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PMTPMT DB

Takes

Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I'm not counting the Buccaneers' win over the Rams as a real win

I'm not counting this as a win even for the Bucks. I think that this... the Rams, they're just fucking idiots. The Rams are just fucking morons. Sean McVay has become a fucking idiot... [Brady] managed to squeak out a shitty win at the end of a shitty game against a shitty team.

Both teams finished with losing records, confirming PFT's assessment that both were 'shitty'.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Joe Burrow is a lock to cover after losing to the Browns

Joe Burrow is four and oh against the spread after losing to the Browns. Cause he always loses the Browns. So he bounces back. So go go with Joe Burrow there. Trust in Joe.

The Bengals beat the Panthers 42-21 in Week 9, covering the 7.5 point spread.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Dan Snyder is officially going to sell the Washington Commanders

I've talked to enough people behind the scenes to know that Dan Snyder is in fact going to sell the Washington Commanders. Yesterday was no joke, the second best sports day of my entire life.

The sale of the Commanders to the Josh Harris group was eventually finalized in July 2023.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Aaron Rodgers is legitimately bad right now and it is not a fluke

I think that this is like, it's not a fluke that [Aaron Rogers] sucks right now. If he wants to, this is a perfect excuse for him. Just be like, 'Yeah, my thumb is extreme. The doctor said that he is never seen a worse thumb than mine.'

Rodgers finished the 2022 season with his lowest passer rating as a starter and the Packers missed the playoffs.
Void
Big CatBig Cat

Never bet on Tom Brady in a night game

The Tom Brady day verse night thing is very real and he is old. And so since he's gone to the Bucs, he's 22 and 12 against the spread at daytime and he's two and 11 against the spread at nighttime. So we gotta just make sure we never bet on Tom Brady at night again.

While a trend, it's a general betting rule he's establishing.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Teams that play the Panthers lose their following game

Do you know that teams that play the Panthers the next week, they're 0-7. Every team that's played the Panthers the following week, they lose their next game... You either you get beaten up by them and you're still sore going to the next game or they're just so bad that you think that this is what NFL football is like.

The Falcons played the Panthers in Week 8 and played the Chargers in Week 9. The Falcons lost to the Chargers, making the streak 0-8.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Cliff Kingsbury is officially a dead man walking at Arizona

It's so clear that Cliff Kingsbury's getting fired. I mean, the minute that Kyler Murray yelled at him on the sideline, like, I don't know. That's, I know they'll say like, 'Oh that's just football. We're just angry.' Doesn't feel that way.

Cliff Kingsbury was fired by the Cardinals at the end of the 2022 season (January 2023).
Loss
Billy FootballBilly Football

Zach Wilson is 'overqualified' for the NFL and that's why he struggles

The guy is so capable of throwing absolute bombs and dimes that when he can't and has to make the start decision and not make a gigantic play... he's so talented that he doesn't like other... people with less talented arms work on being game managers. They can't do what he does. He's almost, they need to create a new football league, a better football league that he could play in because he's too good for the NFL.

Zach Wilson was eventually benched and traded after consistent poor play, proving he was not 'too good' for the league.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Jeff Wilson Jr. is the sneaky best move of the NFL trade deadline

I actually think Jeff Wilson is like the sneaky best move of the day because you have a running back who knows the Shanahan system who can now run Mike McDaniel's system. Like that was, that's one of those ones where it just, it's under the radar because there are bigger names.

Wilson had a productive rest of the season for Miami, including a big role in the offense, validating the 'sneaky' fit.
Loss
Big CatBig Cat

Justin Fields is officially the guy for the Chicago Bears

The argument that everyone made in the off season that the Bears were ruining Justin Fields by not getting him anyone. You can't then complain that they went and got [Chase Claypool]. I got my guy, I'm feeling confident about having my guy. I have, I have a guy. He is the guy... he's officially the guy. Build around Justin Fields. Everything else doesn't matter.

