Warren Sharp

The Packers' defense is 'fraudulent'

I like the Packers defense, but I do think that it is a little bit fraudulent, could get exposed by the right offense. And I just don't know if this is the right team to do it. I think this easily could be a Rams cover defense.

Josh Allen struggles significantly when he is pressured

Josh Allen has faced eight top 10 blitz heavy teams... and he's done well against the blitz. But there's a difference between a blitz and pressure... And Josh Allen has massively bad splits when he is being pressured.

Mark Andrews will have a big game against the Bills

I think Mark Andrews is the key guy that you want to be looking at to have a big game for Baltimore. I think regardless of what Buffalo ends up doing, they stink covering tight ends. So I think Mark Andrews is going to have a big game here.

Travis Kelce will have a massive game against the Browns' linebackers

I like Travis Kelce. I think he's going to have a really big game against the Cleveland Browns' linebackers.

There is no fix for the Seahawks defense because their personnel is simply bad

It's tough on that side of the ball. I really don't know if there is a legitimate fix because their personnel are bad. So I don't know really what you can do to fix your personnel issues.

The Ravens offense has become predictable because they don't allow Lamar Jackson to audible at the line

I do sense a little bit of the predictability... I wanted to see the start of the season, a little bit more ability for Lamar to come to the line of scrimmage and audible based upon how many men were in the box... But so often Lamar comes to the line and just, they just call the play that whatever's been called, regardless of how the defense appears to be matching up with them.

The Raiders are not a legitimate postseason threat despite their 6-3 record

The Raiders are an interesting team... I still don't think that this team is a team that's going to go far in the postseason, even though they're 6-3.

The Packers defense is soft and will struggle in the late season

I think that their defense—I know they get a couple corners back, but I think their defense is somewhat soft and finesse a little bit. I think that you can have some success on this defense... they probably will have a little bit of difficulty when it gets late in the season.

No NFC wildcard team will want to play the Eagles in Philadelphia once Carson Wentz simplifies his game

The other teams in the NFC playoffs are not going to want to go on the road... to Philly in the postseason when they're playing healthy... if you simplify life for Carson Wentz, reduce the amount of deeper drops where he's running all around in the pocket and trying to do all these complicated things just drop back and throw the ball.

Alex Smith will be more efficient if Washington uses quick drops and shorter passes to Terry McLaurin

Alex Smith... he's taken a lot of three and five step drops from shotgun. And those are very inefficient for him... The goal for [Washington] should just be to get the ball out of his hands quickly. It doesn't have to be deep balls down the field... get the ball out of his hands quickly to minimize the impact of his legs on the game.

Justin Jefferson must be the centerpiece of the Vikings offense over Dalvin Cook

You can't throw the ball too little to Justin Jefferson, too much to Justin Jefferson. This dude is a complete freak. And it just sickens me... to see this offense run the ball first down after first down with Dalvin Cook picking up three yards... Just throw the ball more to [Jefferson] and stop running the ball on first downs with Dalvin Cook.

The Eagles are better than their record indicates and will improve when healthy

A team I think that's easy to say is better than what the record is is the Philadelphia Eagles because of how injuries have derailed them and the performance of Carson Wentz thus far... when they get their offensive lineman back healthy... I think they're a team that's definitely better than what the record is.

The Tennessee Titans are not as good as their 3-0 record suggests

A team that's worse than what their record is... it's the Tennessee Titans. This is not a team that is undefeated three and oh in the NFL. They're a team that barely was able to come back and beat the Denver Broncos, beat the Minnesota Vikings... I don't think that this team is as good as what their record indicates right now.

Fourth down aggression almost always benefits bettors taking the over.

From a betting perspective. It makes a lot of sense because... when a team decides to go for it on fourth down it almost always is beneficial to [the over] because what they're not doing is punting the ball... regardless of what happens on that fourth down play. Somebody's getting the ball probably close to Midfield, which is a lot for Less distance to travel to score points.

Mike McCarthy lied on his job application to Jerry Jones about studying every play of his season off.

The guy openly lied on his job application to Jerry Jones. He completely admitted to the fact he goes in and says I watched every play. I watched the film. I studied the analytics in the offseason then his opening press conference. He comes back and says, by the way, I lied about all of that. I just wanted to get the job coaching the Cowboys.

