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Chris Long Talking Divisional Round, Adam Schefter On Coaching Carousel, Picks And Preview + Fyre Fest

Friday, January 17, 202521 takes

NFL Divisional round is here but first a deep dive on the Italian soccer team Falconer who got kicked off the team for getting a penis enlargement (-). We then talk every game for Saturday and Sunday. Do the Texans have a shot? Can Commanders magic run continue? Will Jalen Hurts find AJ Brown and Ravens/Bills should be awesome (-). 2X Super Bowl Champion Chris Long joins the show to talk Divisional round, matchups he can’t wait to see, what it’s like to get a new Head Coach and more (-). Adam Schefter joins us to talk Head Coach carousel, Cowboys possibly going for Deion and more. We finish with Fyre Fest of the week (-).

Chris Long on Divisional Round, Adam Schefter on Deion to Dallas

It is officially one of the best weekends of the year. The lopsided Wild Card blowouts are in the rearview mirror, and we are left with the elite eight. PFT made it very clear that while Wild Card weekend has volume, the Divisional Round has the prestige.

Void
Jan 17, 2025
#12178
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Divisional Round is the best sports weekend of the year

This is my favorite sports weekend of the year. Because in Wild Card weekend, sometimes you have, you get some lopsided matchups. Divisional round, you get the prestigious teams, you get the elite teams.

This is an inherently subjective opinion about personal preference.

The guys kicked things off with the most electric rumor in the sport: Deion Sanders potentially taking over the headset in Dallas. While some people might look at it as a circus, PFT is all-in on the theater of Coach Prime and Jerry Jones sharing a sideline.

Void
Jan 17, 2025
#12179
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Dion Sanders to the Cowboys would be an incredible story for the NFL

I want it because it would be just an incredible story for the NFL. Having Dion in the NFL, especially for the Dallas Cowboys, would be awesome. I wanna see Dion interacting with Jerry Jones... Dion will not be pushed around by Jerry Jones.

The entertainment value is subjective, though Dion did not become the head coach in early 2025.

Before getting into the picks, Big Cat took a moment to double down on his defense of Justin Herbert. After the Chargers' season ended, the Herbert haters have been out in full force, but Big Cat isn't selling his stock to anyone.

Void
Jan 17, 2025
#12180
Big CatBig Cat

If you think Justin Herbert is a bad quarterback, I question whether or not you watch football

I mean, if you really think that Justin Herbert is a bad quarterback, I question whether or not you watch football. I do.

Herbert's quality is a matter of ongoing debate, making this subjective.

Saturday: Mahomes vs. The Field

Starting with Texans at Chiefs, the conversation inevitably turned to the dominance of Patrick Mahomes. He isn't just good in the Divisional Round; he is historically untouchable. Big Cat pointed out the terrifying stats that Houston is walking into at Arrowhead.

Win
Jan 17, 2025·Picks
#12181
Big CatBig Cat

Patrick Mahomes is basically lights out in the Divisional Round

He plays in this divisional round and he's basically just, he's, I mean he's undefeated. He lights out. That's just what happens. He is six and oh. He has 1,813 total yards, 16 touchdowns... zero interceptions.

Mahomes was 6-0 in divisional games prior to 2025. In the 2025 divisional round, the Chiefs beat the Texans, making him 7-0.

While Mahomes is the engine, Travis Kelce remains the playoff cheat code. The guys discussed how Kelce seems to save his best for the postseason, flipping a switch that most defenders can't find.

Push
Jan 17, 2025·Picks
#12182
Big CatBig Cat

Travis Kelce ramps it up in the playoffs compared to the regular season

I do think this is where Travis Kelce ramps it up. Like, I like his over yards. I think this is, he, he, he plays in second gear for the majority of the regular season. And then when you get to these points... it's Travis Kelce or Mahomes using his feet.

Travis Kelce had some big playoff moments (he scored TDs in the playoffs), but in Super Bowl LIX the Chiefs were dominated 22-40. The 'ramping up in playoffs' narrative was partially true through the AFC playoffs but fell apart in the Super Bowl.

PFT is keeping a close eye on CJ Stroud's legs in this one. Stroud has shown he can scramble when the pocket breaks down, and PFT expects that to be a major factor against the Kansas City pass rush.

Open
Jan 17, 2025·Picks
#26502
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

CJ Stroud will rush for over 14.5 yards in the Divisional Round against the Chiefs.

I like CJ Stroud over 14.5 rushing yards. I like that a lot too. Last week that hit... CJ can run. He can use his feet. I think he'll do it again.

