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Former NFL OL Geoff Schwartz And CFB Expert Tom Fornelli

Wednesday, December 27, 201727 takes

NFL Week 16 Recap and NFL Week 17 preview amidst our Christmas week food hangovers. Should America be allowed to kick the Titans out of the playoffs? Coach Firing season and we throw out the dark horse coaches to be fired(-). Hot Seat/Cool Throne including an explanation of Cardi B and Offset breaking up then making up(-). Former NFL O-Lineman Geoff Schwartz joins the show to talk about his playing career in the NFL and our new segment "Flaw and Order" where we break down the flaws of all the Super Bowl Contenders.(-) CBS Sports College Football Expert Tom Fornelli joins the show to talk about the College Football Playoffs and why a motivated Nick Saban is the scariest thing in the entire world.(-) Perspective with Lebron James (-), NBA Torch passing update,(-) Mike Greenberg's Dumb Rules fixing NFL Replay(-) and Guys on Chicks(-).

Geoff Schwartz and Tom Fornelli on NFL Playoff Flaws and Bowl Season Picks

Big Cat and PFT Commenter are currently suffering through the post-Christmas food hangover, fueled by a dangerous mixture of soup, cookies, and crouton-sized pieces of pie. Despite the sugar-induced sluggishness, the football world doesn't stop. Week 16 is in the books, and while Jimmy Garoppolo is busy sizing himself up for a Gold Jacket, Big Cat is preoccupied with the sheer audacity of the NFL's holiday scheduling.

Void
Dec 27, 2017
#10506
Big CatBig Cat

The NFL playing games on Christmas Day was bullshit

I think it was actually bullshit that the NFL played on Christmas Day. No, that's an NBA day. It felt so weird. The Steelers and Texans game, that felt like the first Saturday wild card game that no one really wanted to watch. I just felt like it was a little too much. They should have just kept it to Saturday and Sunday.

As the playoff picture clarifies, the conversation shifts to the teams we actually want to see in January. Big Cat is leading a national movement to protect the integrity of our televisions by keeping a certain AFC South team out of the postseason.

Loss
Dec 27, 2017
#10508
Big CatBig Cat

The Titans should not be allowed to make the playoffs because they are boring

I think as a country we need to have a vote and make it so the Titans cannot make the playoffs. Fuck the Titans. I don't want to see the Titans in the playoffs. No one wants to see the Titans. Just think about this. Would you rather see the boring-ass, shitty-ass Titans losing the first round or Bills fans go crazy because they clinched their first playoff berth in like a billion years.

The Titans did make the playoffs and actually won a Wild Card game against the Chiefs.

While the Titans are getting the cold shoulder, the Ravens and Panthers are trending up. PFT is all-in on the defense in Carolina, believing they have the juice to actually lift a trophy in February.

Loss
Dec 27, 2017
#10509
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Panthers' defense is good enough to win a championship

It's actually the Panthers that are my make some noise team out of the NFC. I think that the Panthers' defense is good enough to win a championship. I think that they're really fucking good right now.

The Panthers lost to the Saints 31-26 in the Wild Card round, though their defense was ranked top 10 that year.

Flaw and Order with Geoff Schwartz

Former NFL offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz joined the show to break down the specific weaknesses of every Super Bowl contender in a segment called "Flaw and Order." Geoff isn't buying the hype on certain units, specifically pointing out that the Patriots' defensive statistics might be a bit of a mirage.

Win
Dec 27, 2017
#10517
Geoff SchwartzGeoff Schwartz

The Patriots' defense is a problem because they can't rush the passer consistently

I think their defense is still a problem. They're 31st in yards per play on defense. This is not good enough. And they're going to run into a game where they have to stop a team and can they do it? I just think it's not consistent pass rush. It's every now and then, and I think you need to have more of a consistent pass rush to contend in the playoffs.

The Patriots defense famously failed to stop the Eagles in Super Bowl LII, allowing over 500 yards of offense.