Dwayne Haskins was benched because he wasn't responding to coaching, not just performance

The bigger issue for Dwayne Haskins is simply was he responding to the coaching... it's about doing what the coaches are asking you to do and having some accountability... I'm hearing Dwayne Haskins was not able to respond to the coaching... at some point they're like, I don't know if this guy's ever going to 'get it'.

Cam Newton is not a long-term answer at quarterback due to his injury history and physical playstyle.

I do think that there is a school of thought that [Cam Newton] you might get a year or two or three out of Cam but the injuries and the way he plays football might compound upon one another. That's it. He's not your long-term answer at quarterback.

Overs will hit at a high rate in the first few weeks of the season

The only thing that we have that's even close to the 2020 preseason and offseason... was the year of the lockout [2011]. ... That season, the first two weeks out the gate, overs went 73%. ... I think by the third and fourth quarters, that's when we're going to see these defenses get worn down a little bit. I think that's one of the bigger things that is going to be evident from having the lack of the preseason games.

The Colts will be a surprise team in 2020

I personally think that Frank Reich is one of the most underrated play callers that we have in the NFL. ... They have since gone out, they've got Philip Rivers. ... I think this is a team that a lot of people kind of forgot about. ... I think the thing that we cannot underestimate here is just how good of a coach and a play caller Frank Reich is and why I think he's going to stamp his name on this football team.

The Cowboys offense will reach a new ceiling under Mike McCarthy

I think that the new coach Mike McCarthy is going to instill a lot more aggressive nature and a lot more passing to this offense. ... We are going from one of the most conservative run-heavy coaches of Jason Garrett to the most aggressive coach in terms of throwing the football down the field in Mike McCarthy. ... I think we're going to see a higher ceiling because they're going to be willing to pass the ball.

The Vikings will regress due to luck and a lack of training camp

I think the Minnesota Vikings are due for a little bit of regression... Minnesota finished top 10 in like injury luck, fumble recovery luck, field goal luck. ... This is an offseason in particular... [with] a lot of new players that are coming in there. ... Just a bad year to have to incorporate a lot of rookies and expect much out of them given the lack of an offseason.

The Vikings' new stadium crowd noise design has given them the best ATS cover rate since 2016

The architects came in and built that stadium specifically to have a roof on it that would refract the crowd noise back onto the football field. And since they built that stadium [in 2016], they have had the number one best ATS cover rate in the NFL.

The Ravens will face the Seahawks in the Super Bowl

I guess I probably will go the Seahawks against the Cowboys [in the NFC Championship]... I'm going to go with the Ravens and I'm going to go with the Chiefs [in the AFC Championship]... I'm going to go Baltimore and Seattle. Russ versus Lamar Jackson for the Super Bowl.

Cam Newton's shoulder is back to being totally normal

I think Cam is healthy. I do from what I've heard, what I've seen, and what I've read. Cam's shoulder is back to being totally normal.

2020 will be the 'Year of the Fullback'

The five of the six teams that use the most fullbacks last season, five of those six made it to the playoffs. ... Think about the teams that have those fullbacks out there to start the year, wearing down those teams, beating on them into the second half. I think that could be an edge. This is the year of the fullback, call it right now, 2020.

The Minnesota Vikings defense is the worst in the NFL against 21 personnel runs

Minnesota is actually the worst defense in the NFL against 21 personnel runs. They allow 6.7 yards per carry and a 74% success rate... And guess who runs the most in the entire NFL? Kyle Shanahan in the 49ers.

Kansas City and Houston will go over 24 points in the first half

I think that Kansas City-Houston over 24 in the first half is an interesting wager. [Big Cat]: Reputation on the line. [Sharp]: I said interesting.

Bill Belichick definitely uses analytics despite his public denials

He's going to deny most everything possible unless there is an advantage to him. And he could easily say, I don't look at analytics... but somebody else there is giving him the research. He's got a team of guys that are using things, including computer vision... and that's all, in a nutshell, analytics is.

The Buffalo Bills are fraudulent because their run defense is weak

Buffalo... you can run on that defense. So I'm going to be interested to see this weekend if the Cleveland Browns can help support Baker Mayfield by running the football a little bit on the Buffalo Bills defense.

