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HankHank

The Bills will win the AFC East for the next 10 to 15 years

There's no reason why [the Bills] shouldn't be beating the Patriots for the next 10, 15 years... those days are over. The Bills, you know, they have the East for now.

The Bills have won the AFC East every year since this take (2022, 2023), but 10-15 years is still pending.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Eagles can get a franchise QB by trading their three 2022 first-round picks

They have three picks... you can go get a franchise quarterback with your three picks. You have three first-round picks. You could... that would be an incredible move because you're not mortgaging the future. You're mortgaging right now, right? For an incredible franchise quarterback.

The Eagles didn't trade for a QB; they stuck with Jalen Hurts, who led them to a Super Bowl the very next season. They did use one of those picks to trade for WR A.J. Brown.
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Big CatBig Cat

Mike McCarthy's brain processes information slowly because he is obese

I am this person myself... Mike McCarthy and so I am this person, myself... when they zoom in on his face, I'm like, he's so fat that he just thinks slower than everyone. Like, that's what I think. I'm like he's—he's not processing at the same speed. He's like an old, outdated computer.

This is a biological fallacy and a joke.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Any head coach the Bears hire will fail because the organization is broken

I've come to a bad realization with it—with my wisdom in life—is that it's not the coach. It's the organization. Like whoever gets hired is going to fail because the organization will fail them... 90% chance will fail because the Bears are broken, terrible organization.

Matt Eberflus (hired shortly after this) has a losing record and the Bears have remained a bottom-tier team since.
Void
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Joe Judge might have gotten a raw deal from the Giants

In fact I'm I think Joe judge might've gotten a raw deal. My new theory on Joe, Joe is he got a completely raw deal. And the plan was always for him to come back next year. But when he got the reins to the, to the team, they essentially said, all right, you're going to run the show... I think they didn't give Joe judge and Gettleman as much room to work with as they said they were going to.

Subjective interpretation of internal team dynamics.
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Big CatBig Cat

Joe Judge intentionally tried to get fired by the Giants

I still am convinced that he tried to get fired because if you look at the timeline, he, his job was guaranteed for next year. And then he completely lost his mind saying the weirdest shit, QB sneaks. And then obviously the finale of saying he wants more power. I think he was essentially like, I want to get fired. I don't want to coach this team anymore.

Subjective interpretation of coach's intent.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Over (49) is a good play for Raiders vs. Bengals

I think that the, the over is a good play in this game. I think we're going to see a shitload of points right now. It's at 49. Okay. Neither one of these teams is spectacular on defense and they both kind of just strike me as teams that they, they panic later on in games.

The final score was Bengals 26, Raiders 19, totaling 45 points. The under hit.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Eagles will cover the spread against the Buccaneers

I think the Eagles are gonna cover. Yeah. I think it's one of those matchup things to back that up. I like the Eagles they're kind of in there. The team that's being disrespected the most... I think the weather is going to contribute and I think the bucks are going to win by six.

The Buccaneers won 31-15 (16 point margin). The Eagles did not cover the +8.5 spread.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Tom Brady is 0-5 against the spread against the NFC East in the playoffs

The stat that I have that backs that up is Tom Brady has owned five against the spread against the NFC east in the playoffs. So his own five, he's got he's two and three straight up.

At the time, this was correct: 2 losses to Giants (SB 42, 46), loss to Eagles (SB 52), and wins over Eagles (2004 SB) and Washington (2020) where he failed to cover high spreads.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

The 49ers could beat anyone in the NFC

I think the 49ers can they're there the team in the NFC that like they could beat anyone. You know what I mean? They're they're the team that has the lowest seed where I'm like, yup. If you told me the 49ers ended up in the super bowl. I wouldn't, I wouldn't think that's a crazy.