Geoff also provided a unique perspective on the Seahawks' offensive line struggles, noting that the experiment of turning defensive players into blockers is a relic of the past that simply doesn't work with modern practice limitations.

Win
Dec 27, 2017
#23490
Geoff SchwartzGeoff Schwartz

Converting defensive linemen to offensive linemen does not work in the modern NFL

This idea of drafting guys with a high upside that can grow into your system or drafting a defensive lineman [to convert to OL] doesn't work. You don't have the practice time anymore to mold these offensive linemen. You need to draft guys out of college from, like, the same six schools, Wisconsin, Iowa, USC, Notre Dame, just draft them from these schools that are ready to play.

The Seahawks' line struggled significantly during this era, and they eventually moved on from Cable and his philosophy.

Beyond the trenches, Big Cat decided to plant his flag on the hill of Case Keenum. While most see a career backup having a nice run, Big Cat sees a future legend in the making.

Loss
Dec 27, 2017
#10518
Big CatBig Cat

Case Keenum is the next Kurt Warner and will eventually be a Hall of Famer

Case Keenum is like Kurt Warner in 1999 when everyone was like, come on, Kurt Warner, the backup, this guy, he's no one. Case Keenum is going to end up being a Hall of Famer. I'm squatting on that one. Because I've been saying all year, like, are we really doing this with Case Keenum? And we still are doing it. And he just keeps on rolling and rolling.

Keenum's 2017 was a career outlier; he never reached those heights again and is certainly not tracking for the Hall of Fame.

Tom Fornelli’s Bowl Season Blueprint

With the College Football Playoff looming, CBS Sports expert Tom Fornelli stopped by to help us navigate the betting board. Tom’s strategy is simple: look for the underdogs when the public gets too loud.

Void
Dec 27, 2017
#23491
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Fading the public in bowl season is more profitable than in the regular season

I feel like fading the public in bowl season is much more profitable than it would be during the regular season, which means that what you tend to see is a lot of people betting favorites, a lot of people betting over. Personally, I start off looking at an underdog, and then I have to convince myself why that underdog doesn't actually have a chance to cover.

This is a subjective betting strategy, though mathematically verified by many sharp bettors during high-volume periods.

When it comes to the actual playoff matchups, Tom is wary of the Georgia Bulldogs' lack of experience on this specific stage. He believes the sheer offensive dominance of Baker Mayfield gives Oklahoma the edge in the Rose Bowl.

Loss
Dec 27, 2017
#23495
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Oklahoma and Baker Mayfield have the edge over Georgia in the Rose Bowl

The closer I look at it, the more I just really think that I can't go against Baker Mayfield in a game like this and against that Oklahoma offense, which has just been absolutely superb all year long... I just feel like when you get to a playoff, if you have a unit like Oklahoma's offense, which is just that much better than everybody else that's there, that gives it something of an edge.

Georgia won a classic in double overtime, 54-48.

However, the ultimate winner usually comes down to the guy wearing the straw hat in Tuscaloosa. Tom warns that a motivated Nick Saban with a chip on his shoulder is the most dangerous entity in the sport.

Push
Dec 27, 2017
#23494
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Alabama will beat Clemson by 10-14 points in the Sugar Bowl

I'm looking at this where I think Alabama's probably going to win this one, and I really don't know if it's going to be close. I think this could be like a 10-14 point win for Alabama. Hot take Fornelli. It's never really in question.

Alabama won 24-6, an 18-point victory.

Hot Seat, Cool Throne, and Dr. Guerrero

Hot Seat/Cool Throne covered the essential news, including James Harrison’s move to New England. PFT has a theory that this isn't just a veteran signing, but a calculated tactical strike by Mike Tomlin.

Loss
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

James Harrison is a double agent sent by the Steelers to infiltrate the Patriots

I almost think that he's a double agent, that the Steelers sent him in there... To give fake play calls... James Harrison was saying he was so pissed off at Mike Tomlin... It's like that episode of Homeland where Carrie testified that she hated the CIA and then she went to a mental institution.