Christian McCaffrey will run all over the Packers

I think Christian McCaffrey is going to be able to run all over that team. They rank as one of the worst run defenses. This is the easiest run defense that he will have faced all year.

The Browns will play much better over the second half of the season due to an easier schedule

The Cleveland Browns face a much easier schedule over the second half of the season... their defense is going to face a much easier schedule of opposing offenses down the stretch. I don't know if they can grind their way back into the playoff contention... but they are a team that's going to be playing much better over the second half.

Kyle Allen is the best backup quarterback currently playing in the NFL

It's definitely got to be Kyle Allen to me... from an ability to make the throws at this level, he's got that ability to make those throws more so than most of those other guys that you mentioned [Minshew, Moore, etc].

The Steelers offense has no confidence in Mason Rudolph

They came out with the wildcat... to me that speaks of we don't have a lot of confidence in this guy... they spent our time teaching our running backs to throw the football in this Wildcat grouping... the team doesn't have a lot of confidence in him.

Russell Wilson is currently the best quarterback in the NFL

Russ is the best quarterback in the NFL right now from passer rating, from yards per attempt, from I think he's like second best in completion percentage above expectation when he's under pressure.

The Eagles are more likely to win the NFC East than the Cowboys due to their remaining schedule

If you look at the NFC East, the Eagles actually have the easier schedule over that second half of the season... they have an easier schedule for the NFC East than do the Dallas Cowboys the rest of the way.

NFL teams should run significantly less on first down

They should not be running as much on first down. They need to be passing the ball more. The floor on completion percentage has risen tremendously. So it's a lot more efficient to throw the football and you're not having as many of those risks that coaches get scared about.

Running the ball on 2nd and 10 is the worst thing a coach can do

They opt to run the ball on second and 10, which is the worst thing that you could do on second down because you're very unlikely to have a successful gain and you might as well just pass twice to try to convert that first down as opposed to run then pass.

A quarterback’s performance is almost impossible to evaluate independently of the quality of their play-caller

There's two things that are very difficult to separate out in football. It's very difficult to separate out the performance of a quarterback from his play caller. Those two are like married so tightly together that it's very difficult to understand the context... and then it's, of course, the running back and the offensive line. It's hard to create a value of what is the running back because he's so dependent upon that offensive line.

The Panthers will be much better than their 0-2 record if Cam Newton gets healthy

If Cam gets better, I definitely think the Panthers are much better than what the record indicates. But if Cam still is a problem, I mean, I've actually liked some things that I've seen out of Cincinnati. But I don't see a lot of upside there.

Jared Goff's performance is almost entirely tied to Sean McVay's play-calling

I personally didn't think Jared Goff was worth that contract because I thought so much of what he was doing, his performance, was tied to his head coach... Sean McVay is so great [at] projecting fourth Jared Goff to become better.

Teams should either spread the defense out at the goal line or pass out of heavy sets to maximize efficiency

If you're not the Patriots, you need to spread teams out at the goal line spread them out and run... passing out of heavy sets... is very efficient. But coaches are concerned what the repercussions are going to be. They're concerned what the press is going to say if I stick Adrian Peterson on the bench and I use Chris Thompson and then it doesn't score a touchdown.

The Patriots defense is good enough to carry their offense this season

I said this could be the season that the Patriots defense actually could carry their offense a little bit because I think this Patriots defense is damn good. Really good, really underrated.

In the modern NFL, a high-quality secondary is more valuable than elite edge rushers

Now defense is a lot more about secondary play and takeaways because more teams are passing the football. So if you can get like five good DBs out there, that's more valuable at times than having the massive strength of your edge rushers and having just adequate secondary.

I have high expectations for Josh Allen this season because the Bills fixed their receiving core

What the Bills ended up doing is going in a different direction and bringing in guys like John Brown... guys who are going to get open quickly and find holes in the defense so that Josh Allen no longer has to throw where a defender is nearby, but getting to throw to wide open space... so I have higher expectations of Josh Allen this season than I did in the past.

Downfield laterals will be the next big innovation in the NFL

In the future, more teams will look to do downfield laterals of the football because it's very difficult for the defense. It puts a lot of stress on them... If you design something off of that where you did have some semblance of success, that would be big.