I like the most in the two days for betting purposes is running on Saturday in the seventh race. It's a race called the Distaff Turf Mile and her name is Coppi... The reviews of this horse back at the barn in the mornings have been absolutely glowing.

Coppi finished 7th in the Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes on May 4, 2024.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

National Treasure will win the Preakness Stakes

I'll take National Treasure. I think he's gonna control the pace... to me that gives him the edge.

National Treasure won the 2023 Preakness Stakes.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Faiza is the standout favorite for the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes

I think Faiza is a standout in the Black-Eyed Susan... Peterson said no, I'm staying loyal to [Baffert]... she's undefeated.

Faiza finished 3rd in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes; Taxed won the race.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Derma Sotogake will win the Kentucky Derby

There are two Japanese horses in the Derby this year. One of them is my pick to win the Derby... His name is Derma Sotogake.

Derma Sotogake finished 6th; Mage won the Derby.
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Randy MossRandy Moss

Add Disarm to your Kentucky Derby trifecta because he is a great finisher

If you're looking for a big long shot to throw into the try other than Hit Show, I would say a horse called Disarm who's gonna be a stretcher runner who's doing really well.

Disarm finished 4th in the Derby, just missing the trifecta but validating the 'great finisher' claim by moving up from 13th.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Wet Paint will be very hard to beat in the Kentucky Oaks

It's gonna be hard to beat the favorite, the favorite's name is Wet Paint... She's a horse that's won, I think, three races in a row... I like a Wet Paint South Lawn Exacta.

Wet Paint finished 4th and South Lawn finished 10th in the 2023 Kentucky Oaks; Pretty Mischievous won.
Void
Randy MossRandy Moss

Flightline was a better horse than American Pharoah

Secretariat was the best... The four best horses that I've seen... were Secretariat, Flightline, Spectacular Bid, and American Pharoah... I would put 'em in that order. And I know some people think it's heresy to say that Flightline was better than American Pharoah... but I just think that Flightline was better.

This is a subjective historical ranking within horse racing that cannot be definitively proven.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Early Voting has a rest advantage that could challenge Epicenter in the Preakness

I agree with you. I think that [Epicenter] stands out in the field on paper, but Early Voting would have an edge he'll he'll probably set the pace. Epicenter should be right behind him. And Early Voting does have the edge of rest having not run since the Wood Memorial. So that will help his chances.

Early Voting won the 2022 Preakness Stakes, beating Epicenter.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

The Preakness is historically a better race for fillies than the other Triple Crown races

I do think that the Preakness is usually a better race for fillies. We haven't had a Kentucky Derby, a Philly that's won the Kentucky Derby since winning colors in 1988... But we saw Rachel Alexandra, for example, beat the boys in the Preakness. I think that was 2009, very impressively.

Statistically, fillies have won the Preakness (6) more often than the Derby (3) or Belmont (3).
Void
Randy MossRandy Moss

Don't worry about Taiba's lack of experience in the Kentucky Derby; horse racing has changed and horses run less often now.

No horse in more than a century has won the Kentucky Derby with only two previous lifetime starts. I don't care about that. Staff times have changed and thoroughbred racing horses are running less and less often than they used to. So if you like [Taiba] to win, the Kentucky Derby don't pay any attention to his inexperience.

Taiba finished 8th, so while he didn't win, the claim that inexperience isn't the primary hurdle is a matter of expert opinion on the era.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

The Japanese horse Crown Pride is a legitimate threat in the Kentucky Derby

Every day in the last two weeks, big cat, it is looking more and more possible... He has been sensational here in Churchill Downs. And this morning he had a workout... everyone was like, holy crap, did you see that Japanese horse work this morning? I mean, the horse looks great.

Crown Pride finished 13th in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.
Void
Randy MossRandy Moss

The Kentucky Derby is the best litmus test of greatness of any race in America.

The Derby is probably the best litmus test of greatness of any race in America. So the 20 horses is part of that... what it takes win the Kentucky Derby: the patience, the acceleration, the ability to hit the holes when you need to hit the holes, the overall talent to beat the best horses [of] a generation.

This is a subjective assessment of the race's prestige and difficulty.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Epicenter is my pick to win the Kentucky Derby

Epicenter is the perfect horse to take advantage of an inside post position because he has tactical speed... I think it's a great post position for Epicenter, probably why that's why I'm picking him.

