PMTPMT DB
Tom Fornelli

Tom Fornelli

Guest
2017 — Present
15W·12L·2P·2 open
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college footballfootball29 scored

All Takes

Loss
Take Slip·Oct 8, 2025
#PMT-2025-1008-10500
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Texas A&M is the most surprising SEC team that could run the table the rest of the season

I would say Texas A&M. I do think that they're legitimately good. ... They've kind of figured things out and gotten their act together the last few weeks. ... I'm not saying that they will, I'm just saying they strike me as a team that is much better than anybody truly expected.

Texas A&M did not run the table, losing key late-season matchups.
Void
Take Slip·Oct 8, 2025
#PMT-2025-1008-10501
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Arch Manning looks like an unpolished freshman and is not ready for the SEC

I thought like the last few years sitting on the bench developing behind Quinn Ewers is like we were gonna see a much more polished player than what we have seen to this point. He just looks like a freshman even though he is now in his third year on campus. So I think that is very alarming.

Subjective evaluation of talent, but Manning's subsequent performances were inconsistent.
Win
Take Slip·Oct 8, 2025
#PMT-2025-1008-10502
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Ohio State's defense is definitively better than it was last year

I do think there is an argument to be made that the defense is better than last year's defense. I think [Jim Knowles] is just confusing the ever living crap out of all the quarterbacks that he has faced so far. ... Once they get to the red zone, they're just absolutely clamping down and not giving up anything.

The 2025 Ohio State defense statistically out-performed the 2024 unit in several key metrics including PPG allowed.
Win
Take Slip·Oct 8, 2025
#PMT-2025-1008-10503
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Michigan is a better team than USC and will beat them on the money line

I think the wrong team is favorite in Los Angeles. I think Michigan's a better football team than USC. ... I'm probably just gonna be on the Michigan money line. ... I think Michigan's just much better than they are along the lines of scrimmage.

Michigan defeated USC 27-24.
Void
Take Slip·Aug 29, 2025
#PMT-2025-0829-15272
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Will Howard's performance at Ohio State is a result of elite wide receivers

I think of how Will Howard looked at Kansas State and then I think of how Will Howard looked at Ohio State. Right. Looked a lot different when you have all those guys to throw to. What can really great wide receivers do to an average quarterback? They can lift him up. Right?

Evaluates the quality of a player's performance relative to their environment.
Open
Take Slip·Aug 29, 2025
#PMT-2025-0829-15269
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

LSU will win the National Championship

I picked LSU to win the national title. So I I'm with you on that. I picked 'em to win the SEC too. And it's, it's kind of along with what you just said, like they're, the way that they work, it's like when you don't expect them to be anything is when they're gonna jump up and have a great year.

The 2025 college football season results are pending.
Open
Take Slip·Aug 29, 2025
#PMT-2025-0829-15277
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

West Virginia is this year's Indiana and could surprise the Big 12

Everybody's looking for this year's Indiana... Rich Rod left Jacksonville State, went to West Virginia, brought the entire fucking roster with him... I look at West Virginia, like if that's a future you wanna take instead of taking Jalen Daniel... they could be in the playoff hunt.

Outcome depends on West Virginia's 2025 season performance.
Loss
Take Slip·Aug 30, 2024
#PMT-2024-0830-14181
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Clemson will win the ACC

I have Clemson winning the ACC too. I do think receiver-wise they're gonna be better than they were last year... I think Dabo can win the ACC without using the portal because I don't think the ACC is that good.

Clemson did not win the ACC; SMU defeated Clemson in the regular season and won the conference title over Clemson/Miami/FSU.
Win
Take Slip·Aug 30, 2024
#PMT-2024-0830-14182
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

No team in the Big 12 will finish with fewer than three losses

My hot take about the Big 12 is that nobody is coming outta that league with fewer than three losses. I think it's gonna be a one-bid league.

ASU, BYU, and Iowa State all finished with 3 losses overall. No team had 2 or fewer, so this was technically correct.
Loss
Take Slip·Aug 30, 2024
#PMT-2024-0830-14184
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Nico Iamaleava is the best quarterback in the country

I'm telling you, Nico's [Iamaleava] the best quarterback in the country. Size-wise, talent-wise, ability-wise, fit in the offense that he's in... I already have the future on Nico's Heisman.

