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Tom Fornelli

Tom Fornelli

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2017 — Present
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college footballfootball51 scored

All Takes

Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Curt Cignetti would leave Indiana for the Penn State head coaching job

I think Penn State is one of the jobs [Curt Cignetti] would definitely leave Indiana for. I think there are a lot of jobs that have come open or or likely to come open that he's been mentioned for that I don't really see as upgrades over Indiana. ... I feel like if you're gonna replace James Franklin, you'd need to find your own Dan Lanning kind of hire.

This depends on Penn State firing James Franklin and offering the job to Cignetti, and Cignetti accepting. James Franklin remained at Penn State through the 2025 cycle.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Texas A&M is the most surprising SEC team that could run the table the rest of the season

I would say Texas A&M. I do think that they're legitimately good. ... They've kind of figured things out and gotten their act together the last few weeks. ... I'm not saying that they will, I'm just saying they strike me as a team that is much better than anybody truly expected.

Texas A&M did not run the table, losing key late-season matchups.
Void
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Arch Manning looks like an unpolished freshman and is not ready for the SEC

I thought like the last few years sitting on the bench developing behind Quinn Ewers is like we were gonna see a much more polished player than what we have seen to this point. He just looks like a freshman even though he is now in his third year on campus. So I think that is very alarming.

Subjective evaluation of talent, but Manning's subsequent performances were inconsistent.
Void
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Billy Napier is the best coach ever when his back is against the wall and he's almost fired

Billy Napier with his back against the wall might be the best coach ever. He literally just, just get him, get him almost fired and he'll start performing.

This is a subjective characterization of Napier's coaching tenure and 'clutch' ability under pressure.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Ohio State's defense is definitively better than it was last year

I do think there is an argument to be made that the defense is better than last year's defense. I think [Jim Knowles] is just confusing the ever living crap out of all the quarterbacks that he has faced so far. ... Once they get to the red zone, they're just absolutely clamping down and not giving up anything.

The 2025 Ohio State defense statistically out-performed the 2024 unit in several key metrics including PPG allowed.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Michigan is a better team than USC and will beat them on the money line

I think the wrong team is favorite in Los Angeles. I think Michigan's a better football team than USC. ... I'm probably just gonna be on the Michigan money line. ... I think Michigan's just much better than they are along the lines of scrimmage.

Michigan defeated USC 27-24.
Void
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Will Howard will look much better at Ohio State because of the elite wide receivers around him

I think of how Will Howard looked at Kansas State and then I think of how Will Howard looked at Ohio State. Right. Looked a lot different when you have all those guys to throw to... great receivers can elevate a mediocre quarterback.

Subjective evaluation of how a player's performance is tied to his supporting cast.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold is in for a rocky season with bad reports coming out of camp

I have not heard anything good coming out of Auburn camp about Jackson Arnold. It's just like—you know, he's got insider people. I've heard a lot of negative buzz coming out... it could be a quarterback carousel there, it could be week to week.

Jackson Arnold struggled badly at Auburn in 2025. He was benched during the season, went 136-for-215 with only 6 TDs, contributed to head coach Hugh Freeze's firing, and transferred to UNLV after one season. The negative reports from camp were accurate.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Ole Miss backup Austin Simmons is a legit Heisman longshot at 40-1

I'll give you a long shot quarterback in the SEC: Austin Simmons at Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin still is good at coaching quarterbacks... if Simmons kind of over performs what you would expect from somebody with his lack of experience... he's a left shot though. I think he's like 40 or 50 to one.

Austin Simmons was not a Heisman longshot contender. He suffered an ankle injury in Week 2, was replaced by Trinidad Chambliss (who finished 8th in Heisman voting), and Simmons finished with just 744 yards passing and 4 TDs in 8 appearances. He transferred to Missouri after the season.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

LSU will win the National Championship

I picked LSU to win the national title. So I I'm with you on that. I picked 'em to win the SEC too. And it's, it's kind of along with what you just said, like they're, the way that they work, it's like when you don't expect them to be anything is when they're gonna jump up and have a great year.

LSU did not win the national championship. Indiana won the CFP title.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

West Virginia is this year's Indiana and could surprise the Big 12

Everybody's looking for this year's Indiana... Rich Rod left Jacksonville State, went to West Virginia, brought the entire fucking roster with him... I look at West Virginia, like if that's a future you wanna take instead of taking Jalen Daniel... they could be in the playoff hunt.

