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PMTPMT DB

Takes

Win
Big CatBig Cat

Matt Ryan is no longer a good quarterback

He's a very nice guy. We've had him on the show... He's had a great career. He's not good anymore.

Matt Ryan was benched twice during the 2022 season and retired shortly after.
Loss
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Atlanta Falcons will make the playoffs

I think the Falcons are gonna make the playoffs. Ooh, that's my take. How I think they might make the playoffs... the most likely possibility for the Falcons to make the playoffs would be if the Buccaneers imploded entirely.

The Falcons finished 7-10 and missed the playoffs.
Void
HankHank

If the 49ers fail to win a Super Bowl, it will be because of Jimmy Garoppolo

There's no reason why they shouldn't make the championship or the Super Bowl. And if they don't it's probably gonna be because of Jimmy g.

Jimmy Garoppolo got injured later in the season, and Brock Purdy led them to the NFC Championship game, where he also got hurt. It's difficult to judge since Jimmy G didn't finish the season.
Loss
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Saints will beat the Cardinals 23-17

I'm gonna say Saints 23, Cardinals 17.

The Cardinals won 42-34, which is significantly different from the predicted low-scoring Saints win.
Loss
HankHank

The Jaguars being 3-point favorites over the Giants is a trap line

Take the Jaguars minus three, the line makes no sense. Yep. Yep. Zero sense whatsoever. That's Vegas being like, take the Giants, they want you to take the giants, which means the jaguar's gonna win win handily. Don't fall for the trap. Take the jaguars.

The Giants won the game 23-17, meaning the 'trap' line was actually just a bad line or an incorrect assessment of the Giants' quality.
Push
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Jaguars have never had a good tight end in their franchise history

I don't think the Jaguars have ever had a good tight end ever. Yeah. Like Mercedes Lewis. Lewis is the only one I could think of. But when he was on the Jaguars, I think he was just mostly a blocking tight end... The Jaguars have never had a good tight end ever.

Marcedes Lewis had 700 yards and 10 TDs in 2010, which constitutes a 'good' season, though the overall history is indeed thin.
Loss
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I will buy Colts season tickets if Jim Irsay forces Dan Snyder to sell the Commanders

I've decided, you know, we talked about like, I would become a Colts fan if Jim Irsay was the straw that broke the camel's back. Yep. I'm gonna buy season tickets to the Colts next year. Wow. If, if, if Jim Irsay can get down out the fuck out, I'm gonna be a Colts season ticket holder.

Dan Snyder did sell the team in 2023, but PFT did not visibly become a Colts season ticket holder or change his primary fandom.
Loss
Billy FootballBilly Football

The Packers will have a statement win and run up the score against the Commanders

I do think the Packers are gonna use statement when they're gonna run up the score. It's gonna be one of those things. If it's like close, they're not gonna let up. They're just gonna keep running it up.

The Commanders beat the Packers 23-21.
Loss
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The winner of Titans vs. Colts will win the AFC South

I think if the Titans win this game, I'm ready to declare the Titans the winner that division... I'm ready. Whoever wins this game will win this division.

The Titans won the game, but the Jacksonville Jaguars eventually won the AFC South title that season.
Win
Sergio PerezSergio Perez

The Titans will beat the Colts in a low-scoring game

Titans. It's easier to pronounce... I think it's gonna be quite a low score.

The Titans beat the Colts 19-10. This was both a Titans win and a low-scoring game (Under).
Void
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Russell Wilson is a mentally broken man

I think yes, there is [something wrong with Russell Wilson]. I think mentally he's a broken man.

While subjective, Wilson's tenure in Denver was statistically the worst of his career and he was eventually benched and released, supporting the idea of a major breakdown in his play.
Loss
Big CatBig Cat

Russell Wilson will eventually claim a season-ending injury to get a fresh start if this continues

It does feel like this is a situation where Russell Wilson could, if it keeps going bad, be like, I'm out for the year and just do a fresh start. And I actually wouldn't blame him because a fresh start is almost what this team needs.

Wilson played 15 games in 2022. He did not opt out for the year due to injury, though he was eventually benched late in the 2023 season for financial/contract reasons.
Push
Big CatBig Cat

There are only three or four truly good teams in the NFL right now

I just don't think there's more than three or four really good teams. Like when you think about the really good teams, the Bills and the Eagles have played really good football, the Chiefs, the Giants and Jets you could throw in there, but like everyone else has... had some real stinker of games.

