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Stanford SteveStanford Steve

Betting first-half unders is the best strategy for the early rounds of the NCAA tournament

I have a theory about the first tournament games... I look at first half unders just because of their in arenas. The crowds aren't great. The shooting backdrops are different... it's been really good, but it's, I wouldn't say like it's been above 65%.

The efficacy of this specific betting strategy fluctuates year to year and cannot be definitively proven true or false as a universal rule.

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Win
Mar 20, 2026
#29969
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

High Point is a very, very good basketball team

I actually think that High Point is a very, very good team. It was no fluke. They're a very good team.

In the context of the transcript, High Point has just upset a major power (Wisconsin), validating their quality.
Void
Mar 20, 2026
#29980
Big CatBig Cat

I am done believing in Wisconsin basketball because they always rip my guts out in the tournament

I think the only lesson I've learned is like, I need to just stop believing. Because this has also become a thing where the Badgers haven't been to the Sweet 16 in like nine years... every year that we keep going is another year that I'm just reminded how close I was in 2015. I will never get back there. It just won't happen like every other team.

This is a subjective emotional state and a prediction of future failure for his own team.
Loss
Mar 20, 2026
#29981
Big CatBig Cat

High Point is not a real school; it is a four-year post-high school vacation

High Point isn't a real school. It's vacation. It's vacation use four years of post high school vacation... Students in Madison right now still have another like, solid month and a half of Winter. High Point is going and eating ice cream and in their shorts and flip flops and having steaks.

It is a real accredited university, though it is known for its luxury amenities.

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Stanford SteveStanford Steve

Indiana is the #2 ranked team in the country and is being disrespected again

I think Indiana's already getting disrespected again and it's fucking insane. I have 'em ranked two right now and I'm with you. These are big time players. They already have guys coming back on the offensive line. Nick Marsh is a pro at receiver... I'm totally with you. I think what they've, people are just gonna say, oh, they can't repeat it's Indiana. That was a fluke. Just like, look at the roster, man. It's very doable.

The 2026 season outcome for Indiana will determine if Steve's #2 ranking was prescient or absurd.
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Stanford SteveStanford Steve

Notre Dame will win the 2026 National Championship

I think Notre Dame's the real deal guys. I really expect, I, I expect them to win the national championship. The only thing, but they're in, in the Miami category, their schedule's not tough at all. I believe it's the best defense in the country coming into the season. And CJ Carr is real. The offensive line is locked and loaded.

Resolves at the end of the 2026-27 College Football Playoff.
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Stanford SteveStanford Steve

This is the best team Lincoln Riley has had at USC, and the best team Brent Venables has had at Oklahoma

When you talk to people that have gone to see USC, it sounds a lot like Oklahoma this year. This is the best team Lincoln Riley's had at USC along with [Brent] Venables. This is the best team he's had at Oklahoma. So there's no more excuses.

Subjective opinion on roster strength, though it will be contextualized by their end-of-season records.