West Virginia did not have an Indiana-like surprise season in 2025. They struggled and were not a Big 12 contender.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Clemson will win the ACC

I have Clemson winning the ACC too. I do think receiver-wise they're gonna be better than they were last year... I think Dabo can win the ACC without using the portal because I don't think the ACC is that good.

Clemson did not win the ACC; SMU defeated Clemson in the regular season and won the conference title over Clemson/Miami/FSU.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

No team in the Big 12 will finish with fewer than three losses

My hot take about the Big 12 is that nobody is coming outta that league with fewer than three losses. I think it's gonna be a one-bid league.

ASU, BYU, and Iowa State all finished with 3 losses overall. No team had 2 or fewer, so this was technically correct.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Michigan is good enough defensively and on the lines to potentially win the Big Ten again

I don't see any reason why Michigan can't be as good as [Ohio State] because defensively Michigan's still just as good as Ohio State is... Michigan to me, is one of those teams that in September they might look kind of, yeah, eh, but by the time you get to November... they might be a really good team who's gonna be like the momentum dark horse in the playoff.

Michigan finished the 2024 regular season 6-6, failing to contend for the Big Ten title or the playoff, making this incorrect.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Nico Iamaleava is the best quarterback in the country

I'm telling you, Nico's [Iamaleava] the best quarterback in the country. Size-wise, talent-wise, ability-wise, fit in the offense that he's in... I already have the future on Nico's Heisman.

Nico Iamaleava was solid but far from the best QB in the country (e.g., Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel, Ashton Jeanty outshined him).
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Oklahoma will finish with a better SEC record than Texas in their first year

Oklahoma finishes with a better SEC record than Texas. I think Jackson Arnold will be a step forward for them... my concerns about Texas are shared.

Texas finished 11-2 (7-1 SEC); Oklahoma finished 6-6 (1-7 SEC).
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Georgia's schedule is so easy they are a lock for the CFP and a likely three-peat

Georgia's obviously won the last two national titles. They're probably gonna win a third. ... when I look at Georgia's schedule, there is absolutely no way in hell they are not making the playoffs.

Georgia lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship and was left out of the 4-team College Football Playoff.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

LSU is better than Alabama and will win the SEC West

I really, I, I'm not gonna say that the Alabama dynasty is dead, but I feel like it's dying. ... I look at LSU... I just look at that division and I think LSU is better than Alabama this year and they're more likely to win the west.

Alabama defeated LSU 42-28 and won the SEC West title in 2023.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Penn State has its best chance to win the Big 10 in a long time thanks to Drew Allar

I do think this is [Penn State's] best chance to win the Big 10 in a long time. ... Drew Allar is... the first guy really [since McSorley] who has that kind of attitude, but he's also really fucking good. So I think that could give them a step up.

Penn State finished 10-3 but again lost to both Michigan and Ohio State, failing to make the Big 10 Championship or the Playoff.
Push
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Iowa will score 31 points per game and win the Big 10 West

I'm on record. They're gonna score 31 points per game and I think they're gonna win the west. I think they are the best team. They're the one I have the fewest questions about.

Iowa won the Big 10 West but averaged only 15.4 points per game, the second-worst in the FBS.
Open
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

The Sun Belt will be the best G5 conference within the next 10 years

I think the Sun Belt's gonna be the best G5 conference within the next 10 years because... there's just a buy-in from all the schools about wanting their football programs to be good. ... I think long-term Sun Belt's gonna be the best G5 leader.

This is a 10-year outlook. While the Sun Belt is currently strong, its status as the definitive 'best' G5 conference is still pending.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Texas is the most underrated team in the country and will beat Alabama in Week 2

I was asked for the most underrated team in the country and I chose Texas. ... I really do think this year's Longhorns team is going to be very good. ... I think Texas, if there is an elite team in that conference [Big 12] this year, it is Texas. ... Texas is gonna win that game [against Alabama].

Texas defeated Alabama 34-24 in Week 2 of the 2023 season and won the Big 12.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Caleb Williams will win back-to-back Heisman trophies

Caleb Williams is the real fucking deal. ... It's why I think he's the best player in college. It's why I think he'll be the first pick in the draft and it's why I think he's gonna be the first guy to win the Heisman at consecutive years since Archie Griffin.

Jayden Daniels won the 2023 Heisman Trophy; Caleb Williams did not finish in the top three.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Texas Tech -14 against Wyoming is a Game of the Year lock

Texas Tech minus 14 against Wyoming... I went full I mean go as many as you're comfortable going, but it's Game of the Year Territory for me. I have Texas Tech minus 14. I also have Texas Tech alternate lines at minus 20. So that's, I'm feeling pretty good about this one.