The Giants and Jets both regressed, but the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs remained the elite tier through the Super Bowl.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Taylor Heinicke is going to beat the fuck out of Aaron Rogers

I'm pretty pumped up about Heineke going into Green Bay and just beating the fuck out of Aaron Rogers.

On October 23, 2022, the Commanders actually beat the Packers 23-21, and Heinicke outplayed Rodgers (2 TDs to 0).
Void
Joe BurrowJoe Burrow

Harambe would record at least seven sacks a game in the NFL

You gotta take Harambe, right? I mean the strength to weight ratio is just way higher than humans. That's, I mean that's a easy seven sacks a game I'm sure.

Impossible to verify but serves as a peak 'PMT take'.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I will become a Colts fan in the AFC if Jim Irsay forces Dan Snyder to sell

I will become a Colts fan in the AFC if Jim Irsay does this [gets Dan Snyder out]. And I think he's going to, because you've never heard an owner say anything like this before.

Snyder was indeed forced to sell, and Irsay was the leading voice among owners to make it happen. PFT maintains a soft spot for Irsay.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

The Green Bay Packers are officially broken

I don't want to get excited but I think the Packers are officially broken. There's two games, the Giants and Jets, where they are a touchdown favorite in both and it just doesn't, like Aaron Rodgers doesn't lose these type of games at home.

The Packers finished the season 8-9 and missed the playoffs for the first time in the Matt LaFleur era, validating that they were indeed broken relative to their usual standards.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Brian Daboll is the runaway NFL Coach of the Year

Brian Daboll is far and away the coach of the year through six weeks... down 20 to 10 in the fourth quarter they do one of their patented like 75 yard drives where they eat some clock, get a big turnover. And the New York Giants, like they're Brian Daboll is making a good team out of just a not great roster.

Brian Daboll did eventually win the 2022 AP NFL Coach of the Year award.
Loss
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Atlanta Falcons will win the NFC South

I'm actually thinking about putting a future on the Falcons to win that division. I think the Falcons are definitely good.

The Falcons finished last in the NFC South in 2022.
Push
HankHank

Bailey Zappe should remain the Patriots starter even if Mac Jones is healthy

Bailey Zappe is very fun to watch... unless Bailey Zappe puts up an absolute stinker next week, I would be surprised if they take him out to starter.

Mac Jones returned the following week but was benched for Zappe during the game. However, Jones remained the primary starter for most of the season.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Pete Carroll won the breakup with Russell Wilson

I'm ready to say that Pete Carroll won the Russell Wilson breakup right now. I'd agree. I think he's miles ahead. He's back on the scene. He's dating, he's having a good time. Russell Wilson is just trying to like put on social media how happy he is, but he knows that he's not happy.

The Seahawks finished 9-8 and made the playoffs, while Russell Wilson had the worst season of his career and the Broncos finished 5-12.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Monte Sweat is a better player than Chase Young

Our defensive line played well. Monte Sweat is a monster. I actually think Monte Sweat is better than Chase Young. Even when Chase Young was healthy.

While Chase Young won DROY, Monte Sweat became a Pro Bowler and has been more productive and healthy, eventually leading to him being a highly valued trade asset for the Bears.
Loss
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Dan Snyder is willing to take down the entire NFL with him if forced to sell

Dan Snyder's entire strategy is, if you take me out, I'm taking everybody out with you. And he is going to, Dan Snyder is willing to take down the entire NFL with him.

Snyder did eventually sell the team, but no major 'dirt' report that brought down the league materialized after his exit.
Loss
HankHank

The Baltimore Ravens will win by 20 and the regression starts this week for the Giants and Jets

I think everyone's riding high on the Giants and the Jets. Honestly, I think maybe it's biased just living in New York and hearing the excitement... I don't think it's gonna happen. I think the regression starts this week. The Ravens win by 20.

The Giants beat the Ravens 24-20 on October 16, 2022. The Jets also won their game that week against the Packers. Regression did not start this week.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I'm taking the Rams -10 because the Panthers are in a dark place

I'm taking the Rams. It's a lot of points minus 10, but I feel like the Panthers are just in a dark place right now. I'm not seeing an interim coach bump for them... it's a get back game for Sean McVay.

The Rams beat the Panthers 24-10, covering the 10-point spread.
Loss
Big CatBig Cat

The Bengals are just not a good team right now

I don't think the Bengals are good and it's, maybe they'll figure it out, but right now I just don't think they're playing good football... nothing looks easy for them.

The Bengals finished the season 12-4 and made it back to the AFC Championship game, proving they were a very good team.
Loss
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Cardinals vs. Seahawks game will be a high-scoring shootout

My favorite over is Cardinals Seahawks over 51... This to me just screams shootout. It does 51 points over.