The actual rushing total for CJ Stroud in the Divisional game will determine the outcome.

The Lions and Commanders Showdown

Moving to the nightcap, PFT is riding a wave of Commanders' magic. He admitted the Lions are probably the best team in the NFC, but he thinks Detroit might get a little tight if Jaden Daniels keeps it close late.

Loss
Jan 17, 2025·Picks
#12183
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

If the Commanders keep the Lions game within one score in the 4th quarter, they will win

If we can keep it within a score, Jaden Daniels can go out there and win the game. And the Lions' buttholes might get tight.

The Commanders beat the Lions 45-31, winning decisively. However, they didn't need to keep it within one score in the 4th — they led big for most of the game. The spirit of PFT's take was that they could pull the upset, which they did, but the mechanism was wrong (it wasn't a close-game scenario).
Win
Jan 17, 2025·Picks
#26497
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Lions have been the best team in the NFC for the entire season.

I've said all year the Lions are the best team in the NFC.

PFT Commenter said the Lions were the best team in the NFC all season (January 2025). The Lions finished 15-2, the best record in the NFC and tied for best in the NFL. They were the NFC's No. 1 seed. This take was factually correct at the time it was made.

Sunday: Cold Weather and Coaching Wizards

For Rams at Eagles, Big Cat expects Vic Fangio to have some tricks up his sleeve for a Matthew Stafford who isn't exactly a "cold weather guy" anymore. The Philly defense might be the deciding factor if they can rattle Stafford early.

Win
Jan 17, 2025·Picks
#12184
Big CatBig Cat

Vic Fangio will dial up something to stifle the Rams offense

I think Vic Fangio is gonna have, he's gonna dial some shit up. Stafford, older, doesn't play well in cold weather. I think Vic Fangio is gonna have, he's gonna dial some shit up.

Vic Fangio's Eagles defense dominated the Rams in the Divisional Round, winning 28-22. The Eagles defense stifled the Rams offense, and Stafford struggled in the cold weather, as Big Cat predicted.

Max shared his deep-seated fear of the punt return. For a team with Cooper DeJean back there, the stress levels are through the roof because of how quickly one muffed catch can end a season.

Void
Jan 17, 2025·Picks
#26496
MaxMax

Returning punts is the scariest play in football because of the high risk of a game-changing turnover.

Returning punts is the scariest play in football for me. Because I feel that it has to be the highest percentage play of turnover. It's very easy to turn the ball over on a punt and it completely changes the game.

This is a subjective opinion on the 'scariest' play, though the turnover risk is a verifiable trend.

Finally, for Ravens vs. Bills, PFT is questioning if Lamar Jackson is ready for the single-digit temperatures in Orchard Park. Lamar is a Florida guy at heart, and eight degrees is a long way from Broward County.

Push
Jan 17, 2025·Picks
#12185
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Lamar Jackson may struggle because he doesn't like the cold

Coldest game that Lamar Jackson's ever played. Guess what it was? 27. This is eight degrees is very different from 27. Lamar, in their earlier matchup this season, the temperature was like 60 and he was wearing a hoodie and a beanie for it. I don't know that Lamar loves the cold.

The Ravens lost to the Bills 25-27 in the Divisional Round on January 19, 2025, in cold weather in Buffalo. Lamar Jackson played decently (18-of-25, 254 yards, 2 TDs) but the Ravens lost partly due to turnovers and a dropped 2-point conversion. The cold may have been a factor but Jackson's individual stats were solid.

Chris Long and Adam Schefter Stop By

Our good friend Chris Long joined the show to break down the matchups from a player's perspective. He thinks the Texans' only hope is keeping Mahomes contained, though that is easier said than done. He also gave massive props to Sean McVay's coaching ability.

Void
Jan 17, 2025
#12187
Chris LongChris Long

Sean McVay is one of the best coaches of our generation

I think Sean McVay is a wizard. I really do. I think Sean McVay is one of the best coaches of our generation. I think he is that good.

This is a subjective assessment of a coach's legacy.

When it comes to the Bills, Chris Long thinks the key isn't necessarily the big names, but Khalil Shakir, who has emerged as Josh Allen's most reliable target when it matters most. He's so confident in Buffalo that he's ready to put his money where his mouth is.

Win
Jan 17, 2025
#12188
Chris LongChris Long

Betting Buffalo +1.5 at home is the move

I'm probably gonna, you know, I'm inevitably gonna bet Buffalo. Just do it. Blood oath. We're gonna bet Buffalo.