Fields had a historic rushing season in 2022 but was eventually traded to the Steelers in 2024 after the Bears chose to draft Caleb Williams #1 overall, meaning he was ultimately not 'the guy' long-term for them.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings will not win the Super Bowl

I'm not going back. I've been on this take. They're not winning the Super Bowl. We will be right. I've been on this take for six years. My take on Kirk Cousins has not wavered and it never will.

The Vikings lost in the Wild Card round to the Giants, proving PFT right about them not winning the Super Bowl.
Win
Michael IrvinMichael Irvin

Tony Pollard is the best running back of the weekend over Derrick Henry

Tony Pollard's number one, because he took 15 rushes to get 131 yards. It's not just the number of yards. It's also how many times did I touch the ball to get it? Derrick Henry, I think had 32 carries for 219 yards... Parlor, we can't run him 30 times. That's not him. But yes, I believe that he's a true playmaker.

Pollard averaged 8.7 YPC while Henry averaged 6.8 YPC that weekend. While Henry's volume was higher, Irvin's point on efficiency is factually supported for that specific window.
Loss
Michael IrvinMichael Irvin

Odell Beckham Jr. would love to play for the Dallas Cowboys

I guarantee you I could tell you Odell would love to see Odell on the cowboy. Trust me. Trust me. I know Dale. Odell and I have had conversations about that a long time ago. Odell has to be in a place where the lights are bright. For him to be his best. You can't stick him in Cleveland. Put him in LA, put him in New York. You put him in Dallas where that light is bright.

OBJ flirted heavily with the Cowboys in 2022 but ultimately did not sign that season. He signed with the Ravens in 2023 and the Dolphins in 2024, never actually joining Dallas despite Irvin's 'guarantee'.
Push
Michael IrvinMichael Irvin

The Philadelphia Eagles are headed toward a dynasty

I was the first one to say that Philly is headed towards Dynasty. That's what I said this summer in Philly... if they had the right hand on the stairwell and the right hand on the center, if these hands work out, they can be doing something for quite a while.

The Eagles won Super Bowl LIX, beating the Chiefs 40-22 — their second Super Bowl appearance in three years. Not a dynasty yet, but trending in that direction.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Chase Daniel has the greatest NFL career of all time

Would you argue, and I would make this argument, that you actually have the greatest NFL career of all time with 178 pass completions and 42 million made? ... Tom Brady's made 40,000 per completion. You've made 235,000 per completion.

Hot TakeFootballHotSarcastic
The math is roughly correct based on Daniel's career earnings and stats at the time of the episode, supporting the 'greatest career' (from a business/health perspective) take.
Void
Big CatBig Cat

No NFL quarterback has a closer connection to their city right now than Josh Allen has with Buffalo

I don't think there is a closer connection quarterback to city right now than Josh what Josh Allen has going on in Buffalo. ... I don't think there's anyone right now [above him].

Subjective measure of fan-player relationships, but Allen's status in Buffalo remains near-mythological.
Loss
Big CatBig Cat

Trevor Lawrence is officially back in the bust category

Trevor Lawrence is now back officially into the bust category. ... This is as rock bottom as you can be if you're a Jaguars fan because you have the guy that was supposed to be the next Peyton Manning, the surest like sure thing. Oh, and then you might miss.

Lawrence led the Jaguars to a playoff win later this same season (2022) and earned a Pro Bowl nod, significantly rehabilitating his image.
Void
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

95% of NFL games are lost, not won

There was a great quote by Ian Eagle during the game. ... Ian Eagle said 95% of games in the NFL are lost and not won. ... I still don't know what the fuck he was talking about, but it makes sense.

This is a philosophical coaching platitude that can't be statistically proven but is a staple of NFL media.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

The Vikings are frauds

I guess I have to say now I had this circled on Friday show as this is the game the Vikings will be proven to be frauds. I was wrong. The Vikings won this game... [but] I agree with [PFT], I still think they're frauds.

