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NFL With Our Friend Sam Schwartzstein, NFL Week 10 Picks & Preview + Fyre Fest Of The Week

Friday, November 10, 202320 takes

The Bears are back, sort of and that was kind of football that we watched (-). Week 10 picks and preview for every game from Sunday with some wild twists and turns talking about Belichick's video, Max found a bird video, we have some theories on Kyler Murray and more (-). Fantasy Fuccbois (-). We then welcome on our good friend Sam Schwartzstein from Thursday Night Football Prime Vision to talk NFL, analytics, Harbaugh stories from his playing days at Stanford and tons more (-). We then finish with Fyre Fest of the week (-).

Sam Schwartzstein on Jim Harbaugh, Analytics, and NFL Week 10 Preview

The Bears are back, and while that was technically football we watched on Thursday night, it wasn't always pretty. Big Cat and PFT break down a game where Tyson Bagent did enough to win, even if the starter conversation should probably be put into a permanent hibernation.

Win
Nov 10, 2023
#22862
Big CatBig Cat

Tyson Bagent is an awesome story but he is not an NFL starter

Tyson Bagent, nice guy, I'm rooting for him. Awesome story. This idea that he's a starter. Let's just stop that. Okay, let's stop that right now. Which I think most people actually stopped it a couple weeks ago. But I'm gonna stop myself with that right now.

Bagent returned to his backup role for the remainder of his tenure with the Bears and has not been viewed as a starter since.

Big Cat spent most of the recap eyeing the draft board, as the Bears currently hold the Panthers' first-round pick. After watching Bryce Young struggle and Frank Reich look miserable on the sidelines, the guys aren't optimistic about the future in Carolina.

Loss
Nov 10, 2023
#9794
Big CatBig Cat

David Tepper might fire Frank Reich this week

I think that there's a chance that David Tepper fires Frank Reich this week. David Tepper did not look happy in the booth... He's a micromanager. He's fired men for far less than that.

Reich was not fired following the Week 10 game; he was fired on November 27, 2023, after losing to the Titans.

Week 10 Picks and Preview

Moving into the Week 10 preview, Big Cat and PFT admit they are running on about four hours of sleep total due to the new Chicago office opening. This leads to a truly loopy breakdown of the slate, featuring a Patriot-Colts preview that spent more time on Bill Belichick's shirtless "walk of shame" video than actual X's and O's.

The guys also locked horns on the Jaguars-Niners matchup. PFT is ready to call out Jacksonville for having a soft schedule, while Big Cat thinks Kyle Shanahan is about to get the Niners back on track by actually taking things seriously again.

Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Jacksonville Jaguars are on fraud watch

To be consistent, we have to say that if they lose this game [against the Niners], we have to call the Jaguars frauds... they haven't done anything to really earn that. It's just that they haven't played anybody. No, they're on fraud watch.

The Jaguars lost the game in a blowout (34-3), validating the 'fraud' concern for that week.
Win
Nov 10, 2023·Picks
#22863
Big CatBig Cat

The 49ers will look good and beat the Jaguars in Week 10

I think the Niners are gonna win this game. I think they're gonna be, I think they're gonna look good... Kyler Shanahan's gonna get more involved in the defense... they realize, hey, we're a really good team, but we gotta start taking some shit seriously.

The 49ers dominated the Jaguars, winning 34-3.

Further down the board, the guys discussed the resurgence of Will Levis and the continued dominance of the Ravens. PFT isn't just a believer in the Ravens; he's ready to put his entire pristine reputation on the line regarding their status in the league.

Loss
Nov 10, 2023·Picks
#9796
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Baltimore Ravens are the best team in football right now

I like the Ravens. I think that the Ravens are the best team in football right now. I would stake my reputation on that, which is pristine.

The Ravens lost their next game to the Cleveland Browns and did not win the Super Bowl.
Loss
Nov 10, 2023·Picks
#9797
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Will Levis will be an elite NFL quarterback

I've seen enough. Will Levis will be an elite quarterback.

Will Levis has struggled with injuries and high turnover rates, failing to secure elite status as he was benched in 2024.

As the preview wrapped up, the conversation spiraled into fitness goals and the upcoming "1000 Pound Club" attempt in the new office gym. While Max is confident he can deadlift a house, PFT has some very specific physical goals for the spring.

Loss
Nov 10, 2023·Picks
#22866
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I will have abs and be benching 325 pounds by Memorial Day

Memorial Day this year. I say Memorial Day I'm gonna be in such good shape. I'm gonna have abs. I'm gonna be bench pressing 325. It's gonna be sick.

PFT Commenter did not achieve a 325-pound bench press or visible abs by Memorial Day 2024.

Sam Schwartzstein on Harbaugh and Analytics

Sam Schwartzstein joined the show to provide some much-needed football intelligence. A former Stanford center under Jim Harbaugh, Sam shared incredible stories about Harbaugh’s intensity, including the time the coach made a freshman Andrew Luck stand up in front of the team to be admired as "blue twisted steel." When asked about the current Michigan drama, Sam offered a unique perspective on how Harbaugh operates his "sovereign state."

Void
Nov 10, 2023
#9799
Sam SchwartzsteinSam Schwartzstein

Jim Harbaugh didn't know about the sign-stealing execution

I don't think he [Jim Harbaugh] knew. He'll do anything to win, but it doesn't necessarily mean that he's gonna be the one to execute everything. He will say, 'Hey guys, we have to do anything. We need to win.' But I don't think he's gonna get down and dirty and do that.

