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Former VP Of The Spurs Kirk Goldsberry, Game 2 Rockets/Warriors, And Guys On Chicks

Wednesday, May 1, 201920 takes

NBA Playoffs are officially on and we taped after the late game to recap Warriors/Rockets Game 2, the Bucks flexing their muscles, the arrival of James Butler, and Nuggets talk for our friends out in 'Rado ( - ). NHL Playoffs and Hot Seat/Cool Throne including our beloved pile of junk in the office ( - ). Former VP of Strategic Research for the Spurs and Author of Sprawlball Kirk Goldsberry joins the show to talk about analytics in basektball, how teams are using the 3 point line, how it can be fixed, and who will win the 2019 title ( - ). Segments include Sheesh update Lebron, Sabermetrics the Rockets complained, Respect The Biz Mike Francesa, and Urban Development (Urban Meyer's new job) + Guys on Chicks

Kirk Goldsberry on NBA Analytics, Rockets vs. Warriors, and the End of the Pile

We have officially entered May, which means we sleep in May and the NBA playoffs are in full swing. Big Cat and PFT taped this one at 1 a.m. following a wild Game 2 between the Rockets and Warriors that featured James Harden looking like he spent the weekend in Sochi with Bob Costas after getting poked in the eye. While the Warriors took a 2-0 lead, Big Cat isn't ready to call it a wrap for Houston just yet.

Win
May 1, 2019
#15407
Big CatBig Cat

The Rockets will win at least one game in Houston against the Warriors

Are we thinking sweep? No. No. No chance. They're going to take at least one. I just wanted to throw it out there. At least one in Houston.

The Rockets won Games 3 and 4 in Houston during the Western Conference Semifinals.

Speaking of the Warriors, Draymond Green is back to his usual self, which means he is actively accumulating technical fouls like they're frequent flyer miles. PFT is already checking the calendar for the inevitable.

Loss
May 1, 2019
#15406
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Draymond Green will eventually earn a one-game suspension during these playoffs

Draymond [Green] got another technical tonight. So he's on his way to earning a one-game suspension at some point during these playoffs.

Green finished the 2019 playoffs with 6 technicals, avoiding the 7-technical threshold that triggers a mandatory one-game suspension.

The Bucks are Monsters

Hank’s Celtics stole one in Milwaukee, but the Bucks responded in Game 2 by jacking up 47 threes and letting Giannis do Giannis things. PFT is officially terrified of what’s happening in the Cream City, declaring the Bucks the undisputed kings of the East.

Loss
May 1, 2019
#15409
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Bucks are unbeatable and will dominate the Eastern Conference

But as I've said, these Bucks are unbeatable in this playoff. They are going to dominate the East. Clearly the best team.

The Bucks held a 2-0 lead in the ECF but lost four straight games to the Toronto Raptors, failing to reach the Finals.

While Giannis was busy Euro-stepping from half-court, Kyrie Irving had a night to forget. Hank isn't sweating it, though, banking on the law of averages for the rest of the series.

Loss
May 1, 2019
#15408
HankHank

Kyrie Irving will not play as poorly for the rest of the Bucks series as he did in Game 2

Kyrie [Irving] will not play that bad for the rest of the series. I'm okay with that because that means, I mean, it's not like you don't have a shitty...

Kyrie actually continued to play poorly, shooting 8-22, 7-22, and 6-21 in the following three games as the Celtics were eliminated 4-1.

Kirk Goldsberry and Sprawlball

Former Spurs VP of Strategic Research and Harvard professor Kirk Goldsberry joined the show to discuss his new book, *Sprawlball*. He’s essentially the climate change guy for the NBA, warning us that the mid-range jumper is a melting glacier. Kirk broke down how rule changes in 2004 fundamentally altered how the game is played.

Win
May 1, 2019
#25807
Kirk GoldsberryKirk Goldsberry

The NBA essentially made defense illegal in 2004 by outlawing hand-checking

In 2004, after the Pistons beat Kobe and the Lakers, what does the NBA do? They make defense illegal, essentially, by outlawing hand-checking and defense of three seconds.

The 2004 rule changes specifically targeted perimeter hand-checking to increase scoring, which directly led to the rise of offensive efficiency.

We also got into the polarizing style of the Houston Rockets. While fans hate the constant whistling and isolation, Kirk pointed out that James Harden is simply the logical conclusion of every math geek's dream.

Win
May 1, 2019
#25808
Kirk GoldsberryKirk Goldsberry

James Harden is the most analytically correct basketball player in history

[James Harden] deserves a lot of credit for being the most analytically correct player our league has ever seen... The shots he takes are the right ones. The shots he doesn't take are the wrong ones.

Harden's shot chart during his peak Rockets years was famous for having almost zero mid-range attempts, adhering strictly to 'Moreyball' principles.

To save the game from becoming a 3-point contest, Kirk offered some radical "stoner ideas" to fix the geometry of the court, including making the lines different in every arena or letting big men swat balls away from the rim.

Loss
May 1, 2019
#15412
Kirk GoldsberryKirk Goldsberry

The NBA should allow defensive goaltending on three-pointers to decrease shooting efficiency

Allowing goaltending on threes is probably the biggest stoner ideas I have. Let's make it fun, dudes. Let's make it a little harder for these guys.

Goaltending remains illegal in the NBA for all field goal attempts.

Hot Seat/Cool Throne

The office "pile" is officially dead as the guys prepare to move to a new headquarters. Digging through it was like a Three Mile Island excavation, uncovering ancient relics like Skyline Chili, Jeff Fisher mustaches, and Jared Goff’s senior year calendar.