The 13-win Vikings famously lost at home in the Wild Card round to the Giants, proving the 'fraud' label was largely accurate in a playoff context.
Win
Jake MarshJake Marsh

Tua Tagovailoa is having a better season than Justin Herbert

Tua Tagovailoa's having a better year than Justin Herbert right now. He is the guy... I think if Tua didn't get hurt, they would be at the top of the AFC right now.

Tua led the NFL in passer rating (105.5) in 2022, while Herbert's stats dipped due to injury and coaching, though Herbert is often still ranked higher long-term.
Void
Big CatBig Cat

If Matt Nagy had utilized Justin Fields' running ability, he would still have a coaching job

I'm gonna say something really crazy. If Matt Nagy was smart enough and he had run Justin Fields like they're doing the last few games, he'd probably still have a job.

Nagy was fired after a 6-11 season; while Fields excelled as a runner in 2022, it's speculative if that alone could have saved a coach who struggled for years with offense.
Loss
Big CatBig Cat

Mike McCarthy must reach the NFC Championship game to keep his job

I think he needs to get the NFC Championship game. ... Because you're expected to win. ... If he loses in a comically fat fashion, for Mike McCarthy, if he looks where his brain just stops... I could see Jerry Jones firing him.

McCarthy lost in the Divisional Round in 2022 and 2023 and remained the head coach into the 2024 season.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Bill Belichick coaching tree has a combined 41% winning percentage as head coaches

If you look at Belichick's former coaches that have gone on to coach in the NFL, their winning percentage is 41%. Not good. They're a combined 225, 319 and one. ... The best head coach that has been a former Bill Belichick assistant coach is Bill O'Brien.

These numbers were factually accurate at the time of the podcast, reflecting the general failure of Belichick's proteges in lead roles.
Loss
Billy FootballBilly Football

I would trade Zach Wilson for Sam Ehlinger right now

I'm in both holes. Very deep. ... Then Sam Ehlinger would probably go to the Jets. Give, let's give Zach. ... As a guy who doesn't throw interceptions, that's the kind of guy you want as your quarterback.

Sam Ehlinger was benched shortly after and has never been a viable NFL starter; while Wilson was also a bust, swapping him for Ehlinger was not the solution.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Pete Carroll is a legitimate Coach of the Year candidate

Pete Carroll's definitely in the conversation for Coach of the Year. This team was supposed to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. They, I think we quoted it last week, their over under for wins was five and a half. They're five and three right now.

Pete Carroll finished 9th in Coach of the Year voting after taking a team projected for 5 wins to the playoffs with a 9-8 record.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Tom Brady should retire right now

Today is Friday, October 28th and Tom Brady should retire. The Buccaneers are a pathetic, pathetic football team. Oh my God. Tom Brady should retire.

Brady did eventually retire following the conclusion of this 2022 season after a first-round playoff loss.
Void
Big CatBig Cat

Todd Bowles is a bad head coach

Todd Bowles sucks as a coach. I'm sorry. He sucks. They get so many penalties. It's so many dumb things.

Bowles continued to face criticism throughout the 2022 and 2023 seasons, though he did lead the Bucs to a playoff win in 2023.
Loss
Big CatBig Cat

The Ravens are back in the Super Bowl contender tier

The Ravens were phenomenal and the Ravens, like, they kind of got their their juice back in terms of of running the football. I have the Ravens back in my good tier. Maybe even, maybe even Super Bowl contender tier.

The Ravens finished 10-7 and lost in the Wild Card round to the Bengals, though Lamar Jackson missed the end of the season with an injury.
Void
Mike FlorioMike Florio

Defensive linemen are systematically overpowering offensive lines across the NFL

[Chris Simms] thinks that we've gotten to the point in the NFL where the defensive linemen are so good, they just overpower the offensive lines. And there are so many good defensive linemen and there's so much value placed on pass rusher that they are just systematically overpowering.

