PMTPMT DB
Warren Sharp

Warren Sharp

Guest
2019 — 2021
14W·6L·3P·0 open
.674
AVG
1.348
SLG
2.3K
SHU
+0.51
TVOA
+0.44
SHRP
+$62.5
BNKRL
4W
STRK
0.0
ENTR
football23 scored

All Takes

Win
Take Slip·Jan 15, 2021
#PMT-2021-0115-14657
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Packers' defense is 'fraudulent'

I like the Packers defense, but I do think that it is a little bit fraudulent, could get exposed by the right offense. And I just don't know if this is the right team to do it. I think this easily could be a Rams cover defense.

The Packers defense played well against the Rams but was exposed the following week in the NFC Championship loss to the Buccaneers.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 15, 2021
#PMT-2021-0115-14658
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Josh Allen struggles significantly when he is pressured

Josh Allen has faced eight top 10 blitz heavy teams... and he's done well against the blitz. But there's a difference between a blitz and pressure... And Josh Allen has massively bad splits when he is being pressured.

Statistically, this was true for Allen in early 2021, and the Ravens pressure did limit the Bills to 17 points.
Loss
Take Slip·Jan 15, 2021
#PMT-2021-0115-14659
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Mark Andrews will have a big game against the Bills

I think Mark Andrews is the key guy that you want to be looking at to have a big game for Baltimore. I think regardless of what Buffalo ends up doing, they stink covering tight ends. So I think Mark Andrews is going to have a big game here.

Andrews had only 4 catches for 28 yards in the game, a very quiet performance.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 20, 2020
#PMT-2020-1120-12938
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Raiders are not a legitimate postseason threat despite their 6-3 record

The Raiders are an interesting team... I still don't think that this team is a team that's going to go far in the postseason, even though they're 6-3.

The Raiders went 2-5 the rest of the way in 2020 and finished 8-8, missing the playoffs entirely.
Push
Take Slip·Nov 20, 2020
#PMT-2020-1120-12939
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Packers defense is soft and will struggle in the late season

I think that their defense—I know they get a couple corners back, but I think their defense is somewhat soft and finesse a little bit. I think that you can have some success on this defense... they probably will have a little bit of difficulty when it gets late in the season.

The Packers defense held up well in the regular season but surrendered 31 points to the Bucs in the NFC Championship loss.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 20, 2020
#PMT-2020-1120-12941
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Justin Jefferson must be the centerpiece of the Vikings offense over Dalvin Cook

You can't throw the ball too little to Justin Jefferson, too much to Justin Jefferson. This dude is a complete freak. And it just sickens me... to see this offense run the ball first down after first down with Dalvin Cook picking up three yards... Just throw the ball more to [Jefferson] and stop running the ball on first downs with Dalvin Cook.

Jefferson finished with 1,400 yards as a rookie and became arguably the best WR in the NFL, while the Vikings eventually moved on from Cook.
Loss
Take Slip·Oct 9, 2020
#PMT-2020-1009-14448
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Eagles are better than their record indicates and will improve when healthy

A team I think that's easy to say is better than what the record is is the Philadelphia Eagles because of how injuries have derailed them and the performance of Carson Wentz thus far... when they get their offensive lineman back healthy... I think they're a team that's definitely better than what the record is.

The Eagles did not improve; they finished 4-11-1 and Carson Wentz was benched for Jalen Hurts.
Loss
Take Slip·Oct 9, 2020
#PMT-2020-1009-14447
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Tennessee Titans are not as good as their 3-0 record suggests

A team that's worse than what their record is... it's the Tennessee Titans. This is not a team that is undefeated three and oh in the NFL. They're a team that barely was able to come back and beat the Denver Broncos, beat the Minnesota Vikings... I don't think that this team is as good as what their record indicates right now.

The Titans finished the season 11-5 and reached the playoffs, suggesting they were a legitimately good team despite Sharp's skepticism.
Win
Take Slip·Oct 9, 2020
#PMT-2020-1009-14449
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Dwayne Haskins was benched because he wasn't responding to coaching, not just performance

The bigger issue for Dwayne Haskins is simply was he responding to the coaching... it's about doing what the coaches are asking you to do and having some accountability... I'm hearing Dwayne Haskins was not able to respond to the coaching... at some point they're like, I don't know if this guy's ever going to 'get it'.

