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Stanford SteveStanford Steve

Betting first-half unders is the best strategy for the early rounds of the NCAA tournament

I have a theory about the first tournament games... I look at first half unders just because of their in arenas. The crowds aren't great. The shooting backdrops are different... it's been really good, but it's, I wouldn't say like it's been above 65%.

The efficacy of this specific betting strategy fluctuates year to year and cannot be definitively proven true or false as a universal rule.

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Win
Mar 20, 2026
#29969
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

High Point is a very, very good basketball team

I actually think that High Point is a very, very good team. It was no fluke. They're a very good team.

In the context of the transcript, High Point has just upset a major power (Wisconsin), validating their quality.
Void
Mar 20, 2026
#29980
Big CatBig Cat

I am done believing in Wisconsin basketball because they always rip my guts out in the tournament

I think the only lesson I've learned is like, I need to just stop believing. Because this has also become a thing where the Badgers haven't been to the Sweet 16 in like nine years... every year that we keep going is another year that I'm just reminded how close I was in 2015. I will never get back there. It just won't happen like every other team.

This is a subjective emotional state and a prediction of future failure for his own team.
Loss
Mar 20, 2026
#29981
Big CatBig Cat

High Point is not a real school; it is a four-year post-high school vacation

High Point isn't a real school. It's vacation. It's vacation use four years of post high school vacation... Students in Madison right now still have another like, solid month and a half of Winter. High Point is going and eating ice cream and in their shorts and flip flops and having steaks.

It is a real accredited university, though it is known for its luxury amenities.

More from Stanford Steve

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Void
Stanford SteveStanford Steve

Texas has the best wins but may not be the best team

I think you start with Texas because they have the two best wins, but are they the best team? I still, I just want to see more.

This is a current team evaluation that is inherently subjective and will change as the season develops.
Void
Stanford SteveStanford Steve

Oregon's quarterback depth makes it a contender

They got the money to pay a guy to sit on the bench that's the five-star former quarterback. He was awesome. He did it with Dante Moore behind Dillon Gabriel. And that's where I think you, I mean they didn't lose a beat. It's true. No other teams can have that depth.

The value of Oregon's quarterback depth is an evaluative claim that cannot be definitively resolved independent of the season's results.
Open
Stanford SteveStanford Steve

Mississippi State can win two of its next four games

You have a chance. I mean, I just said Bama is getting better every week. Kamario has gotten better every week. ... Yes, I believe he's capable. I mean, look at who would you rather have at the quarterback position in those matchups? Kamario. So he gives them a shot, man.

Mississippi State's results across those four games had not occurred by the episode date.