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Todd McShay

Todd McShay

Guest
2019 — Present
18W·10L·2P·1 open
football30 scored

All Takes

Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter are in their own elite tier at the top of the 2025 draft class

There's two guys that are at the top and that's Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter. Like they're in their own tier if you will. Then after that there's, there's a handful of guys.

Both players were high first-round picks, aligning with the elite tier evaluation.
Void
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Ashton Jeanty is a better pure runner than Bijan Robinson

I actually think [Ashton Jeanty] is a better pure runner in terms of contact balance churning out yards after contact than Bijan Robinson. There's been six running backs going the top 10 in the last 10 years of the draft... [Ashton Jeanty] is absolutely worth the pick.

Comparing running backs as pure runners is inherently subjective scouting analysis.
Void
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Brian Daboll is one of only a handful of people in the NFL who genuinely knows how to develop a quarterback

If you hire Brian Daboll, you did so because he is one of the handful, not dozens, handful of human beings on this planet in the NFL that actually know how to develop quarterbacks... this guy is at a very high level in the NFL in terms of offensive coaching.

This is a subjective evaluation of a coach's reputation and past results.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Jackson Dart fits Brian Daboll's quarterback mold much better than Shedeur Sanders

Jackson Dart fits the mold for [Daboll]. Sturdy, mobile, bigger arm than Shedeur... whether it's Shedeur or Tyler Shough or maybe a developmental project in, you know, day two with Jalen Milroe, that fits a lot more than Shedeur... I'm hearing now that he wants to take a quarterback at three... but I also have heard, and it lines up with my football senses that it's not Shedeur.

The Giants did not draft Sanders, eventually taking Jackson Dart later in the first round.
Loss
Todd McShayTodd McShay

It is more likely that only one quarterback is drafted in the first round than three

There's a growing sense that it's more likely that one quarterback gets drafted in the first round than three. Cam Ward one, Jackson Dart two, Shedeur Sanders three, Tyler Shough four... I think it's more likely that one gets drafted than three.

Three quarterbacks (Ward, Dart, Sanders) were actually drafted in the first round, making this incorrect.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Grey Zabel is the most athletic interior offensive lineman in the 2025 draft class

Grey Zabel moves differently than every interior offensive lineman this draft. I think he could go as high as 18 to Seattle.

Zabel was drafted in the first round (22nd overall) and cited for his elite movement traits.
Open
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Matthew Golden is the best wide receiver in the 2025 draft class

Number one receiver, Matthew Golden. Route running, crispness, 4.29 40-yard dash... top end speed great... caught a crease, he's gone. Vertical speed adjusts to the ball. I like Golden one.

This will be proven over time as these receivers play in the NFL.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Caleb Williams entering the Chicago Bears is the best situation for a #1 pick in a long time

Caleb comes in and you've got DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Deandre Swift... this is as good as situation as we've seen in a long time. ... You have to go back a while to say which quarterback was in this good of a situation that Caleb Williams is entering into as the number one overall pick in the draft.

The offensive weapons surrounding Caleb Williams (Moore, Allen, Odunze) are statistically much better than typical #1 pick environments.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Jayden Daniels is clearly the #2 quarterback in the draft over Drake May

There isn't one person I've spoken to that believes that Drake May should be drafted number two over Jaden Daniels. ... That first tier has has been for for teams has always been kind of Caleb and Jaden. And then the second tier is Drake.

Jayden Daniels was indeed drafted 2nd overall by the Commanders, and Drake May 3rd by the Patriots.
Void
Todd McShayTodd McShay

JJ McCarthy will have the best rookie season of any quarterback if he lands in Minnesota

JJ McCarthy could have the best rookie year of all the quarterbacks if he lands in Minnesota, that that's the most desirable spot for these rookie quarterbacks.

McCarthy suffered a season-ending meniscus injury in the preseason and will not play his rookie season.
Loss
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Byron Murphy could be a surprise top 10 pick and the first defensive player drafted

The more people I've talked to in the league, the more I get the sense that Byron Murphy defensive tackle from from Texas could be, and, and, and I, I don't wanna say it's most likely, but if there's gonna be a surprise in the top 10, it's Byron Murphy.

Byron Murphy II was drafted 16th overall by the Seahawks. Laiatu Latu (15th) was the first defensive player drafted.
Loss
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Ladd McConkey will be a first-round draft pick

Ladd McConkey from Georgia is, is so dynamic in terms of his route running ability... I'm gonna say he's going in the first round.