Haskins was eventually released by Washington later that season following continued performance and off-field maturity issues, supporting the claim that it was a coaching/culture mismatch.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 8, 2020
#PMT-2020-0908-14591
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Overs will hit at a high rate in the first few weeks of the season

The only thing that we have that's even close to the 2020 preseason and offseason... was the year of the lockout [2011]. ... That season, the first two weeks out the gate, overs went 73%. ... I think by the third and fourth quarters, that's when we're going to see these defenses get worn down a little bit. I think that's one of the bigger things that is going to be evident from having the lack of the preseason games.

In Week 1 of 2020, the over went 9-7. In Week 2, it went 11-5. Sharp's prediction of a high over rate early was largely correct as offenses thrived early.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 8, 2020
#PMT-2020-0908-14592
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Colts will be a surprise team in 2020

I personally think that Frank Reich is one of the most underrated play callers that we have in the NFL. ... They have since gone out, they've got Philip Rivers. ... I think this is a team that a lot of people kind of forgot about. ... I think the thing that we cannot underestimate here is just how good of a coach and a play caller Frank Reich is and why I think he's going to stamp his name on this football team.

The Colts finished 11-5 and made the playoffs, proving Sharp's 'surprise team' label was accurate as they improved significantly over their 7-9 finish in 2019.
Push
Take Slip·Sep 8, 2020
#PMT-2020-0908-14593
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Cowboys offense will reach a new ceiling under Mike McCarthy

I think that the new coach Mike McCarthy is going to instill a lot more aggressive nature and a lot more passing to this offense. ... We are going from one of the most conservative run-heavy coaches of Jason Garrett to the most aggressive coach in terms of throwing the football down the field in Mike McCarthy. ... I think we're going to see a higher ceiling because they're going to be willing to pass the ball.

Before Dak Prescott's season-ending injury in Week 5, the Cowboys offense was on a record-breaking passing pace. However, the season collapsed after the injury, making the 'higher ceiling' difficult to evaluate for the full season.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 8, 2020
#PMT-2020-0908-14594
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Vikings will regress due to luck and a lack of training camp

I think the Minnesota Vikings are due for a little bit of regression... Minnesota finished top 10 in like injury luck, fumble recovery luck, field goal luck. ... This is an offseason in particular... [with] a lot of new players that are coming in there. ... Just a bad year to have to incorporate a lot of rookies and expect much out of them given the lack of an offseason.

The Vikings went from 10-6 in 2019 to 7-9 in 2020, missing the playoffs. Sharp's prediction of regression was spot on.
Loss
Take Slip·Sep 8, 2020
#PMT-2020-0908-14595
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Ravens will face the Seahawks in the Super Bowl

I guess I probably will go the Seahawks against the Cowboys [in the NFC Championship]... I'm going to go with the Ravens and I'm going to go with the Chiefs [in the AFC Championship]... I'm going to go Baltimore and Seattle. Russ versus Lamar Jackson for the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl LV was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. The Ravens lost in the Divisional round and the Seahawks lost in the Wild Card round.
Loss
Take Slip·Sep 8, 2020
#PMT-2020-0908-14596
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

2020 will be the 'Year of the Fullback'

The five of the six teams that use the most fullbacks last season, five of those six made it to the playoffs. ... Think about the teams that have those fullbacks out there to start the year, wearing down those teams, beating on them into the second half. I think that could be an edge. This is the year of the fullback, call it right now, 2020.

While fullbacks remained a niche part of the game, the 2020 season didn't see a massive resurgence or 'year of the fullback' beyond existing heavy users like the Niners and Ravens.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 10, 2020
#PMT-2020-0110-7341
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Minnesota Vikings defense is the worst in the NFL against 21 personnel runs

Minnesota is actually the worst defense in the NFL against 21 personnel runs. They allow 6.7 yards per carry and a 74% success rate... And guess who runs the most in the entire NFL? Kyle Shanahan in the 49ers.

The 49ers ran for 186 yards and 2 TDs against the Vikings in their 27-10 victory, largely validating Sharp's analysis of the matchup advantage.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 10, 2020
#PMT-2020-0110-7343
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Bill Belichick definitely uses analytics despite his public denials

He's going to deny most everything possible unless there is an advantage to him. And he could easily say, I don't look at analytics... but somebody else there is giving him the research. He's got a team of guys that are using things, including computer vision... and that's all, in a nutshell, analytics is.