PFT also put the entire planet on the Hot Seat after NASA announced they are simulating an asteroid collision. While most people would be panicked, Big Cat sees the silver lining in a giant space rock ending it all.

Void
Big CatBig Cat

An asteroid hitting Earth would be a better way for humanity to end than climate change

Thinking about what the alternative is, is just cooking ourselves alive in the next 200 years. Asteroid, not that bad... I just want the asteroid to hit us. Boom, done.

This is an inherently subjective value judgment on methods of extinction.

Guys on Chicks and Urban Development

The show wrapped up with a new segment called Urban Development, tracking Urban Meyer’s three-step plan to inevitably end up at USC or Notre Dame. We also learned some disturbing hygiene habits during Guys on Chicks, where PFT revealed his minimalist approach to showering.

Void
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I don't wash anything below my neck in the shower

I don't wash anything below my neck.

This is a subjective lifestyle choice/opinion and cannot be verified for 'correctness' in a scientific sense.

Just remember, if you get hit in the balls, you have at least ten minutes of free sympathy time to milk, even if the pain subsides after two.

Don't forget to check out the Kentucky Derby preview on Friday.

nflnba-playoffshouston-rocketsgolden-state-warriorsanalyticsguys-on-chicks

More Takes

Void
May 1, 2019
#25803
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Warriors and Rockets would both easily beat the Celtics in a series

I think either team could beat the Celtics... any of the three teams, the Warriors, the Warriors, or the Rockets, I think match up very well against the Celtics.

The Warriors were far more talented than the 2019 Celtics, though this matchup never occurred as Boston lost in the second round.
Win
May 1, 2019
#25804
HankHank

Tuukka Rask is statistically one of the best goaltenders of all time

Statistically, [Tuukka Rask] one of the best goalies of all time.

Tuukka Rask retired with a career .921 save percentage, which ranks among the highest in NHL history.
Void
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The new Sonic the Hedgehog movie looks incredible and will be the movie event of the millennium

The Sonic the Hedgehog trailer was just released, and it looks incredible. It is going to be the movie event of the millennium, I'm very confident in saying.

The initial trailer was so poorly received that the studio delayed the movie to redesign the character, though the film ended up being a box office success.
Void
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

NBA arena decibel readers are fraudulent and inflated by 30 decibels

A lot of people have started to download their own decibel readers on their phones, going to games, comparing them against what the scoreboard's showing. And guess what? Turns out it's like 30 decibels quieter than they're showing.

While not a scientific study, many fans and tech reviewers have noted that arena decibel meters often use improper weighting or locations to produce higher numbers for entertainment.
Loss
May 1, 2019
#15411
Kirk GoldsberryKirk Goldsberry

Teams should be allowed to draw their own custom three-point lines on their home courts

Imagine if the Heat could draw their own line or the Warriors are playing at home, and they have one line. Then they go to Houston, and there's a different line... it gives a home field advantage. It's fun for the fans. So I think that would be interesting because right now, dudes, the shot is too easy for too many guys.

The NBA has not adopted variable court dimensions or custom 3-point lines.
Win
May 1, 2019
#25809
Big CatBig Cat

The 76ers roster is a collection of pieces that don't fit together at all

The Sixers have a shitload of pieces that don't fit. Nothing. I don't love the geometry of the Sixers as they assemble together.

This team famously lost in the second round and Jimmy Butler left in free agency that summer, proving the roster construction was flawed.
Loss
May 1, 2019
#15413
Kirk GoldsberryKirk Goldsberry

Ben Simmons will eventually become an average three-point shooter

[Ben Simmons] could use his clutch roommate LeBron as a model because LeBron was a terrible jump shooter his rookie year... Simmons could really pattern some of his pathway to efficiency after LeBron.

Ben Simmons' lack of shooting became his defining career trait, and he has never averaged more than 0.2 three-point attempts per game in a season.
Loss
May 1, 2019
#15414
Kirk GoldsberryKirk Goldsberry

The Warriors will win the 2019 NBA Finals

But the Warriors are going to win. I hate to say it. I'm rooting against them just for the narrative, as they say. But they are so good, you guys. The...

The Toronto Raptors defeated the Golden State Warriors 4-2 to win the 2019 NBA Finals.
Win
May 1, 2019
#25810
Kirk GoldsberryKirk Goldsberry

LeBron James is still salvageable if the Lakers surround him with shooters

LeBron [James] is definitely salvageable. They need shooters, man... You surround him the same way that Cleveland and Miami did. You don't have to reinvent the wheel here.

The Lakers traded for Anthony Davis and added shooters like Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope the next season, winning the 2020 NBA title.
Open
May 1, 2019
#15415
Kirk GoldsberryKirk Goldsberry

Zion Williamson is a bust-proof prospect

The best shots in the league are still near the rim, and he's going to be able to get there. He's a big boy, and he's athletic. He's a bust-proof, in my opinion.

Zion has been an All-Star and incredibly efficient, but his career has been plagued by injuries, preventing him from reaching 'bust-proof' status for many analysts.
Win
Big CatBig Cat

Urban Meyer is executing a multi-step plan to return to coaching

Urban Meyer is on step two of the Urban Meyer, I'm going to go get another job. plan... Step one: say you're leaving... Step two: do media and realize you hate it... Step three: go back to coaching.

Meyer took a job at Fox Sports in 2019 and then signed to coach the Jacksonville Jaguars in January 2021.

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