NCAA investigations into Harbaugh's knowledge are ongoing/subjective, but he was suspended by the Big Ten during this time.

Sam also went deep on the data side of the game, explaining how Amazon’s Prime Vision is changing how fans see the field. He broke down why quarterbacks are often more to blame for sacks than the guys up front, and why some of the most famous innovations are actually simpler than they look.

Win
Nov 10, 2023
#22867
Sam SchwartzsteinSam Schwartzstein

Quarterbacks are responsible for a lot more sacks than people think

Quarterbacks attribute or account a lot more for sacks than people think... a quarterback's behavior will create sacks. Whether or not play call is involved in that too. So there is a solvable problem that could be something we're trying to do [with data].

Advanced metrics from PFF and Next Gen Stats increasingly attribute sack responsibility to individual quarterbacks.
Win
Nov 10, 2023
#22869
Sam SchwartzsteinSam Schwartzstein

There is no way for a defense to consistently stop the Tush Push

I definitely don't think there's a way to stop it [the Tush Push] and converting. QB sneaks in general convert at 72% of the time they're at like 85 90% with the tush push. It's super hard to stop it.

The Eagles maintained a nearly 90% success rate on the play throughout the 2023 season.

Before letting him go, Sam made some bold claims about the future of the league and the greatest to ever do it. While he's a huge fan of current innovators like Ben Johnson, he still holds a candle for his old college quarterback as the ultimate peak of the position.

Void
Nov 10, 2023
#9800
Sam SchwartzsteinSam Schwartzstein

Andrew Luck is the greatest football player of all time

I still think he's the greatest player of all time... He could do absolutely everything and would do anything for his teammates. Best leader. He was by far the best player on the field as a freshman.

Extremely subjective and controversial given the careers of Brady, Rice, etc.
Win
Nov 10, 2023
#22870
Sam SchwartzsteinSam Schwartzstein

Ben Johnson is the best head coaching candidate in the NFL

I love Ben Johnson. You know, I don't know how he is a leader, but from a play caller standpoint... he uses analytics and data... If I were an owner, he's a guy I would go after as a head coach.

Johnson became the most sought-after head coaching candidate during the 2024 hiring cycle.

We finished up with a Fyre Fest of the week where Hank apologized for failing to produce his much-anticipated Lighthouse presentation. It's a busy week in Chicago, but the grind never stops.

Hopefully, Sam Howell is indeed the future, because PFT’s sanity depends on it.

nfljim-harbaughchicago-bearsanalyticsnfl-week-10

More Takes

Win
Nov 10, 2023·Picks
#22864
Big CatBig Cat

The Chargers are not that good and rely too much on their reputation

I don't think the Chargers are that good... their offense is going off a little bit of reputation with their offense. And now that both, you lost Mike Williams... I don't think they have that many guys right now. So I like the Lions in this game.

The Chargers struggled significantly for the remainder of the season, resulting in a 5-12 record and the firing of Brandon Staley.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

The Dallas Cowboys will demolish the New York Giants

I actually think like the Cowboys minus 17 is too low because I just don't know the Cowboys defense. This is what the Cowboys do. They kick the shit outta teams like this. They're going to demolish the Giants.

The Cowboys beat the Giants 49-17.
Win
Nov 10, 2023·Picks
#22865
Big CatBig Cat

Geno Smith will have a big bounce-back week against the Commanders

I expect a big bounce back week from Geno [Smith] this week. I'm gonna give Gino a slight pass in the fact that he did play the Browns and the Ravens. And those are the two best defenses in the NFL... So I expect a big bounce back week from Gino this week.

Geno Smith threw for 369 yards and 2 touchdowns in a win against Washington.
Loss
Nov 10, 2023·Picks
#9798
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Sam Howell is the future for the Washington Commanders

Sam Howell, regardless of what happens this weekend, I'm ready to say it. He's the guy.

Howell was benched late in the season and traded to the Seahawks in March 2024 as the Commanders opted to draft Jayden Daniels.
Win
Nov 10, 2023
#22871
Sam SchwartzsteinSam Schwartzstein

Tua Tagovailoa's ability to throw deep while having a short release is extremely valuable

Tua has the one of the shortest time to throws and one of the furthest air yards per target... Meaning he's taking not that long to throw, but he is also pushing the ball down the field... They're also manipulating data... It's extremely valuable.

Tua consistently led the league in quick release time while maintaining high yards per attempt in 2023.
Loss
Nov 10, 2023
#9802
Sam SchwartzsteinSam Schwartzstein

Downfield laterals are the next major offensive innovation in the NFL

I'm a firm believer in a downfield lateral because it's just, you need to practice it... It is a hundred percent on board... The downfield lateral is probably the next way that we're gonna see more of these explosive plays.

Downfield laterals did not become a major offensive innovation in the NFL through the 2025 season. No significant adoption of this concept has occurred.
Win
Nov 10, 2023
#22868
Sam SchwartzsteinSam Schwartzstein

Eli Manning is the secret GOAT of drawing pass interference penalties

I actually think it's Eli Manning. I did a research study on this... the two Super Bowl seasons they had... were two standard deviations away of first downs by penalty on third down... he was just saying, Mario Manningham, Plaxico Burress, let's just make something happen. Underthrown him just a little bit.

This is backed by Sam's internal analytics study of the 2007 and 2011 Giants seasons.
Loss
Nov 10, 2023
#9801
Sam SchwartzsteinSam Schwartzstein

The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl

Baltimore... Complete team. Todd Monkin offense... Lamar's playing at a different speed... the fact that their defense is playing [well].

The Ravens were defeated by the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

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