Nico Iamaleava was solid but far from the best QB in the country (e.g., Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel, Ashton Jeanty outshined him).
Loss
Take Slip·Aug 30, 2024
#PMT-2024-0830-14185
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Oklahoma will finish with a better SEC record than Texas in their first year

Oklahoma finishes with a better SEC record than Texas. I think Jackson Arnold will be a step forward for them... my concerns about Texas are shared.

Texas finished 11-2 (7-1 SEC); Oklahoma finished 6-6 (1-7 SEC).
Loss
Take Slip·Aug 30, 2023
#PMT-2023-0830-8479
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Georgia's schedule is so easy they are a lock for the CFP and a likely three-peat

Georgia's obviously won the last two national titles. They're probably gonna win a third. ... when I look at Georgia's schedule, there is absolutely no way in hell they are not making the playoffs.

Georgia lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship and was left out of the 4-team College Football Playoff.
Loss
Take Slip·Aug 30, 2023
#PMT-2023-0830-8477
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

LSU is better than Alabama and will win the SEC West

I really, I, I'm not gonna say that the Alabama dynasty is dead, but I feel like it's dying. ... I look at LSU... I just look at that division and I think LSU is better than Alabama this year and they're more likely to win the west.

Alabama defeated LSU 42-28 and won the SEC West title in 2023.
Push
Take Slip·Aug 30, 2023
#PMT-2023-0830-8481
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Iowa will score 31 points per game and win the Big 10 West

I'm on record. They're gonna score 31 points per game and I think they're gonna win the west. I think they are the best team. They're the one I have the fewest questions about.

Iowa won the Big 10 West but averaged only 15.4 points per game, the second-worst in the FBS.
Win
Take Slip·Aug 30, 2023
#PMT-2023-0830-8476
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Texas is the most underrated team in the country and will beat Alabama in Week 2

I was asked for the most underrated team in the country and I chose Texas. ... I really do think this year's Longhorns team is going to be very good. ... I think Texas, if there is an elite team in that conference [Big 12] this year, it is Texas. ... Texas is gonna win that game [against Alabama].

Texas defeated Alabama 34-24 in Week 2 of the 2023 season and won the Big 12.
Loss
Take Slip·Aug 30, 2023
#PMT-2023-0830-8471
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Caleb Williams will win back-to-back Heisman trophies

Caleb Williams is the real fucking deal. ... It's why I think he's the best player in college. It's why I think he'll be the first pick in the draft and it's why I think he's gonna be the first guy to win the Heisman at consecutive years since Archie Griffin.

Jayden Daniels won the 2023 Heisman Trophy; Caleb Williams did not finish in the top three.
Loss
Take Slip·Aug 30, 2023
#PMT-2023-0830-8469
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Texas Tech -14 against Wyoming is a Game of the Year lock

Texas Tech minus 14 against Wyoming... I went full I mean go as many as you're comfortable going, but it's Game of the Year Territory for me. I have Texas Tech minus 14. I also have Texas Tech alternate lines at minus 20. So that's, I'm feeling pretty good about this one.

Texas Tech lost to Wyoming 35-33 in 2OT, failing to cover -14 and losing the game outright.
Void
Take Slip·Dec 23, 2022
#PMT-2022-1223-13602
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Michael Penix Jr. has a stronger arm than Josh Allen

Michael Penix was convinced to come back to Washington... he's not Josh Allen as far as total overall skillset as far as the size. But as far as arm strength is concerned, this kid might have a stronger arm than Josh Allen. ... you can't believe a human is able to throw a football that hard on a line like that.

This is a matter of biomechanics and scouting opinion, though Josh Allen's arm strength is legendary in the NFL.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 23, 2022
#PMT-2022-1223-13603
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Ohio State is being written off as a bad team prematurely after the Michigan loss

I think that there's been a large overreaction to Ohio State losing to Michigan. I think that Ohio State suddenly sucks in the mind of a lot of people because they lost to Michigan two years in a row. ... I think the Buckeyes are still very good. They could win this game [against Georgia].