The 49ers went on to beat the Cowboys and the #1 seed Packers to reach the NFC Championship Game, proving they could beat anyone in the conference.
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Matt LaFleurMatt LaFleur

Kicking the field goal down 8 in the 2020 NFCCG was the best decision for the team

I'll tell you what you look at, how many plays inside the red zone, especially you're talking about eight plus are successful in that situation. And I just felt like it was best. I thought our defense was playing well and thought we could get the stop. And unfortunately you're damned if you do damned, if you don't... had I be in that same situation again, I really do think that was the best thing for us.

This is a subjective coaching philosophy choice, though widely criticized by analysts.
Loss
Big CatBig Cat

I am officially mortal locking the Packers to win the Super Bowl

I'm going to do something I never thought I would do... but you guys are gonna win the super bowl this year. It's pretty much guaranteed. I might actually mortal lock it. If you win the super bowl, I'd like you to come back on. Pardon? My take. And I will, I will eat shit.

The Packers lost their first playoff game to the 49ers (13-10) in the Divisional Round.
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Billy FootballBilly Football

There will be a dildo on the field in Buffalo for the Patriots game

I have a prediction. Yes. I think there's going to be a dildo on the field again. No, no. I just have a feeling. I got a feeling they're going to be on their best behavior.

No dildo was reported on the field during the Bills-Patriots Wild Card game.
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Jake MarshJake Marsh

Someone will score four touchdowns in the Patriots vs. Bills game

I've got a cool number thing on this game. The spread is four. Yup. The temperature is going to be four. The over-under is 44. Whoa... maybe someone will score four touchdowns.

Dawson Knox scored 2, Devin Singletary scored 2. No single player scored 4, though the team scored 7 total.
Void
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

NFL owners are generally idiots with the same IQ level as a dumb coworker

The person that owns your favorite team is a pretty big idiot. Just like the sooner you come to terms with that, the better they're just they're morons. Like everybody else, like think of the dumbest people that you work with that is typically about the same IQ level as an NFL owner.

This is an inherently subjective opinion about intelligence and competence.
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Big CatBig Cat

Ted Phillips is the root of the Bears' problems and uses the Arlington Heights move to avoid being fired

The only way the bears can be fixed is Ted Phillips has to go... he's obviously in charge of the Arlington Heights land purchase. And I think that will never happen because Ted Phillips knows, as long as they're still negotiating it, he will still have a job.

Ted Phillips eventually retired in 2023. The Arlington Heights project remains in progress, validating the idea that it was a long-term shield.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Joe Judge staying with the Giants makes him a 'human shield' for the new GM

For a GM, [the Giants job] is absolutely [attractive] because you do have some draft picks this year... and then you have the perfect scapegoat and Joe judge, nobody expects anything out of Joe judge next year, right? Human shield. Yes. You need a human shield.

The Giants actually fired Joe Judge on Jan 11, 2022, right as this episode was dropping (the show acknowledges they recorded before he was fired).
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Big CatBig Cat

The Seahawks should bring back Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson because they are better than 80% of the league

The Seahawks will be so smart to just bring Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson back... You're better with these two guys than like 80% of the [NFL].

The Seahawks traded Wilson to Denver in March 2022. They kept Carroll and actually made the playoffs with Geno Smith, arguably proving they were okay without Wilson.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Andrew Luck looks extremely happy and appears to have zero interest in returning to football

Andrew luck shows up out of nowhere... and he looked like he's lost about 70 pounds. My God, I actually don't think that Andrew luck has picked up a football in the last three years. And he looks really happy.

Luck has remained retired and has since spoken about his happiness post-football, confirming this observation.
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Jersey JerryJersey Jerry

The Steelers will beat the Chiefs in the playoffs because Kansas City is due for a bad game

I really think the Steelers could beat the chiefs... the chiefs are due for a bad game, man. They really are just due for one... I wouldn't be surprised [if they win] because they're due.