The Seahawks won 19-9. The total was 28, well under the 51-point line.
Loss
Billy FootballBilly Football

Turnovers increase the likelihood of succeeding on a 4th down or 2-pt conversion via 'vibe' multipliers

Basically the percentage of converting a two point conversion or on fourth down basically gets increased depending on what type of turnover happens before that possession... after an interception, a fourth down conversion or a two point conversion increases by let's say 110%.

While 'momentum' is a debated concept, a 110% increase is mathematically absurd, and 'vibe' multipliers are not recognized by standard NFL analytics.
Loss
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Travis Kelce could score four touchdowns every game if the Chiefs really wanted him to

I feel like Travis Kelce, if the Chiefs really, really wanted to, he could score four touchdowns every single game.

Kelce had 4 TDs in this game but did not repeat this feat. Scoring 4 TDs every game is physically and statistically impossible in the NFL.
Void
Big CatBig Cat

Patrick Mahomes should be the all-time Monday Night Football quarterback

I do think that [Patrick] Mahomes should just be all-time quarterback... Mahomes is going to play on Monday Night Football every week until they lose. And then the team that beats them deserves to get the Monday Night Football crown.

This is a subjective proposal for entertainment value and can't be factually correct or incorrect.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Making roughing the passer reviewable will make the problem ten times worse

What's gonna happen is it's gonna make the problem 10 times worse because you're gonna have 10 minute reviews of referees reviewing a subjective call and then no one's gonna agree whether or not it's roughing the passer or not on the review.

The NFL notably declined to make roughing the passer reviewable the following offseason, partly fearing this exact outcome. PFT's reasoning aligns with league logic.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Raiders are much better than the Denver Broncos

Even though they're what, one and four? Yeah. I still think [the Raiders] are a much better team than the Denver Broncos.

The Raiders swept the Broncos in 2022 and finished 6-11 compared to the Broncos' 5-12. Statistically and via head-to-head, the Raiders were better.
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Uncle ChapsUncle Chaps

Trevor Lawrence sucks at throwing the deep ball

I don't think [Trevor Lawrence] sucks, but he definitely sucks throwing the deep ball, which makes him suck. And they don't really have anybody to catch it either... some of the throws that he's made when people are wide open... he just can't make 'em.

Lawrence's deep-ball accuracy remained a statistical point of contention throughout 2022, though he improved significantly in the second half of the season.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Brian Daboll is a fantastic head coach

Brian Daboll is a fucking awesome coach. I'm gonna say he is a Hoss, he's awesome. I like his entire coaching staff actually like Wink Martindale. No one thought the Giants were gonna be four and one.

The Giants went on to make the playoffs and win a road playoff game in Daboll's first year, validating this assessment.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Daniel Jones might play himself into a contract extension

The Giants are essentially saying Daniel Jones isn't the guy. So we're gonna just basically say we don't really care about his long term health. We'll run him all the time, but he might just be such a gamer that he just runs himself into a contract extension where he's like, Hey you basically said we'll waste his health to try to eek out a few wins and now he's just winning while injured.

Daniel Jones signed a 4-year, $160 million extension with the Giants following the 2022 season.
Void
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Browns are now officially 'the Chargers'

I think that the Browns are the Chargers. The Browns have taken the Chargers label from the Chargers. They're the most Chargers team in the NFL taking that crown from I guess the Chargers.

The Browns finished 7-10 with several close losses, while the actual Chargers also had a classic 'Chargers' collapse in the playoffs.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

A coach should be fired once they've clearly hit their peak and started declining

The rule for like cleaning the entire house is you have to, if you can sit there and be like, have we hit our peak? And [the Commanders] covering the spread against the Bucs in the playoffs was your peak. That was absolutely. But when you can, when you can actually say you can point to it, you're like, that was the peak and it's been all downhill from that point. That's fire the coach time.

Ron Rivera was eventually fired after the 2023 season as the team continued to decline from that playoff peak.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Russell Wilson was a system quarterback and Pete Carroll fleeced the Broncos

I think it's fair to say at this point that Russell Wilson might have been a system quarterback. Because Geno Smith right now, if we're grading who won that trade? Pete Carroll is doing the monopoly man's strut and he is like, Yeah, fucking fleece. The Broncos got fleeced, he got rid of Russell Wilson. Like he was bad penny.