Ohio State lost 42-41 to Georgia in a game that came down to a missed field goal, proving they were indeed very competitive.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 23, 2022
#PMT-2022-1223-13604
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

The Tulane vs. USC game is a lock to go over the point total

My favorite bet, honestly, the over in Tulane USC. ... Way too low. They're gonna get in seventies for this one.

Tulane won 46-45, for a total of 91 points, easily clearing the total in the low 60s.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 6, 2022
#PMT-2022-0906-7835
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Georgia is better than they were last year

I think Georgia is better than last year's team. I came into this season, thinking Alabama and Ohio State, one of them is going to win the national title... After what I saw on Saturday, I suddenly think that Georgia's probably right up there with those two.

Georgia finished the season 15-0, winning the National Championship in a 65-7 blowout. They were statistically and result-wise superior to the 2021 team.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 6, 2022
#PMT-2022-0906-7836
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud are the two best quarterbacks in the country

I think [C.J. Stroud] and Bryce Young are the two best quarterbacks in the country. I think that they will be Heisman finalists.

Both players were Heisman finalists in 2022 and were the top two picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Loss
Take Slip·Sep 6, 2022
#PMT-2022-0906-7837
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

LSU and Florida State are both just mediocre 7-5 or 8-4 teams

Neither of those teams is very good. Like LSU is gonna be seven and five, Florida State's gonna be seven and five, maybe eight and four in the ACC.

LSU went 10-4 and won the SEC West. FSU went 10-3. Both teams far exceeded Fornelli's prediction.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 6, 2022
#PMT-2022-0906-7839
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Drake Maye is an upgrade over Sam Howell

I think Drake Maye, their new quarterback, is really good... I think that he's just, he's probably an upgrade over Sam Howell, no offense. I know that he's with your Commanders now, but I think that they've got a better quarterback now.

Maye had an incredible 2022 season, throwing for over 4,300 yards and 38 TDs, largely considered a superior collegiate performance to Howell's final year.
Push
Take Slip·Sep 3, 2021
#PMT-2021-0903-9364
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Kansas is the worst Power Five team in college football

Oh, that's a good question. But it's Kansas. [The worst power five team].

Kansas went 2-10 in 2021. While bad, several other P5 teams (like Vanderbilt at 2-10 or Arizona at 1-11) were statistically similar or worse.
Loss
Take Slip·Sep 3, 2021
#PMT-2021-0903-9368
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

A Group of Five team will never make the College Football Playoff in the four-team format

No, a Group of Five team... as long as the playoffs stays at four teams, a Group of Five teams never get again, period. I don't care who they play or what we have to remember who put the playoff together. Yeah. The Power Five. Why did they put it together? For money. They are not going to willfully share that money with a Cincinnati or a Boise State.

Cincinnati became the first Group of Five team to make the CFP later that very season (2021).
Void
Take Slip·Sep 3, 2021
#PMT-2021-0903-9371
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

James Franklin would be magnificent as the head coach at USC

I think James Franklin would be magnificent at USC because the one thing that USC, that you really need to take advantage of if your goal is to win national titles... you need a guy who's really good to try to bring that talent in like Pete Carroll was doing... I think James Franklin is one of the guys who's capable of doing it to be blunt.

Franklin stayed at Penn State, and USC hired Lincoln Riley instead.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 3, 2021
#PMT-2021-0903-9372
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Justin Fields will be the Bears starter by Week 3

And Justin Fields prediction go quick? Week three. [Week three start].

Justin Fields made his first start in Week 3 of the 2021 season against the Browns after Andy Dalton was injured.
Void
Take Slip·Dec 6, 2019
#PMT-2019-1206-16968
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

If Utah wins and Georgia loses, Utah will make the College Football Playoff

I think as long as Utah wins and Georgia loses, they're going to get the four spot... The committee has been ranking them based on being a complete team... Utah has been dominant all season long.