It is well-documented that the Patriots had an advanced research and development department during their championship runs.
Push
Take Slip·Nov 8, 2019
#PMT-2019-1108-1172
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Buffalo Bills are fraudulent because their run defense is weak

Buffalo... you can run on that defense. So I'm going to be interested to see this weekend if the Cleveland Browns can help support Baker Mayfield by running the football a little bit on the Buffalo Bills defense.

The Bills finished the season 10-6 and made the playoffs, though they did lose to the Browns that weekend 19-16.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 8, 2019
#PMT-2019-1108-1173
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Christian McCaffrey will run all over the Packers

I think Christian McCaffrey is going to be able to run all over that team. They rank as one of the worst run defenses. This is the easiest run defense that he will have faced all year.

McCaffrey had 108 rushing yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, plus 33 receiving yards, though the Panthers lost the game.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 8, 2019
#PMT-2019-1108-1174
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Kirk Cousins performs worse in late kickoffs because he is a creature of habit

I think he's [Kirk Cousins] something like 8-22 when he plays an 8 or a 4:25 kick or later... He must be like super anal, like has this great routine, really comfortable with a 1 o'clock start. But once you get into like the later timeframes, he's just not as comfortable.

The Cousins primetime/late game record has been a long-standing statistical trend throughout his career.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 8, 2019
#PMT-2019-1108-1175
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Steelers offense has no confidence in Mason Rudolph

They came out with the wildcat... to me that speaks of we don't have a lot of confidence in this guy... they spent our time teaching our running backs to throw the football in this Wildcat grouping... the team doesn't have a lot of confidence in him.

Rudolph was eventually benched for Duck Hodges later in the 2019 season.
Void
Take Slip·Sep 20, 2019
#PMT-2019-0920-18301
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

NFL teams should run significantly less on first down

They should not be running as much on first down. They need to be passing the ball more. The floor on completion percentage has risen tremendously. So it's a lot more efficient to throw the football and you're not having as many of those risks that coaches get scared about.

This is a subjective analytical viewpoint, though league-wide passing on first down has indeed increased over the following years as teams embraced this logic.
Void
Take Slip·Sep 20, 2019
#PMT-2019-0920-18302
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Running the ball on 2nd and 10 is the worst thing a coach can do

They opt to run the ball on second and 10, which is the worst thing that you could do on second down because you're very unlikely to have a successful gain and you might as well just pass twice to try to convert that first down as opposed to run then pass.

Data largely supports that running on 2nd and long is a low-value play, making this a highly regarded analytical opinion.
Void
Take Slip·Sep 20, 2019
#PMT-2019-0920-18303
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Panthers will be much better than their 0-2 record if Cam Newton gets healthy

If Cam gets better, I definitely think the Panthers are much better than what the record indicates. But if Cam still is a problem, I mean, I've actually liked some things that I've seen out of Cincinnati. But I don't see a lot of upside there.

Cam Newton's foot injury effectively ended his season shortly after this, and the Panthers finished 5-11. The 'if' condition was never really met.
Void
Take Slip·Sep 20, 2019
#PMT-2019-0920-18304
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Jared Goff's performance is almost entirely tied to Sean McVay's play-calling

I personally didn't think Jared Goff was worth that contract because I thought so much of what he was doing, his performance, was tied to his head coach... Sean McVay is so great [at] projecting fourth Jared Goff to become better.

This is subjective, though Goff's subsequent struggles and eventual trade to Detroit (and McVay's immediate Super Bowl win with Stafford) have retrospectively strengthened this take.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 20, 2019
#PMT-2019-0920-18305
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Patriots defense is good enough to carry their offense this season

I said this could be the season that the Patriots defense actually could carry their offense a little bit because I think this Patriots defense is damn good. Really good, really underrated.

The 2019 Patriots defense was historically dominant, particularly in the first half of the season, and was the primary reason they made the playoffs.
Loss
Take Slip·Sep 20, 2019
#PMT-2019-0920-18306
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Downfield laterals will be the next big innovation in the NFL

In the future, more teams will look to do downfield laterals of the football because it's very difficult for the defense. It puts a lot of stress on them... If you design something off of that where you did have some semblance of success, that would be big.

While used in desperation, downfield laterals have not yet become a staple of offensive systems in the NFL as of 2024.