Epicenter finished second in the 2022 Kentucky Derby, losing to long-shot Rich Strike.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Nest is an absolute standout to win the Kentucky Oaks.

I love Nest. Nest is the program favorite, which surprised me... she was the two-year-old filly champion. I think Nest is an absolute standout to win the Kentucky Oaks.

Nest finished 2nd in the Kentucky Oaks, losing to Secret Oath.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Medina Spirit will almost certainly be disqualified from the Kentucky Derby

If the split sample comes back, the second sample that Baffert is sending out to verify the presence of beta-methasone in the horse's system, if it comes back positive, the horse is going to be disqualified almost certainly from the Kentucky Derby... I feel pretty confident in saying that the horse will probably be disqualified.

In February 2022, Medina Spirit was officially disqualified from the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
Void
Randy MossRandy Moss

The medication in Medina Spirit's system made zero difference in the Kentucky Derby outcome

The amount of beta-methasone that he had in his system absolutely positively in my opinion and according to the opinion of some of the top veterinarians that I've talked to made zero difference whatsoever in the way the horse ran in the derby. It was one one millionth of a gram... There's no way that it had any impact at all on the way he ran.

While scientifically supported by many vets due to the low dosage, it remains technically a violation and the causal effect is debated by regulators.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Bet against Medina Spirit in the Preakness because his Kentucky Derby victory was due to an fluke easy pace

If you're a better player, and the odds of the horse in the Preakness reflect what he did in the Kentucky Derby when he got away with such an easy, advantageous trip... then you're supposed to bet against horses like this. So that's the justification against Medina Spirit.

Correct. Medina Spirit finished third in the Preakness Stakes, losing to Rombauer.
Void
Randy MossRandy Moss

Jockey changes among elite riders make zero difference in major races

When you're betting and you get into a race like the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness, the jockeys involved are all so good and so competent that the difference between jockey A and jockey B, jockey B and jockey C is negligible... just ignore the rider and focus on the abilities of the horse.

This is a fundamental handicapping philosophy that can't be objectively proven 'right' or 'wrong' but is a professional stance.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Bet on a Sacred Life and Some Like It Hot Brown exacta in the Dinner Party Stakes

Chad Brown has a horse in there named Sacred Life that looks like an absolute standout... I think if you hook him up in an exacta with the number one horse, Some Like It Hot Brown... I like the 5-1 Exacta, Sacred Life and Some Like It Hot Brown in the race before the Preakness.

Sacred Life finished 4th and Some Like It Hot Brown finished 2nd. The exacta did not hit.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Essential Quality is a machine but hasn't run a fast race yet

He's just a machine so far... The one knock on him... [is] he's yet to run what most people would consider to be a fast race by Kentucky Derby favorite standards.

Essential Quality finished 4th in the Derby (promoted to 3rd) but went on to win the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes, proving he was elite.
Void
Randy MossRandy Moss

Bob Baffert is the most successful horse trainer of all time

When Bob retires, I think he's in his late 60s, but he's going strong. He'll be the most successful horse trainer of all time.

Baffert holds the record for most Triple Crown race wins, though his legacy has been complicated by drug violations.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

The #1 post position at the Kentucky Derby is not a disadvantage

There's this bs out there that's been out there for years that the number one post position is this horrible disadvantage and it's not... the advantage of saving ground being on the inside around the turns makes the horse run better than his odds would indicate.

Known Agenda, who ran from the #1 hole in 2021, finished 9th.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Essential Quality will NOT win the 2021 Kentucky Derby

I can't tell you who I'm going to pick, but it's not Essential Quality.

Essential Quality finished 4th (eventually 3rd after disqualification), so Moss was correct that he did not win.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Bet on Endorsed in the 10th race at Churchill Downs on Saturday

There is a horse running Saturday in the 10th race... His name is Endorsed and I will endorse betting on Endorsed... I think the horse is an excellent play.

Endorsed finished 4th in the 2021 Churchill Downs Stakes.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Maximum Security's Florida Derby win was 'phony' because he wasn't pressured

Let's make Maximum Security into the villain... there should be kind of an asterisk by his last win in the Florida Derby because the competition in that race just basically handed him the race... Everybody else just decided to take back, and all of a sudden this horse is just cruising.

