PMTPMT DB
Todd McShay

Todd McShay

Guest
2019 — Present
8W·7L·2P·3 open
.529
AVG
.941
SLG
4.2K
SHU
+0.01
TVOA
-0.01
SHRP
-$1.5
BNKRL
5L
STRK
0.0
ENTR
football17 scored

All Takes

Open
Take Slip·Apr 23, 2025
#PMT-2025-0423-10569
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Ashton Jeanty is a better pure runner than Bijan Robinson

I actually think [Ashton Jeanty] is a better pure runner in terms of contact balance churning out yards after contact than Bijan Robinson. There's been six running backs going the top 10 in the last 10 years of the draft... [Ashton Jeanty] is absolutely worth the pick.

As of April 2025, Jeanty's NFL career hasn't started, making the comparison impossible to verify.
Open
Take Slip·Apr 23, 2025
#PMT-2025-0423-10570
Todd McShayTodd McShay

It is more likely that only one quarterback is drafted in the first round than three

There's a growing sense that it's more likely that one quarterback gets drafted in the first round than three. Cam Ward one, Jackson Dart two, Shedeur Sanders three, Tyler Shough four, Jalen Milroe five.

The 2025 NFL draft results will determine if the QB class was indeed valued this lowly by teams.
Open
Take Slip·Apr 23, 2025
#PMT-2025-0423-10571
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Matthew Golden is the best wide receiver in the 2025 draft class

Number one receiver, Matthew Golden. Route running, crispness, 4.29 40-yard dash... top end speed great... caught a crease, he's gone. Vertical speed adjusts to the ball. I like Golden one.

This will be proven over time as these receivers play in the NFL.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 22, 2024
#PMT-2024-0422-4983
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Caleb Williams entering the Chicago Bears is the best situation for a #1 pick in a long time

Caleb comes in and you've got DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Deandre Swift... this is as good as situation as we've seen in a long time. ... You have to go back a while to say which quarterback was in this good of a situation that Caleb Williams is entering into as the number one overall pick in the draft.

The offensive weapons surrounding Caleb Williams (Moore, Allen, Odunze) are statistically much better than typical #1 pick environments.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 22, 2024
#PMT-2024-0422-4984
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Jayden Daniels is clearly the #2 quarterback in the draft over Drake May

There isn't one person I've spoken to that believes that Drake May should be drafted number two over Jaden Daniels. ... That first tier has has been for for teams has always been kind of Caleb and Jaden. And then the second tier is Drake.

Jayden Daniels was indeed drafted 2nd overall by the Commanders, and Drake May 3rd by the Patriots.
Void
Take Slip·Apr 22, 2024
#PMT-2024-0422-4986
Todd McShayTodd McShay

JJ McCarthy will have the best rookie season of any quarterback if he lands in Minnesota

JJ McCarthy could have the best rookie year of all the quarterbacks if he lands in Minnesota, that that's the most desirable spot for these rookie quarterbacks.

McCarthy suffered a season-ending meniscus injury in the preseason and will not play his rookie season.
Loss
Take Slip·Apr 22, 2024
#PMT-2024-0422-4985
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Byron Murphy could be a surprise top 10 pick and the first defensive player drafted

The more people I've talked to in the league, the more I get the sense that Byron Murphy defensive tackle from from Texas could be, and, and, and I, I don't wanna say it's most likely, but if there's gonna be a surprise in the top 10, it's Byron Murphy.

Byron Murphy II was drafted 16th overall by the Seahawks. Laiatu Latu (15th) was the first defensive player drafted.
Loss
Take Slip·Apr 22, 2024
#PMT-2024-0422-4988
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Lad McConkey will be a first-round draft pick

Lad McConkey from Georgia is, is so dynamic in terms of his route running ability... I'm gonna say he's going in the first round.

Ladd McConkey was drafted with the 34th pick, which is the beginning of the second round.
Loss
Take Slip·Apr 22, 2024
#PMT-2024-0422-4987
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Bo Nix is a second-round talent and will not be drafted in the first round

Bo Nix, everyone puts him at 12 to the [Broncos] ... But Bo Nix, if he doesn't go 12 to Denver is a second round pick according to everybody. ... I think there are five quarterbacks that are gonna go. Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels, JJ, Drake May, JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix. And I think round two is where you'll see Bo Nix.

Bo Nix was drafted 12th overall in the first round by the Denver Broncos.
Loss
Take Slip·Apr 26, 2023
#PMT-2023-0426-2141
Todd McShayTodd McShay

The Houston Texans will not take CJ Stroud at number two

I'm not hearing that anymore. I'm hearing it's coming down to Tyre Wilson from Texas Tech... or Will Anderson, the outside linebacker. I'll be surprised [if they draft a quarterback].

The Texans selected CJ Stroud with the #2 overall pick.
Loss
Take Slip·Apr 26, 2023
#PMT-2023-0426-2142
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Will Levis will be drafted by the Indianapolis Colts at number four

I still, all the information I'm getting is that Will Levis is gonna go [number] four [to the Colts].

