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Kirk Herbstreit, Week 18 Picks & Preview And The Bet Comes Down To It + Fyre Fest Of The Week

Friday, January 6, 202312 takes

Week 18 is here and we get ready for it with some great news about Damar Hamlin (-). We then discuss the final week of the bowling bet and what’s at stake (-) . Picks and Preview with playoff scenarios (-). Kirk Herbstreit joins the show to talk about his first season calling NFL, his crazy schedule, CFB National Championship and tons more (-). We finish with Fyre Fest of the week (-).

Kirk Herbstreit on NFL/CFB Grinds and Week 18 Betting Stakes

The vibes are high following the incredible news that Damar Hamlin has woken up and is communicating. Big Cat and PFT immediately recognized the elite 'football guy' energy of Hamlin asking who won the game before anything else. While the NFL figures out the logistics of the Bills-Bengals situation, PFT has a proposal to keep things level across the league.

Loss
Jan 6, 2023·NFL Preview
#6903
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The NFL should expand to eight playoff seeds in both conferences to make the field fair for everyone

There's another possible outcome that we can have here. This is the one that I think that they should do. This seems to be the most fair one. They are considering giving eight seeds in the AFC as well as the NFC. Ooh. Because the nurse back, that would be more fair if you can't just have, you know, the the number one seed in the NFC, get a leg up and get that buy week if the AFC doesn't get it. Right. So I think that that's the fairest way to go about it.

The NFL did not expand the playoffs; they settled the AFC issues with neutral site contingencies.

They also floated the idea of a neutral site for the AFC Championship, with Big Cat naturally gravitating toward a city that offers the most potential for comedy at the expense of its residents.

Loss
Jan 6, 2023
#6904
Big CatBig Cat

The AFC Championship Game should be played at a neutral site in Detroit

Let's be honest, the answer is Detroit. Because it's always Detroit for these games. And then we'd also have the joke of like, this team has won more games in Detroit—playoff games in Detroit—than Detroit in the last 30 years. You just gotta always fall back to what is the trivia answer that would hurt Detroit the most.

While Detroit was considered, the NFL eventually settled on Atlanta (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) as the potential neutral site for the 2022-23 AFC Championship game.

The High-Stakes Bowling Bet

It is the final week of the regular season, which means the bowling bet is coming down to the wire. Max and Big Cat are neck-and-neck, while Jake is trying to claw his way out of the basement to avoid the nightmare scenario of bowling a perfect game while consuming an ungodly amount of hot dogs and beer. To raise the stakes, anyone who goes 0-4 this week has to tweet out the infamous Ray Allen tweet and leave it up for 24 hours without explanation.

Big Cat is approaching Week 18 with a specific strategy involving the Houston Texans and their head coach's history of business decisions.

Loss
Jan 6, 2023·Picks
#29446
Big CatBig Cat

Lovie Smith will purposely tank the Week 18 game against the Colts to secure the #1 overall pick

Lovie Smith, there's precedent for him tanking at the end of a season. If you remember in 2014, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers... basically tanked in real life. He tanked right as we were watching it. He tanked that game. I think he will do the same in this game. Even if they get a lead, he will make sure that they find a way to lose.

Lovie Smith famously did the opposite: the Texans won on a last-second TD and 2-point conversion, giving the #1 pick to the Bears.

Meanwhile, PFT is doubling down on the Chargers as they head into Denver, despite the risk of buying into their usual brand of chaos.

Loss
Jan 6, 2023·Picks
#29447
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Chargers will beat the Broncos by at least a touchdown in Week 18

I love the Chargers. I can't believe how much I love the Chargers this weekend. And this again, it might be me continuing to buy into the Chargers bullshit. But I think that the Chargers win this. I'm gonna adjust the line on this now... Go charges minus six and a half.

The Chargers lost to the Broncos 31-28.

Before the picks wrapped up, Big Cat took a moment to lobby for a legend who has been unfairly snubbed by the Hall of Fame voters, citing a stat that proves just how much heavy lifting Steve Smith Sr. did during his career.

Loss
Jan 6, 2023
#6905
Big CatBig Cat

Steve Smith Sr. belongs in the Hall of Fame based on his Triple Crown stats with Jake Delhomme

Steve Smith should be a hall of famer. He should make it, he's like eighth all time in receiving yards. I think he's top 15 in touchdowns. But here's the stat that really should put him in... There's only four guys who have won the triple crown... Sterling Sharpe with Brett Favre, Jerry Rice with Joe Montana, Cooper Kupp last year, and then Steve Smith with Jake Delhomme. That tells you how good he is.

Steve Smith Sr. was not inducted in the 2026 Hall of Fame class (Brees, Fitzgerald, Kuechly, Vinatieri, Craig).

For the Saturday night showdown, Big Cat is trusting Mike Vrabel to do what he does best: make the game as ugly and low-scoring as possible.

Win
Jan 6, 2023·Picks
#29448
Big CatBig Cat

The Titans defense will be well-rested and keep the Jaguars game under 40 points

The under in the Jaguars Titans is my game under 40. I don't, I don't see how they're gonna score. I think this is, you know what, we've all been waiting for the Vrabel game. I think this is the Vrabel game... their defense is gonna be as well rested as been in a long time. This is the Vrabel game.