The Bills beat the Ravens 27-25 in the Divisional Round on January 19, 2025. Chris Long's Buffalo bet paid off.

Adam Schefter joined the program to clarify the coaching carousel chaos. He confirmed that both Kellen Moore and Deion Sanders are very much in the mix for the Cowboys job. He also shut down any rumors of Ben Johnson staying in Detroit for another year as a coordinator.

Win
Jan 17, 2025
#12190
Adam SchefterAdam Schefter

Ben Johnson is definitely taking a head coaching job this year

I don't see it this year. I don't see it. Ben Johnson has turned down two years of opportunities... at some point you have to take the plunge. The money is too great, the opportunities are too great... I believe he's taking a head coaching job this year.

Adam Schefter correctly predicted Ben Johnson would take a head coaching job. Johnson was hired by the Chicago Bears on January 21, 2025.

Schefter also addressed the constant complaints about playoff seeding, making it clear that the NFL has no interest in punishing teams for winning their division, even if a wild card team has a better record.

Win
Jan 17, 2025
#26501
Adam SchefterAdam Schefter

The NFL has no intention or momentum to change the playoff seeding rules that allow division winners to host games.

The league is intent upon rewarding division winners. I don't see that changing anytime soon. I've never heard any momentum or movement to change the way the playoff seeding system works.

Schefter is reporting on current league sentiment and momentum; unless a rule change occurs in the next league meeting, he is correct.

We wrapped things up with Fyre Fest of the week, including Hank having to defend his heterosexuality to the entire office and Big Cat preparing for a weekend of solo parenting during the biggest games of the year.

Good luck to the Commanders, and may the Lions' buttholes stay loose.

nfl-playoffsdivisional-rounddallas-cowboysdeion-sanderslionsbillschiefs

More Takes

Loss
Jan 17, 2025
#26495
MemesMemes

The Jets will inevitably make the wrong choice for their next head coach even if the right candidate is obvious.

There was a report that Aaron Glenn [wants the Jets]. That's good. Jets fans want Aaron Glenn. Which means we're gonna make the wrong choice.

Memes (a Jets fan) predicted the Jets would make the wrong coaching choice even though Aaron Glenn wanted the job and fans wanted him. The Jets actually hired Aaron Glenn as head coach on January 22, 2025 — the candidate fans wanted. The Jets made what was considered the right choice.
Push
Jan 17, 2025
#12186
Chris LongChris Long

The path for the Texans to stay close is containing Patrick Mahomes' scrambles

The path is if they can take care of the Mahomes scrambles, which they didn't in that first game that killed 'em. They can keep it closer.

If Houston stayed close by limiting scrambles, this is correct. However, the Chiefs won 24-17 in reality.
Void
Jan 17, 2025
#26498
Chris LongChris Long

To beat the Detroit Lions, you have to match their aggression and go for it on every fourth down.

To beat the Detroit Lions, you have to be the Detroit Lions. Right. So, you gotta go for it every fourth down... the tone of a possession where an offense has four downs is uneasy for a defense.

This is a tactical philosophy that can be evaluated based on how opponents succeed or fail against Detroit in the playoffs.
Void
Jan 17, 2025
#26499
Chris LongChris Long

Sean Payton is one of the greatest coaches in NFL history and remains elite due to his situational intelligence.

I think Sean Payton's one of the greatest coaches to ever coach in my opinion. He's so ball smart. He got all those situational nuggets from [his mentors] and then he puts his very physical caveman edge on it.

This is a subjective historical ranking of a coach's legacy.
Open
Jan 17, 2025
#26500
Chris LongChris Long

Khalil Shakir is the Bills' true number one receiver and their most important weapon on the outside.

I think their number one is Khalil Shakir. I think he's the most important guy. He's awesome. He is awesome... it's about outside the numbers [with him].

Shakir's performance and target share in the playoffs will validate whether he truly functions as the Bills' primary option.
Loss
Jan 17, 2025
#12189
Adam SchefterAdam Schefter

Kellen Moore and Dion Sanders are square in contention for the Cowboys job

Kellen Moore is a logical name because he fits there... Dion Sanders, if that's the way Jerry wants to go, square in contention. I would just say Kellen Moore square in contention, Dion Sanders, if that's the way Jerry wants to go, square in contention.

Neither Kellen Moore nor Deion Sanders was hired as Cowboys head coach. The Cowboys hired Brian Schottenheimer, their offensive coordinator, on January 24, 2025.

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