Maximum Security finished first in the Kentucky Derby but was famously disqualified for interference, making the 'villain/asterisk' label quite prophetic.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Game Winner is the best of Bob Baffert's three Kentucky Derby contenders

Game winner, trained by Bob Baffert... I think he's the logical horse. Game winner to me is the best one of the three. He's 0 for 2 this year, but he should have won both those races. I think he's coming up to the race in good fashion.

Game Winner finished 5th in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Improbable (4th) actually finished ahead of him.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Win-Win-Win and By My Standards are the best long shots in the Kentucky Derby

Win-win-win and a horse named By My Standards, who won the Louisiana Derby... anywhere from 18 to 25 to 1. That's about the price win-win-win is going to be, too. I think [Win-win-win] is set up to run a pretty good race.

Win-Win-Win finished 9th and By My Standards finished 11th. Neither hit the board.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Bet against Bellafina in the Kentucky Oaks because she doesn't like the track at Churchill Downs

The favorite in the Oaks is going to be a horse named Bellafina... The only bad race Bellafina has ever had in her life was... here at Churchill Downs. She doesn't look very good [this week]... for a horse to have those negatives and to be the favorite, I think it's a good horse to bet against.

Bellafina finished 5th in the Oaks as the favorite, making Randy's advice to bet against her correct.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Justify may be running low on energy heading into the Belmont Stakes

In the Preakness, he wasn't quite as good as he was in the Kentucky Derby... Energy level might be getting a little bit low. He really needed that wire to come up when it did in the Preakness... How much he's got left in the tank is the big question.

Justify won the Belmont Stakes to secure the Triple Crown, proving he had enough in the tank.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Hofburg and Vino Rosso are the best horses to bet on to beat Justify

I think the two best horses to be betting on in this Belmont are Hofburg and Vino Rosso... Ten of the last 18 years, the Belmont has been won by horses that ran on Kentucky Derby weekend, skipped the Preakness, and waited for the Belmont to be rested.

Justify won the race. Hofburg finished 3rd and Vino Rosso finished 4th.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Free Drop Billy is a strong longshot bet to finish in the Belmont Stakes superfecta

There's another horse in there that fits that profile that's probably going to be 20-1. His name is Free Drop Billy... I think he's got a good shot to be part of, let's say, the Superfecta at a big price.

Free Drop Billy finished 9th out of 10 horses in the 2018 Belmont Stakes.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Call to Mind is the top horse to bet in the Belmont Gold Cup

The horse's name is Call to Mind, M-I-N-D, Call to Mind, number one in the Belmont Gold Cup tomorrow. I don't know what the price is going to be... but there's another horse if you want to hook that one up in some exotics.

Call to Mind won the 2018 Belmont Gold Cup Invitational Stakes on June 8, 2018.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Gronkowski the horse does not have much of a chance in the Belmont Stakes

We talked to the trainer, and he doesn't even know what to expect... It's like he's been going up against Class A pitching, and now he's got to go against the Yankees. So you have no idea what to expect. Big, nice, good-looking horse. I don't think he has much of a chance.

Gronkowski actually finished a surprising 2nd in the Belmont Stakes, nearly pulling off the upset.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

The Curse of Apollo in the Kentucky Derby is absolute BS

To be honest with you, 2018, it's absolute BS. It should have gone up in flames six years ago with a horse named Bodie Meister... now this year there are two horses, Justify... and Magnum Moon... it matters not even a little bit.

Justify won the 2018 Kentucky Derby, becoming the first horse since 1882 to win without racing as a two-year-old, effectively ending the curse.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Justify is the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby

I think Justify is probably the most likely winner, although he's going to be the favorite.

Justify won the 2018 Kentucky Derby and went on to win the Triple Crown.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Midnight Bisou will win the Kentucky Oaks

I think the winner of the Oaks is going to be a horse named Midnight Bisou... She comes from behind, makes this electrifying move from off the pace.

Monomoy Girl won the 2018 Kentucky Oaks; Midnight Bisou finished 3rd.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Mares can continue to race effectively while pregnant

Some of those horses have that special glow. That's when you know they're pregnant. No, seriously. There have been numerous situations in horse racing where Mayors that were just on the verge of retirement and were bred still continue to race and race well for a while while they were carrying a baby. That does happen.

It is a biological fact in thoroughbred racing that mares can and do race during the early stages of pregnancy, sometimes with improved performance due to hormonal changes.

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