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Mike Florio, College Football Playoffs, Week 18 Picks And Preview And Fyre Fest of The Week

Friday, January 3, 202521 takes

The SEC is dead and all the bye teams lost. Arizona State almost pulled off an all time upset, Ohio State played the perfect half of football, and Notre Dame and Penn State are matched up (-). Week 18 Picks and Preview, we talk incentives, should the Eagles be worried about Jalen Hurts concussion, Vikings and Lions to end the season and more (-). TD Parlay and fantasy fuccbois (-). Mike Florio joins us to talk football, coach openings, whats going to happen with Aaron Rodgers and more (-). We finish with Fyre Fest of the week (-).

Mike Florio on NFL Black Monday, Rodgers to Pittsburgh, and CFP Chaos

The SEC is dead, the bye week is a curse, and college football might actually be back. Big Cat and PFT opened the show reeling from a quarterfinal slate that saw the giants of the SEC fall and the teams with rest looking like they spent their weeks off on a beach rather than in the film room.

Void
Jan 3, 2025
#2433
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The SEC is dead and the effectiveness of first-round byes is over in the CFP

The SEC is dead. So is byes. Byes are dead. Byes are dead. Byes are dead. The rest versus rust has been settled. The SEC is dead.

While SEC teams were eliminated early, claiming the conference is 'dead' is a subjective hyperbole.

Texas and Arizona State gave us an absolute classic that included Skattebo puking his guts out on the sideline before putting the team on his back. Meanwhile, Ohio State looked like a juggernaut in the Rose Bowl, even if Big Cat remains skeptical of their ability to finish the job if a certain rival from Ann Arbor is anywhere in the vicinity.

Loss
Jan 3, 2025
#2435
Big CatBig Cat

Ohio State is the best team in the country as long as they don't have to play Michigan

Ohio State is just a team on a mission right now. I don't know what else you can say. Like they are, as long as they don't have to play Michigan, they are the best team in the country.

Ohio State reached the national championship game but lost to Penn State, as noted in later discussions of their results.

The guys also broke down the heartbreaking end for Boise State and the confusing mess that is the targeting rule. PFT remains convinced that the rule exists purely for referee drama, while Big Cat felt for Ashton Jeanty as Boise seemed more concerned with stat-padding than actually covering the spread for the people.

Void
Jan 3, 2025
#20950
Big CatBig Cat

Boise State's lack of urgency at the end of the Penn State game was sad

The end of the game was a little sad by Boise State where they were just trying to get him [Ashton Jeanty] the record instead. I know they were down 17 and there's probably no chance, but running on first down with two and a half minutes left was a little sad. They had no urgency to try to cover the spread.

Subjective opinion on coaching strategy and team priorities.

Week 18 Picks and the 2018 Renaissance

Looking ahead to the NFL's final regular-season weekend, Big Cat pointed out the sheer insanity of the 2018 draft class. Between Baker Mayfield, Saquon Barkley, and Sam Darnold, the guys who were once considered busts are now the pillars of playoff contenders.

Win
Jan 3, 2025·Picks
#20952
Big CatBig Cat

The 2018 NFL Draft was one of the most insane classes ever for quarterbacks

2018 draft was insane. It's the year for everyone in the 2018. Baker Mayfield went one, Saquon Barkley two, Sam Darnold three. So 1, 2, 3 pretty much had career years. Eight out of the ten first picks in the 2018 draft have been to at least one Pro Bowl. Pretty good.

The stats regarding Pro Bowl selections for that top 10 are factually correct.

Speaking of history, Big Cat wants everyone to put some respect on Dan Marino's name. As Joe Burrow chases 5,000 yards, it's a reminder that Marino did it in an era where you could practically tackle a receiver before the ball arrived.

Win
Jan 3, 2025·Picks
#20953
Big CatBig Cat

Dan Marino's 1984 season is an anomaly that deserves more respect

Dan Marino having 5,084 yards and 48 touchdowns in 1984 when the game was not a passing game is fucking insane. That's an insane statistical feat. Joe Burrow's having a career year and he still needs to do some work to get to what Dan Marino did. It's like more respect on Dan Marino.

The stats quoted for Marino's 1984 season are accurate and the comparison to modern passing volume is a widely accepted football analysis.

For the Bears, the vibes are at an all-time low. Big Cat is already bracing for a loss to the Packers to cap off a winless road season, and he's terrified that the organization will pass over a brilliant offensive mind like Ben Johnson for a defensive coach who might alienate Caleb Williams.