Texas Tech lost to Wyoming 35-33 in 2OT, failing to cover -14 and losing the game outright.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Mississippi State will be the worst team in the SEC this season

I'm gonna go Mississippi State because... their coach died. And it's not something you can really game plan for. ... Zach Arnett... is completely overhauling the offense. ... I think Mississippi State has a chance to have a pretty bad year. But I would say it's either them or Vandy.

Mississippi State finished 1-7 in the SEC, which was tied for last in the conference with Vanderbilt and Arkansas.
Void
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Michael Penix Jr. has a stronger arm than Josh Allen

Michael Penix was convinced to come back to Washington... he's not Josh Allen as far as total overall skillset as far as the size. But as far as arm strength is concerned, this kid might have a stronger arm than Josh Allen. ... you can't believe a human is able to throw a football that hard on a line like that.

This is a matter of biomechanics and scouting opinion, though Josh Allen's arm strength is legendary in the NFL.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Ohio State is being written off as a bad team prematurely after the Michigan loss

I think that there's been a large overreaction to Ohio State losing to Michigan. I think that Ohio State suddenly sucks in the mind of a lot of people because they lost to Michigan two years in a row. ... I think the Buckeyes are still very good. They could win this game [against Georgia].

Ohio State lost 42-41 to Georgia in a game that came down to a missed field goal, proving they were indeed very competitive.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

The Tulane vs. USC game is a lock to go over the point total

My favorite bet, honestly, the over in Tulane USC. ... Way too low. They're gonna get in seventies for this one.

Tulane won 46-45, for a total of 91 points, easily clearing the total in the low 60s.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Georgia is better than they were last year

I think Georgia is better than last year's team. I came into this season, thinking Alabama and Ohio State, one of them is going to win the national title... After what I saw on Saturday, I suddenly think that Georgia's probably right up there with those two.

Georgia finished the season 15-0, winning the National Championship in a 65-7 blowout. They were statistically and result-wise superior to the 2021 team.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud are the two best quarterbacks in the country

I think [C.J. Stroud] and Bryce Young are the two best quarterbacks in the country. I think that they will be Heisman finalists.

Both players were Heisman finalists in 2022 and were the top two picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

LSU and Florida State are both just mediocre 7-5 or 8-4 teams

Neither of those teams is very good. Like LSU is gonna be seven and five, Florida State's gonna be seven and five, maybe eight and four in the ACC.

LSU went 10-4 and won the SEC West. FSU went 10-3. Both teams far exceeded Fornelli's prediction.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Florida is a sleeper to be the second-best team in the SEC East over Tennessee and Kentucky

I feel like people are a little too easily hyping up Tennessee and Kentucky in the off season as like the second best team in the SEC east. I think Florida's very much in play to be that team.

This was very incorrect. Tennessee finished 11-2 (ranked 6th) and Kentucky finished 7-6. Florida finished 6-7 and 5th in the SEC East.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Drake Maye is an upgrade over Sam Howell

I think Drake Maye, their new quarterback, is really good... I think that he's just, he's probably an upgrade over Sam Howell, no offense. I know that he's with your Commanders now, but I think that they've got a better quarterback now.

Maye had an incredible 2022 season, throwing for over 4,300 yards and 38 TDs, largely considered a superior collegiate performance to Howell's final year.
Push
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Kansas is the worst Power Five team in college football

Oh, that's a good question. But it's Kansas. [The worst power five team].

Kansas went 2-10 in 2021. While bad, several other P5 teams (like Vanderbilt at 2-10 or Arizona at 1-11) were statistically similar or worse.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Florida is being slept on in the SEC and Dan Mullen can overperform with less talent

I think Florida in the SEC is being like pretty slept on. I know from a talent level, they're not at the Georgia, Alabama, or even the Texas A&M level, but you look at Dan Mullen and what he's always been able to do with teams even with less talent.

Florida struggled significantly in 2021, finishing 6-7 (2-6 SEC), and Dan Mullen was fired before the season ended.
Void
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Bijan Robinson is a better player than Najee Harris

I think Bijan Robinson is a perfect fit for what we saw Najee Harris do in that Alabama offense last year. I think Bijan is a better player than Najee Harris.

While subjective, Robinson was drafted higher (8th overall) than Harris (24th overall) and is widely considered an elite generational talent, supporting Fornelli's early assessment.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

My 2021 College Football Playoff field is Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Oregon

I am doing the least chalky chalk I can, as far as my official predictions. I've got my playoff being Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Oregon.