The Chiefs beat the Steelers 42-21 on January 16, 2022.
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Jersey JerryJersey Jerry

TJ Watt is definitively the best defensive player in football

For anybody who's been watching the NFL this year or the past three years... the best defensive player in football has been TJ watt. It's a fact.

TJ Watt won the 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award, tying the single-season sack record.
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Jersey JerryJersey Jerry

The NFL is rigged for ratings and views

How somehow some way, and the fourth quarter... the scores magically are going to line up. If this team gets a touchdown in a two point conversion, it's like, wow, it's, it's rigged. This is rigged for ratings, for views.

There is no verifiable evidence that the NFL rigs game outcomes for ratings.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Raiders were smart to win rather than tie because they have a better chance against the Bengals than the Chiefs

On just a level for the Raiders, it was smart to go for the win. Once they're in that spot at the end of the game... if you let the Chargers in, you have to go play the Chiefs, right? Where now you get to go play the Bengals. I mean, the Bengals are better than the Raiders, but they have a lot better of a chance against the Bengals than they have against the Chiefs who has had their number and kick their ass this year.

The Raiders did play the Bengals and lost 26-19 in a close game, while the Chiefs blew out the Steelers 42-21 in the same round, supporting the idea that the Bengals were a more manageable opponent.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

This was the best Week 18 in the history of the NFL

I'm just going to say that was the best Week 18 in the history of the NFL. It came right down to the last game of the last week. Congratulations, Roger Goodell. You've done it again.

This was only the first year of the 17-game schedule (Week 18), so technically it was the best by default, though it was genuinely highly dramatic.
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Big CatBig Cat

Brandon Staley's decision to go for it on 4th and 1 from his own 18-yard line was absolutely insane

Brandon Staley living and dying by going forward on fourth down... the Raiders were up three and Brandon Staley went forward on fourth and one on his own 20... It was 17-14. They went for it on fourth and one at their own 18 with 8:57 left in the third quarter. That's how crazy he is guys. Fucking crazy.

The decision was widely criticized as the Raiders scored shortly after, and the Chargers ultimately lost the game and missed the playoffs.
Loss
HankHank

The Patriots are ready to face the Bills and should face them head-on

I've never been more ready for anything in my life... why wait? You know, the bills are the better team they're favored all that shit. They're at home, but this is what you want. Why run? Why not just face it head on.

The Patriots were absolutely demolished by the Bills 47-17 in the Wild Card round, making this confidence look misplaced.
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Big CatBig Cat

George Kittle is the lock for the Nickelodeon MVP (NVP)

It's gotta be Kittle. We gotta keep it in the family. Kittle would be nice. You have to keep it in the, I think that's the only answer. It's Kittle. It's Kittle no matter what... Congratulations to George Kittle. If there is a fan vote, he has won MVP.

Dak Prescott actually won the NVP for the 49ers vs Cowboys game, despite the Cowboys losing.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Jaguars fans should keep wearing clown outfits because they are undefeated as clowns

You also got to keep wearing clown outfits. I think if you're Jags fans, right? You're undefeated as the clowns. Yes. You are the clowns. Change the team name to the clowns.

Hot TakeFootballHotSarcastic
The Jaguars did not change their name to the Clowns, though they did find more success in the following season after firing Urban Meyer.
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Big CatBig Cat

Joe Judge has done everything in his power to get himself fired since being told he was staying

Joe Judge was told that he was going to keep his job on December 26... after that moment, he lost a combined 85 to 20 in the three games... he did a QB sneak from the three yard line and the four yard line on second and 10 and third and nine because he was too scared about giving up a safety. I have never seen someone be told that they're going to get to keep their job and done everything in their power to try to have them reverse that decision.

Joe Judge was indeed fired by the Giants on January 11, 2022, just one day after this podcast aired, proving the decision-making was fatal to his tenure.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Kirk Cousins needs to play worse to help his team win

Kirk Cousins is without a doubt like top 10, maybe top 5 guy in some of those [stat] categories. I think I figured out his problem though, because they lost a lot of games where he played well, statistically. Well, I think he's just too good. And I think that he scores too fast sometimes, and then puts his defense in a position to lose. Kirk needs to get a little bit worse at playing if he wants to be truly good.