Void
Jan 3, 2025·Picks
#2437
Big CatBig Cat

I would rather have Mike McCarthy as my head coach than Brian Flores

I'd much rather have if given a choice, Mike McCarthy over Brian Flores... I think Brian Flores could be a very good head coach with a well established quarterback in place... I just don't want a defensive coach and I don't, I want Ben Johnson.

Mike Florio on the Coaching Carousel

Mike Florio joined the show to provide some adult supervision and insight into the upcoming Black Monday. The biggest topic was the Minnesota Vikings and the Sam Darnold conundrum. Florio was adamant that even with a high-profile rookie waiting in the wings, the Vikings cannot afford to let their current starter walk.

Loss
Jan 3, 2025
#2440
Mike FlorioMike Florio

The Vikings can't let Sam Darnold leave the building

You can't let this guy leave. Everybody's looking for a franchise quarterback. When you have a guy who's playing like a franchise quarterback, you can't let him leave. They can figure out whatever they're gonna do with JJ McCarthy... but you can't let him go when he's gotten as good as he's gotten.

The Vikings did let Sam Darnold leave. They did not franchise tag him, and he signed a 3-year, $100.5M deal with the Seattle Seahawks in free agency. Despite Florio's insistence they couldn't let him go, the Vikings chose JJ McCarthy.

Florio also touched on the "palace intrigue" in Chicago and the potential for a coaching shakeup in New York. He believes Mike Vrabel is the ultimate fix for the New York media market, while Aaron Rodgers might be looking for a way out of the Jets that doesn't involve him being the one to pull the trigger.

Win
Jan 3, 2025
#2449
Mike FlorioMike Florio

Aaron Rodgers wants the Jets to break up with him, not the other way around

I think Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to come back to the Jets, but he wants them to be the ones that break up with him. He's been needling Woody Johnson... I think he wants them to end it. And then he'll see if anyone out there really wants him.

Aaron Rodgers wanted the Jets to break up with him, and that's exactly what happened. The Jets informed Rodgers they were moving in a different direction and released him. He then signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

One of the most intriguing landing spots for Rodgers? The Steel City. Florio thinks the veteran-quarterback-plug-and-play model in Pittsburgh fits Rodgers' current career trajectory perfectly.

Win
Jan 3, 2025
#2451
Mike FlorioMike Florio

Aaron Rodgers to the Steelers is a fascinating possibility

I'm fascinated by the possibility of him going to Pittsburgh. Remember that video of him and Mike Tomlin kinda making googly eyes at each other... I feel like that tracks with what the Steelers are currently doing at quarterback, which is, we don't know how to develop one. Let's just go find a veteran and plug him in.

Aaron Rodgers did sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers on a one-year, $13.6 million contract, confirming this prediction.

Fantasy Fuccbois and Jumper January

The show wrapped up with a very cozy edition of Fantasy Fuccbois as the guys officially ushered in Jumper January. Hank is down to his last few velour jumpsuits after his move to Chicago, while PFT is rocking a one-piece that makes bathroom breaks a high-stakes operation.

We finished with Fyre Fest of the week where Max defended his decision to ride a bike with a broken foot and Big Cat lamented the struggle of a Great Wolf Lodge "vacation" with three kids.

Good luck to everyone trying to win their performance incentives this weekend, especially Gino Smith who is one good half away from a massive payday.

Push
Jan 3, 2025·Picks
#20955
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Geno Smith will make $6 million in performance incentives on Sunday

Geno Smith could make $6 million on Sunday. He gets 2 million bucks if the Seahawks finish with a 10th win. He gets 2 million if he gets 4,282 yards—he's 185 away—and he also gets 2 million bucks if he finishes with a completion percentage better than 69.75. Right now he's at 70.23.

Geno Smith reached the yardage and completion percentage marks but the Seahawks lost the game, meaning he likely didn't collect the full $6M but did get a portion.

Don't forget to buy Mike Florio's ebook for 99 cents so he stops yelling at us for not reading.

nflcollege-football-playoffaaron-rodgersweek-18-pickschicago-bearsminnesota-vikings

More Takes

Void
Jan 3, 2025
#20949
Big CatBig Cat

College football is back following an incredible slate of quarterfinal games

Texas-Arizona State was an instant classic. Notre Dame-Georgia had some good drama. College football might be back.

