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Aaron SchatzAaron Schatz

Josh Allen is elite despite the interceptions because he has the lowest sack rate in the league and often throws 'punted' interceptions.

The interceptions that Allen throws are for the most part not as bad because they tend to be downfield or on fourth down. And we don't talk about the fact that he had the lowest sack rate of any quarterback this year. Right. Those are negative plays too. And he doesn't take a lot of sacks. So like he was in quarterback value, I think we had him third this year... Allen does so much more of it on his own.

Schatz's DVOA metrics confirm Allen's efficiency, and Allen famously took zero sacks in his two 2024 playoff games.

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Void
Jan 12, 2024
#5587
Big CatBig Cat

Pete Carroll has an argument for being a top 10 football coach of all time

Pete Carroll has an argument for being a top 10 football coach of all time. He's 14th all time in NFL wins. He's got two national titles in college football. If you put it all together, Pete Carroll has an argument for being a top 10 football coach of all time.

Subjective all-time ranking.
Loss
Jan 12, 2024
#5588
HankHank

I would rather the Patriots hire Mike Vrabel than Jerod Mayo to replace Bill Belichick

I would rather Vrabel... He's a recurring guest, friend of the program. He's proven it. Super Bowl champion. Obviously Mayo is too, but I would rather Vrabel just [because of his] proximity to the show.

The Patriots hired Jerod Mayo on January 12, 2024, the day this episode aired, making Hank's preference obsolete.
Void
Jan 12, 2024
#29106
MaxMax

Bill Belichick might have wanted to leave the Patriots to find a team with a roster ready to win now.

I think that there's a chance he did wanna leave. I think that he might be at a point where he doesn't want to do a rebuilding coaching team and he wants to go to a, a place that has guys. I think that like, if the Cowboys are on the table... he may be willing to go to a give that up for a team. A team that could win now.

The true motives of Belichick and Kraft remain private, making this an unconfirmable opinion.

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Win
Aaron SchatzAaron Schatz

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are slightly favored over the Philadelphia Eagles in Wild Card Weekend

The biggest one for me is Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. I actually, in my projections, I have Tampa Bay very, very slightly favored... If you look at the weighted numbers that give more weight to recent games, Tampa Bay is 15th, Philadelphia is 21st.

The Buccaneers beat the Eagles 32-9.
Win
Aaron SchatzAaron Schatz

The Rams' historically bad special teams will likely cost them a game at some point in the playoffs.

The worst [special teams unit] by far by far was the Rams. Yeah. The Rams were the sixth worst special teams unit in DVOA history... Their special teams like it almost cost them against the Giants. It absolutely cost them the game against the Ravens. Punt return and touchdown in overtime. Their special teams are terrible... I would say it's likely that that will happen at some point along the way.

The Rams lost to the Lions by 1 point in the Wild Card round; while not a single special teams play decided it, they did miss a field goal in a one-point game.
Loss
Aaron SchatzAaron Schatz

Buffalo and Dallas are the two best teams in the NFL outside of San Francisco and Baltimore

The number two teams in each conference are pretty clearly Buffalo and Dallas. Not just the number two seeds, but the number two teams by both DVOA and weighted towards the end of the season. If somebody's gonna win this thing other than San Francisco or Baltimore, it's probably going to be Buffalo or Dallas.

Dallas lost in the Wild Card round; Buffalo lost in the Divisional round. Neither made the Super Bowl.

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