The Colts selected Anthony Richardson at #4. Will Levis fell out of the first round entirely and was taken #33 by the Titans.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 26, 2023
#PMT-2023-0426-2144
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Aaron Rodgers will officially be a New York Jet by Wednesday

He will be a jet by Wednesday. Ooh. Ooh. Ooh. So when this runs Aaron... I will be shocked if the two teams have not agreed the terms on Aaron Rodgers going to the New York Jets.

The trade was finalized and reported shortly after this interview was recorded.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 26, 2023
#PMT-2023-0426-2143
Todd McShayTodd McShay

There will be two running backs drafted in the first round

There's gonna be two running backs taken in the first round this year. So if, if you got one of those prop bets and it's one and a half, I believe take the over, it's gonna be two in the first round.

Bijan Robinson (#8) and Jahmyr Gibbs (#12) were both first-round selections.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 27, 2022
#PMT-2022-0427-1362
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Trayvon Walker will be the #1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft

I think Trayvon Walker is going to be the pick for Jacksonville, which is a surprise, but that's based on conversations in the last three, four days. Honestly, I thought all along that they would go with Aiden Hutchinson.

Trayvon Walker was indeed the #1 overall pick.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 27, 2022
#PMT-2022-0427-1363
Todd McShayTodd McShay

No team in the top 19 picks will draft a quarterback unless they trade up

I'll be shocked that if a team in the top 19 picks that didn't trade up, takes a quarterback... I don't see Seattle at nine taking a quarterback. I think you're going to see the run happen where it should happen. These quarterbacks are back half of the first and early second round quarterbacks.

Correct. The first quarterback (Kenny Pickett) wasn't taken until pick 20.
Void
Take Slip·Apr 27, 2022
#PMT-2022-0427-1364
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Wide receiver has become the second most valuable position in the NFL

Wide receiver, you could argue has become the second, most valuable position in the NFL. Just look at all the contracts this off season.

While subjective, the market trends for WR contracts (Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams) support this valuation claim.
Push
Take Slip·Apr 27, 2022
#PMT-2022-0427-1365
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Breece Hall will be the first running back drafted, likely to the Bills at pick 25

If one back is going to go in the first round, I would say it's Breece Hall. And I think the most likely team to take them would be the bills at 25.

Breece Hall was the first RB taken, but he went 36th overall to the Jets, not 25th to the Bills.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 26, 2021
#PMT-2021-0426-2480
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Zach Wilson will be drafted number two overall by the Jets

I know for a fact Zach Wilson is going number two overall to the Jets.

Zach Wilson was indeed selected #2 overall by the New York Jets in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Loss
Take Slip·Apr 26, 2021
#PMT-2021-0426-2483
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Kyle Shanahan wants to draft Mac Jones while the Niners personnel staff prefers Trey Lance

What I'm told is, and from people that I really trust in the league, is that the personnel department would like to take Trey Lance from North Dakota State. But Kyle Shanahan, the head coach, wants to take Mac Jones.

The 49ers drafted Trey Lance, contradicting the prediction that Shanahan would get his way for Jones, though the internal conflict remains a matter of reporting rather than public fact.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 26, 2021
#PMT-2021-0426-2486
Todd McShayTodd McShay

The Falcons are likely to draft Kyle Pitts at number four

I've talked to another really reliable source that thinks that they're going to take Kyle Pitts, the tight end from Florida. So it could be quarterback, quarterback, quarterback for the first three picks. And then Pitts, the tight end, could come off the board at number four to Atlanta.

The Falcons selected Kyle Pitts with the 4th overall pick.
Void
Take Slip·Apr 26, 2021
#PMT-2021-0426-2489
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Jason Oweh is the most difficult evaluation in the draft due to zero sacks

Jason Oweh from Penn State to me is one of the hardest evaluations simply because if you can't get a sack as an edge rusher, then what are we doing here? ... All butt, no sack.

Evaluations are subjective, but Oweh's NFL career has mirrored this, showing great athleticism but inconsistent sack production.
Void
Take Slip·Apr 24, 2019
#PMT-2019-0424-11008
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Josh Rosen has a slightly higher evaluation grade than any quarterback in the 2019 draft class

But I still think [Josh Rosen] is slightly, in terms of my grades, I've got him rated a little bit higher than the quarterbacks in this class.

This is McShay's internal grading system, which is subjective and unverifiable beyond his own statements.
Loss
Take Slip·Apr 24, 2019
#PMT-2019-0424-11009
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Daniel Jones will be a career backup in the NFL

Some guys like me think [Daniel Jones] is a career backup. So it's not nearly as good in terms of the quarterbacks this year.

As of 2024, Daniel Jones has spent most of his career as a starter for the Giants and signed a massive contract extension, though his play quality remains a point of heavy debate.
Push
Take Slip·Apr 24, 2019
#PMT-2019-0424-11011
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Marquise Brown is the next DeSean Jackson

I love Marquise Brown, the wide receiver from Oklahoma. He's 166 pounds... but he's DeSean Jackson, and I'll take that in the top 20.

Brown has been a productive deep threat, but comparing any prospect to an All-Pro like DeSean Jackson is a high bar that Brown hasn't consistently met across his career.