This is a subjective assessment of the entertainment value of a sports season.
Void
Jan 3, 2025
#20951
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The targeting rule was created solely for referees to impact games

I feel like the rule was created so that the refs have an opportunity to impact a game one way or the other. Where if you want it to be targeting, you can say, 'okay, that's targeting, this guy's ejected.' If you don't want it to be, then you can say no. And everyone's like, 'well, okay. I guess I don't know what targeting is.'

This is a cynical interpretation of the rule's purpose that cannot be factually proven or disproven.
Void
Jan 3, 2025
#2434
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Kickers are mental midgets and need to be afraid of their head coach to succeed

Kickers are mental midgets. Can we say that? Mental. You need to have the, oh shit, I'm probably gonna get killed by my head coach if I don't make this kick. And Sark was just like doing the I love you man... His hair... I got a lot of people saying the hair's too much for a kicker. I don't disagree. You don't wanna stand out at all if you're a kicker.

Win
Jan 3, 2025
#2436
MaxMax

I like Penn State's chances as underdogs against Notre Dame in the semifinals

I like Penn State's chances. I like that they're dogs. I like that they're dogs in this game. As of right now, they're one and a half point dogs. Opened as dogs. It'll be a good game.

Penn State defeated Notre Dame to advance to the National Championship.
Win
Jan 3, 2025·Picks
#20954
Big CatBig Cat

The Bears will not win a road game on a Sunday this season

The Bears haven't won a road game on a Sunday since 2021... 20 Sunday road games in a row. We're not gonna beat the Packers. Packers are going to embarrass us, they're gonna laugh at us.

The Bears lost to the Packers 17-9 in Week 18, finishing the season without a Sunday road win.
Void
Jan 3, 2025·Picks
#2438
Big CatBig Cat

George Kittle is a first-ballot Hall of Famer

George Kittle should be in Canton. He is the fourth tight end all time to have four 1,000 yard seasons... George Kittle should be in a gold jacket. We'll start working on a PowerPoint. But he's an absolute monster.

Loss
Jan 3, 2025
#2442
Mike FlorioMike Florio

The Vikings might consider trading JJ McCarthy if Sam Darnold is the guy

I think all options will be on the table if and when they decide Sam Darnold is the guy... if there's a team out there that's willing to make the Vikings an offer that they won't refuse, then you do it... I think the Vikings get a hell of a lot more for JJ McCarthy than the 49ers got for Trey Lance.

The Vikings did not trade JJ McCarthy. Sam Darnold left via free agency to Seattle, and the Vikings kept McCarthy as their quarterback of the future.
Win
Jan 3, 2025
#2444
Mike FlorioMike Florio

Tom Brady having a vote on NFL awards while being an owner is a conflict of interest

The idea that any owner of an NFL team would have a vote on league-wide awards, it's preposterous... It's an inherent conflict of interest. And I think after the season, the AP will find a way to clean it up. I think it just fell through the cracks.

The AP ultimately did move to restrict ownership and team employees from voting on awards following the 2024 season.
Loss
Jan 3, 2025
#2446
Mike FlorioMike Florio

Mike Vrabel would be the perfect fit for a New York NFL team

Rebel's [Vrabel] got the right personality to deal with the New York fans and the New York media. It's almost like Parcells where he just doesn't fuck around... he could be abrasive in a charming way... both of those teams need to be considering very seriously trying to make a run at Vrabel.

Mike Vrabel was not hired by a New York NFL team. He was hired by the New England Patriots. The Jets hired Aaron Glenn and the Giants retained Brian Daboll (before firing him in November 2025).
Win
Jan 3, 2025
#20956
Big CatBig Cat

The Chiefs are guaranteed to make the AFC Championship game

I'll say right now they're [Chiefs] in the AFC championship game. It's gonna be very hard to go into Arrowhead Stadium and win... Mahomes' floor is losing in overtime of the AFC championship. That's his floor.

The Chiefs made the AFC Championship game in the 2024 season, defeating the Texans in the Divisional Round and then the Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship before losing Super Bowl LIX to the Eagles.
Push
Jan 3, 2025
#2453
Mike FlorioMike Florio

Kirk Cousins might be done as a starting NFL quarterback

Look at Cousins. He's gotta like muster every ounce of energy in his body... his body eventually rebelled against him this year because he was compensating for the torn achilles tendon... I've talked to people who said, you know what? There's a chance it just never comes back for him. He could be done.

Cousins was benched for Michael Penix Jr. in Atlanta, but after Penix's ACL tear in Week 11, Cousins returned and went 5-3 as starter. The Falcons are releasing him in March 2026. He may be done as a starter, but he proved he could still play when called upon.

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