This has been a widely discussed trend in the early 2020s NFL, with sack rates and offensive line play being major storylines.
Void
Mike FlorioMike Florio

Tom Brady's marriage issues began because Gisele didn't know he was flirting with the Dolphins

There's a theory in league circles... that the issues with Tom Brady and his wife blew up when the league announced the punishment of the dolphins because of the flirtation with Brady. Cuz she had, as the theory goes, no idea he was talking to the dolphins about playing.

The exact cause of the divorce is personal and unverified by official sources, making this speculation subjective/unresolvable.
Void
Mike FlorioMike Florio

Bill Belichick cannot hold his staff accountable because of nepotism with his sons

[Belichick] has got two kids working for him. And if one of those kids needs to be fired, he can't do it. And that makes it impossible for him to hold other people accountable. I think that's the root of where things kind of got wobbly... if you can't hold your kids accountable, you can't hold anybody accountable.

This is a recurring criticism of the late-stage Belichick era in New England, though it remains a subjective analysis of team dynamics.
Push
Mike FlorioMike Florio

The Vikings will lose in the divisional round this year

This is a team that's gonna go 11 and six, maybe 12 and five... And they're gonna win in the wild card round if they're lucky. And then they get the shit kicked out of them by the Eagles or the Cowboys or one of the elite teams in the nfc because cousins is limited.

Florio was incredibly close. The Vikings went 13-4 and lost in the Wild Card round (not the divisional) to the Giants.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Zach Wilson will be befuddled by the Patriots defense this weekend

I wanna talk about the Patriot's defense because the Patriot's defense I think is going to befuddle. Zach Wilson. Zach Wilson's gonna be befuddled this weekend. And the Jacks, he's gonna be so confused. Belichick knows how to fuck with befuddled quarterbacks.

The Patriots beat the Jets 22-17 that weekend; Zach Wilson threw 3 interceptions and had a 64.6 passer rating, looking very confused.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Kyle Shanahan owns Sean McVay

I assume that was who you're gonna be if you were basic. Yeah, no, I agree with you. But also at some point, I feel like every time this happens... we've known for a while that Shanahan owns McVay. He's eight and four against McVay overall. Straight up.

The 49ers beat the Rams 31-14 in the game immediately following this take, further proving Shanahan's dominance.
Loss
Billy FootballBilly Football

Sam Ehlinger is mobile enough to light up the Commanders offense

I'm going Colts minus three over the commanders... Sam Ehlinger, I think he's a mobile quarterback enough to light up an offense. We see these mobile quarterbacks getting first downs, extending drives. I think the Colts gonna have the fire in their belly.

The Colts lost 17-16 to the Commanders. Ehlinger did not 'light up' the offense, throwing for 201 yards, 0 TDs, and rushing for 15 yards.
Void
Big CatBig Cat

Pete Carroll is not a good in-game coach

I feel like D'Amico is a very good endgame coach. And Pete Carroll, I don't think is a very good in game coach. I think Pete Carroll is, he has got a lot of strengths, but in terms of adjustments and being strategic with things like challenges, time out, stuff like that. He's not even in my top 10.

This is a subjective evaluation of a legendary coach's specific tactical shortcomings.
Loss
HankHank

Jaguars vs. Broncos in London will be a shootout

Taking the over 39 and a half Jaguars, Broncos... I think it's gonna be a shootout. Pre-season, everyone loved the Broncos. Jaguars saying they're one of the most fun teams. Explosive teams.

The Broncos won 21-17. The total was 38, so the over 39.5 failed. It was far from a 'shootout'.
Void
Big CatBig Cat

The Bears' win over the Patriots was my favorite Bears game since 2018

It was probably my favorite Bears game that they've played since probably 2018 against the Rams on Sunday Night Football when we almost made our good friend Jared [Goff] cry because it was so cold and that defense was awesome.

Push
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Justin Fields took a big step towards being 'a guy' against the Patriots

Congratulations. I think Justin Fields took a big step towards, towards being a guy this week.