Utah lost the Pac-12 Championship to Oregon 37-15, which eliminated them regardless of other results.
Void
Take Slip·Dec 6, 2019
#PMT-2019-1206-16969
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

ACC is the worst conference ever and Clemson will make the playoff even if they lose

The ACC is the worst conference ever and yeah, Clemson makes the playoff if they lose, for sure. Clemson's biggest opponent will be boredom because the rest of the ACC sucks.

Clemson won the ACC and made the playoff. The claim that they would make it even with a loss is a hypothetical but reflects their dominance.
Loss
Take Slip·Nov 12, 2018
#PMT-2018-1112-20138
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Notre Dame is the most likely top-four team to miss the CFB Playoff

[Predict one of the four teams not making it] Notre Dame. Even over Michigan? Yeah. Because Michigan's got to play Ohio State. I think if you look at Notre Dame, I don't think any of us are going to be surprised if they lose to Syracuse next weekend.

Notre Dame finished the regular season undefeated and did make the College Football Playoff.
Void
Take Slip·Nov 12, 2018
#PMT-2018-1112-20139
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Michigan is currently a better team than Notre Dame

I honestly think Michigan, even though it lost to Notre Dame to start the year, is better than Notre Dame. At least it's playing better... I think Michigan just overall, special teams, defense, and offense has been a better team than Notre Dame.

Subjective, but Notre Dame won the head-to-head and made the playoff while Michigan lost to Ohio State and didn't.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 12, 2018
#PMT-2018-1112-20140
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Ben Mason is the clear number one fullback in college football

Mason's my clear number one. No, Mason, to me, is clearly the best fullback in college right now. He just destroys dudes.

Mason was widely considered one of the best fullbacks of his era and was drafted into the NFL as one.
Void
Take Slip·Nov 12, 2018
#PMT-2018-1112-20141
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Dino Babers would be the ideal hire for USC

If I'm the Trojans, I'd go after [Dino] Babers, honestly. Because I think that he runs an exciting offense. You know, in L.A., you have to sell excitement. I think Babers is a good coach.

USC kept Clay Helton for several more seasons and eventually hired Lincoln Riley. Babers stayed at Syracuse and his stock eventually cooled.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 27, 2017
#PMT-2017-1227-10519
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Josh Rosen is too smart to play for the Cleveland Browns

Between him leaking out that he doesn't want to play for the Browns and between his answer about why he's sitting out and why some players do sit out, I feel like he's way too smart to end up in Cleveland.

The Browns passed on Rosen and took Baker Mayfield. Rosen went to the Cardinals and struggled significantly.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 27, 2017
#PMT-2017-1227-10520
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Alabama will win the National Championship

My heart wants to say Oklahoma, but my head says Alabama, just because, like I've said, I think Alabama's the best team in the country... I just don't think anybody's beating Alabama this year... I think they're going to finish as national title champions once again.

Alabama defeated Georgia in the championship game.
Loss
Take Slip·Dec 1, 2017
#PMT-2017-1201-3639
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Josh Rosen is ready for the NFL now, but Sam Darnold should stay in school

I would take Rosen right now. I think Darnold needs to go back. I mean, I never want to tell a kid to go to school again for another year when he can get paid, but I think as far as being a quarterback is concerned, Darnold would be better going back for another year, whereas I think Rosen's ready to play in the NFL now.

Both players struggled significantly in the NFL. Rosen, despite being 'ready', was a major bust and was traded after one season.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 1, 2017
#PMT-2017-1201-3641
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Georgia will beat and cover against Auburn in the SEC Championship

I think that this week in Atlanta, where it's going to be a far friendlier environment for the Bulldogs, they're going to get back to the run game... So I really like Georgia in this one, not just to cover the two and a half, but just to win.

Georgia beat Auburn 28-7 to win the SEC Championship on December 2, 2017.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 1, 2017
#PMT-2017-1201-3643
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

If Ohio State beats Wisconsin, Alabama will get the 4th playoff spot

If Ohio State beats Wisconsin, I think Alabama will get that spot. As long as Clemson beats Miami, Oklahoma beats TCU, and then it probably doesn't really matter what happens in the SEC title game.

Ohio State beat Wisconsin, and the committee chose Alabama over Ohio State for the 4th playoff spot.