Geno Smith won Comeback Player of the Year and made the Pro Bowl while Russell Wilson had a disastrous first season in Denver, leading to the firing of Nathaniel Hackett.
Void
Big CatBig Cat

The NFL's new 'wobble rule' will lead to players staying on the ground to avoid being spotted

This is so classic NFL because now every single coach is gonna teach their players: Just stay down for an extra second. Get yourself together and then stand up or have a lineman that goes and picks them up and like holds them for a second so they can't visible wobble.

While hard to verify across every play, linemen helping QBs up quickly and QBs taking a beat to steady themselves became common practice.
Loss
Billy FootballBilly Football

I could be a successful NFL coach by 'coaching on vibes'

In my head, everyone's like, thing is so crazy. Why don't we just go for 10 points? Because then they can't beat us with a touchdown and a field goal. If we were rolling we should just keep rolling. [Big Cat: Billy would always coach on vibes].

The math was actually corrected by Big Cat and PFT during the segment, showing Billy's 'vibe' coaching was factually wrong.
Loss
HankHank

The Patriots will make the playoffs if they keep wearing their throwback jerseys

If they wore those jerseys [Pat Patriot throwbacks], they make the playoffs here. [Big Cat: The logo in the center of the field, the jerseys pop, the helmets pop. Bailey Zappy pops].

The Patriots did not make the playoffs in 2022, finishing with an 8-9 record.
Loss
Big CatBig Cat

The Dan Campbell 'tough loser' era is effectively over

I think that Dan Campbell thing is done. I think it's done. I feel like I've seen the same thing you were saying. They're the most fun team with football. They're fun, but that doesn't mean the coach is good. They make self-inflicted errors every week. I just feel like Dan Campbell leads the league in just doing dumb shit and then getting in front of the media and just being like, that's on me.

This take was spectacularly wrong. Campbell turned the Lions around to finish 9-8 that season and became one of the league's best coaches.
Void
HankHank

I prefer Bailey Zappy over Mac Jones right now

Currently? As it stands right now? [PFT: Zappy meal or Big Mac?] I, I gimme Zappy meal. Flavor of the week is Bailey Zappy. I'm eating.

Mac Jones eventually took the starting job back, though both struggled. Zappy did not permanently replace him in 2022.
Loss
Big CatBig Cat

Justin Fields will have 17+ completions against the Commanders

Justin Fields is gonna have 17 completions plus. [PFT: 17 with the overall there?] 17 plus. [Big Cat: That's an insane game].

Justin Fields had only 14 completions in the following game against the Commanders.
Void
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The roughing the passer call against Tom Brady was the worst call in NFL history

I think that roughing the passer call sucked. Do you think that was the worst call in NFL history? I think it might be the worst call in NFL history.

Widely regarded as one of the worst officiating errors of the 2022 season, helping the Bucs secure a win they might have lost.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Matt Rhule should take a college job immediately to save his buyout

Gotta end it. Matt Rhule can't sustain more blowout losses. Get that buyout less, let him get a job in college. This relationship... it's crescendoing to that loss. This was a firing type of loss.

Matt Rhule was fired the very next day (Oct 11, 2022) and was hired by Nebraska shortly after.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

DeMeco Ryans will be a top-tier head coach within three years

DeMeco Ryans will be coaching in a playoff game within three years of getting a job. I'm going to double stamp it and I'll go one further. He will be way, way, way, way, way above average head coach.

Ryans was hired by the Texans in 2023 and won a playoff game in his very first season (2023-24).
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Kyler Murray has zero situational awareness

Kyler Murray situational awareness 0.0. He slide canceled... he starts his slide like two yards before the sticks. It's crazy. And then gets up and thinks that you had it first down. He slide canceled if you're gonna put it in Call of Duty terms.

Kyler Murray literally spiked the ball on 3rd down because he thought he had the first down, ending their chance to run more plays.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

You should never trust a muscular kicker; they must be 'little nerds'

You do not want to have a jacked kicker on your team. It's hiring a skinny chef. You want your kicker to be a little fucking nerd. [Matt Ammendola] is just the biceps a little bit. Nobody wants to see that. You want him to be really skinny and just have a big fucking leg.

Ammendola missed a critical field goal to tie the game shortly after this discussion was taped.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Russell Wilson officially stinks

We saw Russell Wilson. Just he, can we just say he stinks cuz he stinks. Russell Wilson sucks. Stinks. I think he sucks right now. He's, It's worse than stinks. He's throwing behind everybody. He's playing like he's scared to do anything out there. Anything. He's terrified.

Wilson finished the 2022 season with career lows in completion percentage and passer rating, leading to Hackett's firing. His performance was widely considered poor.