The take is satirical and inherently illogical, meant to mock stat-based arguments in football.
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Big CatBig Cat

Matt Stafford will throw a critical interception that ends the Rams' season

But he's just, you know what I mean? Like that feeling of, well, this is like, there'll be a moment and he will make sure that he throws an interception in that moment. That critical moment. And then your season's over.

This turned out to be famously incorrect as Stafford led the Rams to a Super Bowl victory that same postseason, making several clutch plays without a season-ending mistake.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson will both return to the Seahawks next year

I now think that both Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson will come back next year. Why not? I think they're going to, I think they're going to run it back... Getting a quarterback as good as Russell Wilson is very tough to do in this league. I would say it's very tough. Getting a coach like Pete Carroll is tough to do in this league. Why don't we just try to give it another shot?

This was only partially correct; Pete Carroll stayed, but Russell Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos in March 2022.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Saints would have been the one seed if Jameis Winston hadn't gotten injured

The real question is do the saints get the one seed overall if Jameis Winston doesn't get injured. [PFT: Yes.] I think definitely. I think definitely.

The Saints were 5-2 when Jameis got hurt and finished 9-8. While plausible, it's impossible to verify.
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Big CatBig Cat

Antonio Brown and Bruce Arians are likely both at fault for the Buccaneers drama

I think the truth is probably Antonio Brown and Bruce Arians are both assholes. Like that might be the truth because it seems like a lot of people are taking the side of Antonio Brown because you have to take the side of player safety... Bruce Arians never wanted Antonio Brown on the Bucs. That was Tom Brady's idea. So it's not totally unbelievable that Bruce Arians would be like, 'You're outta here because you won't go back in the game.'

The truth remains somewhat obscured, but both parties moved on contentiously, confirming a breakdown in the relationship as Big Cat suggested.
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Big CatBig Cat

Antonio Brown will not be back on an NFL team

I don't think Antonio Brown will be back on an NFL team. I guess you can never say never... but I don't think he's going anywhere.

Antonio Brown never played in the NFL again after his release from the Buccaneers following the January 2, 2022 game against the Jets.
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Big CatBig Cat

I really hope Big Ben shows up to training camp next year and claims he was joking about retiring

I really, really hope deep down. He just shows up to training camp next year. And he's like, what? Wait, what I was, I was just joking. Like I wasn't serious. I'm still [a] Steeler.

Ben Roethlisberger officially retired and did not return for the 2022 training camp.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Big Ben benefited more from existing pre-social media than any other quarterback

Nobody benefited more from existing pre-social media than Big Ben. Yes. That is absolutely true.

Subjective historical analysis of media eras.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Browns screwed up Baker Mayfield's season by not forcing him to get healthy earlier

I actually still think that the Browns like baker deserves a lot of blame for not having a good year, but the Browns deserve a lot of blame for kind of bungling this entire injury. Like they never really were like, Hey baker, let's get you healthy and try to put it all back together. Instead there they were, it was just every week, let's get you out there. And he got progressively injured and was playing progressively worse.

Mayfield played most of the season with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, which clearly impacted his mechanics and performance.
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Big CatBig Cat

You can't give Baker Mayfield a record-breaking contract right now

He definitely falls in the camp of a guy that you can't be giving a record breaking contract to. That's not like something wild. That's not a hot take. I think we all agree with that. He's not an upper echelon quarterback right now.

Baker Mayfield was traded to the Panthers the following offseason and did not receive a record-breaking deal from the Browns.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The new Washington team name will be the 'Red Hogs'

I'm thinking it's going to be the red hogs, which I, which I love actually, because you're given a throwback to the hogs, the old offensive line. And you can do so much cool shit with pissed off looking pigs.