Harrison played for the Patriots in the Super Bowl that year and did not act as a double agent.

Big Cat placed people who want to debate *Die Hard's* status as a Christmas movie on the Hot Seat, mostly because the discourse has become more exhausting than the movie is entertaining.

Void
Big CatBig Cat

Debating whether Die Hard is a Christmas movie is the worst argument on Twitter

My other hot seat is people who want to debate Die Hard being a Christmas movie because I do not give a fuck. That actually might be the worst Twitter argument that goes on now. Is Die Hard a Christmas movie? That was like five years ago and it wasn't interesting then and it's still even more uninteresting now.

We also got an update from our new producer Liam, who explained the complex interpersonal dynamics of Cardi B and Offset's Instagram Live reconciliations. It’s a brave new world, and if we can solve NFL replay using pickup basketball logic, we might just survive until 2018.

Void
Big CatBig Cat

NFL replay should be fixed using a 'possession arrow' system from pickup basketball

I think they should just go to a straight pick up hoops thing where no one knows who hit the ball out, so it's like we get the next one. But any, like, controversial call, it's like, all right, you get it this time, we'll get it next time. That's good. I like that. Just keep trading it all year long.

If you're staying in this New Year's Eve to make out with your dog, just remember that a dog's mouth is technically cleaner than a human's.

nfl-playoffscollege-football-playoffalabamabrownstitansjimmy-garoppolo

More Takes

Loss
Dec 27, 2017
#10507
Big CatBig Cat

The 49ers will be everyone's trendy playoff pick for next season

The 49ers are going to be our Regis Philbin team next year. The Regis Philbin Dark Horse of the Year, where Regis even picks a team as the Dark Horse, that means they're no longer a Dark Horse. Every single person in the world is going to pick the 49ers to go to the playoffs next year.

The 49ers were a trendy pick, but they finished 4-12 in the 2018 season, failing to meet the playoff prediction.
Loss
Dec 27, 2017
#23486
Big CatBig Cat

The Ravens are going to make some noise in the AFC

The Ravens, I think, are going to make some noise. Don't look now. The Ravens, they started to wear their black uniforms, and when they put the black unis on in November and December, they win a primetime game or two.

The Ravens missed the playoffs entirely after losing to the Bengals in the final seconds of Week 17.
Void
Dec 27, 2017
#10510
Big CatBig Cat

If the Colts don't hire Bruce Arians immediately, they are the dumbest organization ever

Bruce Arians, I think, is going to walk away. And if the Colts don't fucking hire him immediately, they're the dumbest organization ever. Because, like, why wouldn't you fire Chuck Pagano and bring in the guy who actually was a good coach for your team?

The Colts hired Frank Reich instead (after the McDaniels debacle). Reich was successful, and Arians stayed retired for a year, so calling them 'dumb' for not hiring him is subjective but didn't happen.
Win
Dec 27, 2017
#10511
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Bruce Arians will retire for a year and then come back to coaching

I think that Bruce is the kind of guy that he's in Arizona... He's going to walk away, he's going to play like a year of golf, and he's just going to be miserable the entire time... So I think Bruce is actually going to be away from the game for a year and then come back.

Arians retired at the end of 2017 and returned in 2019 to coach the Buccaneers.
Loss
Dec 27, 2017
#10512
Big CatBig Cat

Pete Carroll might walk away from the Seahawks if they miss the playoffs

If they don't make the playoffs, I can see Pete Carroll being like, we're just going to walk away from each other... basically everyone on the Seahawks hates each other, which is not new, but it feels like Earl Thomas is trying to go to the Cowboys.

Carroll coached the Seahawks until the end of the 2023 season.
Loss
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Giving Sean McVay credit for the Rams is like giving 311 credit for inventing reggae; it's Jeff Fisher's squad

Giving Sean McVay credit for this team is like giving 311 credit for inventing reggae. This is Jeff Fisher's squad. This is his team. He invented this team.