Justin Fields had a brief stretch of elite play following this game before injuries and roster limitations slowed his progress in Chicago.
Void
HankHank

Patriots fans booing Mac Jones was a bad sports town move

The fact that Patriots fans were booing Mac Jones who played well last year, took us to the playoffs and was a first round draft pick and then were chanting for Bailey Zappy. That's a bad sports town move. Ooh, that I did not like that at all.

Void
Billy FootballBilly Football

Matt Patricia is to blame for Mac Jones' struggles because the offense was designed for Bailey Zappy

I think the situation is much worse. I think it's Matt Patricia's fault... Mac Jones may have started in taking all the starting reps and practice, but the type of offense that the starting offense was running in that first drive was really a Bailey Zappy offense... that scheme was very different to anything they were running last year. And with that, that's because they were playing to Bailey Zappy's skill.

Win
Billy FootballBilly Football

Bailey Zappy's release point is too low for the NFL

But the thing is, the downside with Zappy is that his release point is too low for the NFL. If you look at the Cleveland [game] and if you look at what he did last night, his release point is way too low causing the ball to get batted down and those interceptions.

This remained a common criticism of Zappy throughout his starts in 2022 and 2023.
Void
Taylor HeinickeTaylor Heinicke

The 'Washington Football Team' was the best name the franchise has had recently

I feel like the coolest name was the football team. I mean, I thought that was, I like that one the best. Yeah, I mean, Commanders was cool, you know, hopefully we can keep this thing rolling.

Loss
Big CatBig Cat

Justin Fields bought himself a fifth-year option with his performance against the Patriots

This is one of those moments where you wish you were us because I'm gonna be living off of like that performance from Justin Fields. He just bought in my mind his fifth year option. Like that's how overreacting I am.

The Bears declined Justin Fields' fifth-year option in May 2024 after trading him to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Joe Gibbs winning three Super Bowls with different QBs and RBs is incredibly impressive

It's interesting cuz like Joe Gibbs won three Super Bowls with three different starting quarterbacks He did. And three different starting running backs. That's just kind of interesting.

Joe Gibbs won Super Bowls with Joe Theismann, Doug Williams, and Mark Rypien at QB, and John Riggins, Timmy Smith, and Gerald Riggs/Ernest Byner as primary RB contributors.
Void
Big CatBig Cat

Aaron Rodgers is blaming his teammates for the Packers' struggles

Guys who are making too many mistakes shouldn't be playing. Gotta start cutting some reps. So it's not his fault, it's his teammate's fault.

Loss
Billy FootballBilly Football

Sam Ehlinger will be a successful game manager for the Colts

The most hilarious would be if they just came in and they went old school and just ran Jonathan Taylor 35 times a game and asked him to be a game manager. They make the playoffs and then you can still claim he's a better quarterback than Trevor Lawrence. That's what I'm hoping for.

Sam Ehlinger went 0-3 as a starter in 2022 with a 60.1 QB rating. The Colts finished 4-12-1 and missed the playoffs.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Daniel Jones has officially become 'the guy' for the Giants

He's definitely become the guy... He's got that dog in him officially now.

While Jones led them to the playoffs in 2022 and got a massive extension, his play regressed significantly in 2023 and 2024, leading to him being benched.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The New York Giants will make the playoffs

The New York Giants are gonna make the playoffs. They just are, they're going. It's hard. I want you to all prepare yourself for that moment because I don't want to sneak up on anybody. The New York Giants are gonna be playoff team.

The Giants finished the 2022 season 9-7-1 and made the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

The Buccaneers are officially a bad football team

The Bucs are a bad football team. They lose 21 to three to the Carolina Panthers, who everyone thought was the worst football team in the nfl... they not only beat 'em, they beat the shit out of 'em. The bucks are so broken.

The Bucs finished 8-9, and while they technically won the division, they had a losing record and were easily eliminated in the Wild Card round.