Ladd McConkey was drafted in the second round, pick #34 overall.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Michael Penix Jr. will be a first-round draft pick despite concerns about his durability

I think Michael Penix is gonna go in the first round. ... He's the best pure passer in this class. ... But it's the lack of mobility in the pocket and then the durability. ... I worry about him holding up. ... You're starting to hear somewhere in the, in the first, I've, I've even heard rumors, maybe the Raiders at 13. I think Michael Penix goes in the first round.

Michael Penix Jr. was drafted #8 overall by the Atlanta Falcons.
Loss
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Bo Nix is a second-round talent and will not be drafted in the first round

Bo Nix, everyone puts him at 12 to the [Broncos] ... But Bo Nix, if he doesn't go 12 to Denver is a second round pick according to everybody. ... I think round two is where you'll see Bo Nix.

Bo Nix was drafted #12 overall by the Denver Broncos.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Nate Wiggins is ready to start immediately in the NFL and is an elite cornerback talent

Nate Wiggins [from] Clemson... burner. ... He could play off coverage press coverage. He played zone and man. I think that that Nate Wiggins is gonna wind up being a really good cornerback. ... I think he's ready to start right away.

Nate Wiggins had a strong rookie season for the Ravens in 2024. He started, recorded 33 tackles, 13 passes defended, allowed no touchdowns in coverage during the regular season, and had a 47.8% completion rate when targeted with a 66.7 passer rating allowed. He ranked top-5 in lowest opposing passer rating among qualifying corners.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Jonathan Brooks will be the first running back selected in the NFL Draft

Jonathan Brooks should be the first running back off the board coming out of Texas. I think there's gonna be a bunch of guys in the third, fourth, fifth round range.

Jonathan Brooks was the first running back drafted, going #46 overall to the Panthers.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

The 2023 NFL draft class features the best tight end group in over 20 years

This might be the best tight end group that I've been a part of in the NFL draft in 22 years of doing it. Everyone knows about Dalton Kincaid from Utah... Michael Mayer from Notre Dame is gonna be a stud... Luke Musgrave, Sam LaPorta... the list goes on and on.

The 2023 tight end class proved to be historically productive, with Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid having immediate high-level impacts as rookies.
Loss
Todd McShayTodd McShay

The Houston Texans will not take CJ Stroud at number two

I'm not hearing that anymore. I'm hearing it's coming down to Tyree Wilson from Texas Tech... or Will Anderson, the outside linebacker. I'll be surprised if they take a quarterback at two.

The Texans selected CJ Stroud with the second overall pick.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

CJ Stroud is definitively the best pure pocket passer in the 2023 NFL draft class

I mean, find me a better tape than [CJ] Stroud versus Georgia. I mean, that's an NFL defense. And what he did, he just ripped them apart. He almost ended the Georgia run. And I just think he's the best pure pocket passer in the class.

Stroud's historic rookie season in Houston proved him to be an elite pocket passer immediately.
Loss
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Will Levis will be drafted by the Indianapolis Colts at number four

I still, all the information I'm getting is that Will Levis is gonna go [number] four [to the Colts].

The Colts selected Anthony Richardson at #4. Will Levis fell out of the first round entirely and was taken #33 by the Titans.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Jalen Carter is the most talented player in the draft but could fall to the Chicago Bears at number nine

Jalen Carter, arguably the best player in this draft, I would say from talent standpoint, my tape study, he's the best player in the draft. But if [Carter] doesn't go five six... Jalen Carter... could go number nine to Chicago.

Jalen Carter was indeed drafted at #9, though the Eagles traded up with Chicago to take him there.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Aaron Rodgers will officially be a New York Jet by Wednesday

He will be a jet by Wednesday. Ooh. Ooh. Ooh. So when this runs Aaron... I will be shocked if the two teams have not agreed the terms on Aaron Rodgers going to the New York Jets.

The trade was finalized and reported shortly after this interview was recorded.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

There will be two running backs drafted in the first round

There's gonna be two running backs taken in the first round this year. So if, if you got one of those prop bets and it's one and a half, I believe take the over, it's gonna be two in the first round.

Bijan Robinson (#8) and Jahmyr Gibbs (#12) were both first-round selections.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Trayvon Walker will be the #1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft

I think Trayvon Walker is going to be the pick for Jacksonville, which is a surprise, but that's based on conversations in the last three, four days. Honestly, I thought all along that they would go with Aiden Hutchinson.