McVay completely transformed the offense from a bottom-tier unit to the league's best in one year, proving it was not just 'Fisher's squad.'
Win
Dec 27, 2017
#10516
Geoff SchwartzGeoff Schwartz

Chip Kelly won't be as successful in his return to college because his system is no longer unique

Chip's going to... coaching in college football again. You think he's going to be just as good as he was the second time around? Probably not. Think about it. Everyone now runs what we ran in college. We were the first team to do this up-tempo, spread offense... Now everybody does it... So he is not going to be coming into a situation with a brand-new concept.

Chip Kelly went 35-34 at UCLA, never reaching the heights he achieved at Oregon.
Push
Dec 27, 2017
#23487
Geoff SchwartzGeoff Schwartz

Eli Manning has plenty left in the tank if he gets an offense that suits him

He [Eli Manning] still has a lot left. Too many injuries, terrible offensive line, especially the tackle position... I think you give him a chance with a full new offense, new offensive line. They have weapons on the outside. He's a very specific type of quarterback.

Eli played two more seasons, but the Giants continued to struggle and he was eventually replaced by Daniel Jones as his performance declined.
Void
Dec 27, 2017
#23488
Geoff SchwartzGeoff Schwartz

The Saints' biggest weakness heading into the playoffs is their lack of downfield passing

So this is odd about the Saints, but really it seems like their weakness is kind of throwing the ball downfield now. They don't really do that anymore... They just don't push the ball downfield anymore. Maybe they don't have to because of the running back situation. But they have a ton of explosive plays. They're just not the ball's not thrown deep downfield anymore.

This was a valid observation of Brees' declining arm strength and the team's shift to Kamara/Ingram-led production.
Win
Dec 27, 2017
#23489
Geoff SchwartzGeoff Schwartz

The Rams' biggest weakness is their lack of postseason experience

I guess the Rams to me would just be – haven't done it yet. Like, they haven't done it yet. Jared Goff hasn't had that opportunity... I think for them, it's just experience. Like, I just – they haven't had the chance to be together as this team with a second-year quarterback and do it all.

The young Rams lost their home playoff game to the more experienced Falcons in the Wild Card round.
Win
Dec 27, 2017
#10519
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Josh Rosen is too smart to play for the Cleveland Browns

Between him leaking out that he doesn't want to play for the Browns and between his answer about why he's sitting out and why some players do sit out, I feel like he's way too smart to end up in Cleveland.

The Browns passed on Rosen and took Baker Mayfield. Rosen went to the Cardinals and struggled significantly.
Loss
Dec 27, 2017
#23492
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

USC will cover the 7.5-point spread against Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl

I definitely like the Trojans to cover. It's a seven-and-a-half point spread right now, which between these two teams is just ridiculously large to me. I don't see how anybody looks at what Ohio State's done this year and what USC's done this year... and says that Ohio State's more than a touchdown better than the Trojans.

Ohio State won 24-7, covering the 7.5-point spread.
Win
Dec 27, 2017
#23493
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

The under is the best bet for the LSU vs. Notre Dame Citrus Bowl

I like the under in that game more than anything, although I do think Notre Dame's going to win... I like the under more than anything, just because I think it's going to be kind of a rock fight more than most.

The final score was 21-17, staying well under the 51.5 total.
Win
Dec 27, 2017
#10520
Tom FornelliTom Fornelli

Alabama will win the National Championship

My heart wants to say Oklahoma, but my head says Alabama, just because, like I've said, I think Alabama's the best team in the country... I just don't think anybody's beating Alabama this year... I think they're going to finish as national title champions once again.

Alabama defeated Georgia in the championship game.
Void
Dec 27, 2017
#10521
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Kevin Durant has officially eclipsed LeBron James as the best player on the planet (according to Skip Bayless)

He [Skip Bayless] says that Kevin Durant has now eclipsed LeBron as the best player on the planet, and Fox News tweeted out the torch has been passed... Officailly KD is the torchbearer, according to Skip Bayless.

This is a recurring satirical bit about sports media narratives, specifically Skip Bayless's obsession with LeBron vs KD.

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