The team officially became the Washington Commanders on February 2, 2022.
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Kirk HerbstreitKirk Herbstreit

If you are concerned about getting hurt in a bowl game, you should not play

If you play in a bull game and you're worried, oh my gosh, I'm playing in this bowl game. But what if I get hurt? You're going to get hurt... If there's any fear at all about what's at stake... I would say, don't do it. You got to play the game. It is a reckless game.

This is a philosophical coaching/playing take that isn't strictly verifiable but is a standard football axiom.
Push
Kirk HerbstreitKirk Herbstreit

College football players are on a path toward becoming unionized employees

I say, we make the players, employees. I say, we're going on a path. Now we form a union. I mean, that's where we're going with this thing... because players need to be treated that way. They need to benefit more than they are not just with name, image and likeness.

The landscape has shifted dramatically toward this reality with revenue sharing and court rulings since 2022, though formal unionization isn't universal yet.
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Kirk HerbstreitKirk Herbstreit

Cincinnati would have stayed ahead of Oklahoma State in the playoff rankings even if the Cowboys had won the Big 12

My hunch is Cincinnati would have gone ahead of them. I think that's my hunch... Because of where they were all year. I mean, think about it. They weren't coming from 28 working their way, all the way up... they were invited to the party before the season started.

Hypothetical scenario that cannot be verified.
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Big CatBig Cat

Georgia is a better team than Alabama this year

I still do think Georgia is a better team than Alabama. And I think that they've been better all year.

Georgia defeated Alabama in the National Championship game shortly after this episode, proving they were the better team in the final matchup.
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Kirk HerbstreitKirk Herbstreit

If I'm Georgia, I am jamming Jameson Williams at the line of scrimmage every single snap

I'm literally taking a guy no matter where number one [Jameson Williams] goes... I'm jamming his ass. It's a line of scrimmage, every single snap with a safety over top. And I'm making either Brian Robinson win the game... Jameson Williams destroyed them. The last game they played, he can't beat me. He cannot beat me.

Williams got injured early in the game, making the strategy moot, but Georgia's defense held Alabama to 18 points.
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Jimmy GrahamJimmy Graham

I am willing to die on certain plays; that is the level of commitment needed

I gave myself no other option... I play with this type of intensity and tenacity that, you know, I was willing to, you know, I mean, I was willing to die on certain plays out there. And that's kinda how I took it most of my career.

Subjective personal reflection on his own career intensity.
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Jimmy GrahamJimmy Graham

This Sunday might be my last NFL game

Hopefully this is my last game, you know, that's, that's kind of where my mindset is... I got to figure out what's next for me, you know? And, and I got to figure out if there's an opportunity for me to go onto, you know, you know, contender next year.

He didn't play in 2022 but returned for a stint with the Saints in 2023.
Win
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

It's a law of the universe that long-haired quarterbacks don't win Super Bowls

It's not even really long hair curse. It's just a demonstrable fact that long hair quarterbacks have never won a Superbowl... It's a law of the universe.

Historically, Super Bowl-winning QBs have almost exclusively had short hair. Kenny Stabler and Patrick Mahomes (who has curly/longer hair but not 'flowing') are the closest exceptions.
Push
Big CatBig Cat

The Titans are the one seed that can legitimately play the 'nobody believes in us' card

You are, this is the rarest thing you can have in all sports. You're literally the one seed in the AFC and you're disrespected. That's incredible to be able to play that card of like no one believes in us and truly no one believes in us.

The Titans lost their first playoff game as the 1-seed to the Bengals, largely proving the skeptics right.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Joe Burrow is an elite NFL quarterback

Joe Burrow, I think last week I said he was a leader. I think he's elite. I think Joe Burrow... I think I'm ready to officially declare right now... he just is.

Joe Burrow led the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance later this season, cementing his status as one of the league's top-tier quarterbacks.