Trayvon Walker was indeed the #1 overall pick.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

No team in the top 19 picks will draft a quarterback unless they trade up

I'll be shocked that if a team in the top 19 picks that didn't trade up, takes a quarterback... I don't see Seattle at nine taking a quarterback. I think you're going to see the run happen where it should happen. These quarterbacks are back half of the first and early second round quarterbacks.

Correct. The first quarterback (Kenny Pickett) wasn't taken until pick 20.
Void
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Wide receiver has become the second most valuable position in the NFL

Wide receiver, you could argue has become the second, most valuable position in the NFL. Just look at all the contracts this off season.

While subjective, the market trends for WR contracts (Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams) support this valuation claim.
Push
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Breece Hall will be the first running back drafted, likely to the Bills at pick 25

If one back is going to go in the first round, I would say it's Breece Hall. And I think the most likely team to take them would be the bills at 25.

Breece Hall was the first RB taken, but he went 36th overall to the Jets, not 25th to the Bills.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Zach Wilson will be drafted number two overall by the Jets

I know for a fact Zach Wilson is going number two overall to the Jets.

Zach Wilson was indeed selected #2 overall by the New York Jets in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Loss
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Kyle Shanahan wants to draft Mac Jones while the Niners personnel staff prefers Trey Lance

What I'm told is, and from people that I really trust in the league, is that the personnel department would like to take Trey Lance from North Dakota State. But Kyle Shanahan, the head coach, wants to take Mac Jones.

The 49ers drafted Trey Lance, contradicting the prediction that Shanahan would get his way for Jones, though the internal conflict remains a matter of reporting rather than public fact.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

The Falcons are likely to draft Kyle Pitts at number four

I've talked to another really reliable source that thinks that they're going to take Kyle Pitts, the tight end from Florida. So it could be quarterback, quarterback, quarterback for the first three picks. And then Pitts, the tight end, could come off the board at number four to Atlanta.

The Falcons selected Kyle Pitts with the 4th overall pick.
Loss
Todd McShayTodd McShay

The Patriots are more likely to trade back than trade up in the first round

I don't think [trading up] is going to be New England based on my sources. I think New England is more likely to trade back than they are to move up.

The Patriots stayed at pick 15 and drafted Mac Jones.
Loss
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Washington, Chicago, and New England all have interest in drafting Davis Mills in the second round

I'm told Washington, Chicago, and New England all have interest in [Davis Mills] in the second round. [David Shaw] said he's the closest thing that we've had since [Andrew Luck] in terms of physical tools.

None of these teams drafted Mills; he was selected by the Houston Texans in the 3rd round.
Void
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Jason Oweh is the most difficult evaluation in the draft due to zero sacks

Jason Oweh from Penn State to me is one of the hardest evaluations simply because if you can't get a sack as an edge rusher, then what are we doing here? ... All butt, no sack.

Evaluations are subjective, but Oweh's NFL career has mirrored this, showing great athleticism but inconsistent sack production.
Void
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Josh Rosen has a slightly higher evaluation grade than any quarterback in the 2019 draft class

But I still think [Josh Rosen] is slightly, in terms of my grades, I've got him rated a little bit higher than the quarterbacks in this class.

This is McShay's internal grading system, which is subjective and unverifiable beyond his own statements.
Loss
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Daniel Jones will be a career backup in the NFL

Some guys like me think [Daniel Jones] is a career backup. So it's not nearly as good in terms of the quarterbacks this year.

As of 2024, Daniel Jones has spent most of his career as a starter for the Giants and signed a massive contract extension, though his play quality remains a point of heavy debate.
Push
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Marquise Brown is the next DeSean Jackson

I love Marquise Brown, the wide receiver from Oklahoma. He's 166 pounds... but he's DeSean Jackson, and I'll take that in the top 20.

Brown has been a productive deep threat, but comparing any prospect to an All-Pro like DeSean Jackson is a high bar that Brown hasn't consistently met across his career.
Win
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Deebo Samuel is the most talented wide receiver in the 2019 class outside of Marquise Brown

I'll go Debo Samuel. ... I think he's the most talented receiver outside of Marquise Brown in this class. South Carolina, production, slot receiver, big guy, can run after the catch, can help in the return game... Deebo's a dude.

This turned out to be an excellent take as Deebo became a versatile First-Team All-Pro.

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