The Jaguars won 20-16, for a total of 36 points, so the under hit.

Kirk Herbstreit on the Grind

Kirk Herbstreit joined the show during what has been a marathon season for him, juggling Thursday Night Football, College GameDay, and Saturday night broadcasts. He gave a peak behind the curtain of the Amazon booth, specifically detailing Al Michaels' legendary halftime ritual that involves high-end cutlery and absolutely zero vegetables.

Win
Jan 6, 2023
#6906
Kirk HerbstreitKirk Herbstreit

Al Michaels has a full 'fine dining' steak and shrimp dinner with silverware during halftime of NFL games

This dude, we get to halftime... He's got like steak. Oh, like shrimp. He doesn't touch the mashed potatoes but, and he's, and and they've got like real silverware and they got a plate and then, you know, you only have eight minutes at halftime... headphones are off back behind that screen and they got a table set and it's like fine dining for eight minutes.

Herbstreit is an eyewitness to this behavior in the booth.

Kirk discussed the transition to the NFL and noted that while the pro game is the pinnacle of the sport, the atmosphere often feels sterilized compared to the cathedrals of the SEC.

Void
Jan 6, 2023
#29449
Kirk HerbstreitKirk Herbstreit

The AFC Championship energy doesn't compare to an SEC night game until the postseason

The biggest difference is the energy. When you go to Knoxville or you go to Baton Rouge or you go to State College on a Saturday night is very different from an N F L atmosphere until probably you get to the post season. So I, I'm, I'm incredibly spoiled by what you experience in a college atmosphere. And then to go into it was almost like the energy, some of the games we did was like calling a Wisconsin spring game, you know, as far as like the crowd noise. It was just like there was no juice.

This is a subjective comparison of atmospheres.

Looking ahead to Monday night’s National Championship, Kirk expects TCU and Georgia to trade blows in a high-scoring affair that defies the usual defensive slog of a title game.

Push
Jan 6, 2023
#6907
Kirk HerbstreitKirk Herbstreit

The TCU vs. Georgia National Championship game will be a high-scoring shootout over 60 points

Somebody told me the over-under's like in the sixties. I think this is another game over that. I think it's another game early kind of feel each other and then after that it's gonna be back and forth. You know, I think it's in the high thirties, low forties kind of like the two semi-final games. I'd be surprised if it's not a shootout.

Georgia won 65-7. The total score (72) went over the total of 62.5, but it was the opposite of a shootout—it was one of the most lopsided blowouts in championship history.

He also weighed in on the power shift in college football, suggesting that the era of Alabama being the default standard might finally be over.

Win
Jan 6, 2023
#6908
Kirk HerbstreitKirk Herbstreit

If Georgia wins the National Championship, they are officially the new standard in college football, replacing Alabama

The new champ should be, we want Georgia. Like Georgia has become the new standard and if they win Monday night, without question, even if they don't win, I feel like they've arrived to that point. They win Monday night, there's a new sheriff in town. You know, it's Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs.

Georgia won the 2023 title back-to-back and remained the #1 team for the majority of the following season, while Saban retired in early 2024.

Super Bowl Predictions and Fyre Fest

Before letting him go, Kirk threw out his official Super Bowl pick, putting his faith in Mr. Irrelevant and the 49ers' system to overcome Patrick Mahomes.

Loss
Jan 6, 2023
#6909
Kirk HerbstreitKirk Herbstreit

The 49ers will beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl

Gimme 49ers-Chiefs in the Super Bowl and I'm going 49ers. I'm gonna win it all. Brock Purdy.

The 49ers and Chiefs did play in Super Bowl LVIII (a year later than this prediction, though the prediction was for the current 2022-23 season). In the 2022-23 season, the 49ers lost the NFC Championship to the Eagles, and the Chiefs beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Herbstreit's predicted winner (49ers) lost in the 2023 season as well.

He thinks the success of guys like Brock Purdy, Stetson Bennett, and Max Duggan is going to fundamentally change how NFL front offices look at the quarterback position during the draft process.

Void
Jan 6, 2023
#6911
Kirk HerbstreitKirk Herbstreit

Brock Purdy's success will change how NFL teams evaluate veteran college quarterbacks over 'workout' prospects

It's gonna change the evaluation on quarterbacks moving forward. Like was Zach Wilson who was doing the spin move in the throw at his workout, and Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant, who was a four-year starter. I think it's gonna change guys like Stetson Bennett or Max Duggan... those guys who played a ton of football, they're all gonna be looked at differently.

While experience is valued, high-ceiling physical prospects like Anthony Richardson still go top 5. However, late-round 'experienced' QBs like Stetson Bennett and Bo Nix (later) have seen draft stock boosts attributed to this shift.

The show wrapped up with Fyre Fest of the week. Hank is currently dealing with a 'slat problem' at his new apartment that has him sinking into the middle of his bed like he's sleeping in a taco. PFT highlighted the awkward social standoff happening in every fantasy football group chat in America regarding how to handle the championship payouts.

Good luck to everyone's parlays, and more importantly, good luck to everyone's dignity during the Ray Allen tweet challenge.

nflcollege-footballbettingkirk-herbstreitfyre-fest

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