Only Alabama made the 2021 playoff from this list. Ohio State, Clemson, and Oregon all missed.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

A Group of Five team will never make the College Football Playoff in the four-team format

No, a Group of Five team... as long as the playoffs stays at four teams, a Group of Five teams never get again, period. I don't care who they play or what. We have to remember who put the playoff together. The Power Five.

The Cincinnati Bearcats (G5) made the College Football Playoff in December 2021, just three months after this take was made, while the field was still at four teams.
Void
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

James Franklin would be magnificent as the head coach at USC

I think James Franklin would be magnificent at USC because the one thing that USC, that you really need to take advantage of if your goal is to win national titles... you need a guy who's really good to try to bring that talent in like Pete Carroll was doing... I think James Franklin is one of the guys who's capable of doing it to be blunt.

Franklin stayed at Penn State, and USC hired Lincoln Riley instead.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Lock of the Week: Illinois -4.5 vs UTSA

My locker of the week this week is actually Illinois minus four and a half at home against UTSA. That is a straight up disrespectful line... to get that at under a touchdown, it's like, I don't think Illinois is some juggernaut now because it beat Nebraska, but they are definitely a touchdown better than UTSA.

UTSA won the game outright 37-30, making the Illinois -4.5 pick a loss.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Justin Fields will be the Bears starter by Week 3

And Justin Fields prediction go quick? Week three. [Week three start].

Justin Fields made his first start in Week 3 of the 2021 season against the Browns after Andy Dalton was injured.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

No team will get out of the Big Ten West with fewer than three losses

My prediction was nobody's getting out of the West with fewer than three losses this year and I honestly think that's the case because when I look at Wisconsin and Minnesota who are the two prohibitive favorites in the division, I don't think the gap between them and Illinois is all that wide.

Northwestern won the Big Ten West with a 6-1 record in the regular season. This take was very incorrect.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Tanner Morgan will be a first-round NFL draft pick

They have Tanner Morgan at quarterback who's probably one of them under more underrated quarterbacks in the country, I think he's a first round NFL draft pick next Spring and most people don't even know who he is.

Tanner Morgan was not drafted in 2021 (he stayed in school) and was eventually an undrafted free agent in 2023.
Win
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Northwestern vs. Maryland will go under the point total

I'm slipping into the warm and comfortable feel of a Northwestern Under against Maryland this weekend because the total is at like 54.5... Northwestern scored 12 points per game in the conference last year Maryland scored 16... 16 plus 12 does not equal 55.

Northwestern beat Maryland 43-3. The total was 46, which is under the 54.5 line.
Void
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

If Utah wins and Georgia loses, Utah will make the College Football Playoff

I think as long as Utah wins and Georgia loses, they're going to get the four spot... The committee has been ranking them based on being a complete team... Utah has been dominant all season long.

Utah lost the Pac-12 Championship to Oregon 37-15, which eliminated them regardless of other results.
Void
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Clemson is so much better than the ACC that they would make the playoff even with a loss

The ACC is the worst conference ever and yeah, Clemson makes the playoff if they lose, for sure. Clemson's biggest opponent will be boredom because the rest of the ACC sucks. There is nobody in the ACC that can compete with Clemson.

Clemson won the ACC and made the playoff, so the 'loss' scenario never occurred, but the dominance was real.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Michigan will win the Big Ten and make the College Football Playoff

I have them [Michigan] winning the Big Ten though. I have them getting the playoff. So I do think it happens this year.

Michigan finished 9-4 and did not win the Big Ten or make the Playoff.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Oklahoma will beat Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinals

I think Oklahoma beats Alabama in a semi this year just because... I look at their problem last year that defense dipped off now they're losing one of their best defenders. Jalen Hurts revenge game, that would be great.

Alabama did not make the College Football Playoff in 2019.
Loss
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Notre Dame is the most likely top-four team to miss the CFB Playoff

[Predict one of the four teams not making it] Notre Dame. Even over Michigan? Yeah. Because Michigan's got to play Ohio State. I think if you look at Notre Dame, I don't think any of us are going to be surprised if they lose to Syracuse next weekend.

Notre Dame finished the regular season undefeated and did make the College Football Playoff.
Void
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Michigan is currently a better team than Notre Dame

I honestly think Michigan, even though it lost to Notre Dame to start the year, is better than Notre Dame. At least it's playing better... I think Michigan just overall, special teams, defense, and offense has been a better team than Notre Dame.

Subjective, but Notre Dame won the head-to-head and made the playoff while Michigan lost to Ohio State and didn't.

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