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NFL Preview, Game Breakdown With Warren Sharp + Paul Rabil And Our Lacrosse Team Ownership

Friday, January 10, 202017 takes

Divisional round is here but first Mike Leach is in the SEC ( - ). We talk about each game this weekend and welcome on Warren Sharp who gives us insight on how each team will be attacking their divisional round matchup ( - ). Paul Rabil joins the show and we discuss what our Lacrosse Team ownership entails, with some (possibly illegal) ideas on how we can make money off the Waterdogs ( - ). Segments include Fyre Fest, PR 101 for John Beilen and the Royal Family and FAQS

Warren Sharp and Paul Rabil on Divisional Round & Lacrosse Ownership

The Divisional Round is officially here, and the energy in the studio is peaking as Big Cat and PFT prepare for a trip to New Orleans for the National Championship. But before they hit Bourbon Street, there was some massive coaching news in the college ranks that they couldn't ignore. Mike Leach taking his air raid offense to Mississippi State is the kind of chaos the SEC was built for.

Win
Jan 10, 2020
#7327
Big CatBig Cat

Mike Leach in the SEC is a match made in heaven for entertainment

Mike Leach in the SEC, a match made in heaven. Maybe not from a football standpoint, from an entertainment standpoint. Lane Kiffin versus Mike Leach in the Egg Bowl. I hope it happens for 50 years.

The Leach/Kiffin era in Mississippi provided significant entertainment value and viral moments during their overlap from 2020-2022.

Big Cat thinks the Pirate is going to have a field day with the level of athletes he's about to inherit in Starkville.

Push
Jan 10, 2020
#7329
Big CatBig Cat

Mike Leach will have the best quality of players he has ever had at Mississippi State

it's going to work because what Mike Leach does better than any coach is he goes to programs that are not traditional powerhouses... and he wins with not the best recruiting classes. He actually will have probably his best recruit. He'll have his best quality of players at Mississippi State than he's had anywhere else.

While Mississippi State consistently out-recruited Washington State and Texas Tech during Leach's tenure (often top 30 vs top 50 classes), the gap wasn't as massive as expected given the SEC competition.

Sharp Analysis for the Divisional Round

Warren Sharp joined the show to provide some actual intelligent analysis to balance out the guys' vibes-based handicapping. While Big Cat is feeling invincible with his favorites-heavy parlay, Sharp dug into the specific personnel matchups that could define the weekend.

Loss
Jan 10, 2020·Picks
#7331
Big CatBig Cat

The 49ers, Ravens, and Chiefs money line parlay is a can't-lose bet

The 49ers, the Ravens, the Chiefs. Parlay them all, plus 105 on BetMGM, even money everywhere else... How does that lose? I don't see a way that it does.

The Ravens lost to the Titans (28-12), killing the parlay.

One of the most lopsided matchups Sharp pointed out involves the 49ers' heavy personnel against a Minnesota defense that has struggled all year to stop the run when teams put two backs in the backfield.

Win
Jan 10, 2020
#7341
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Minnesota Vikings defense is the worst in the NFL against 21 personnel runs

Minnesota is actually the worst defense in the NFL against 21 personnel runs. They allow 6.7 yards per carry and a 74% success rate... And guess who runs the most in the entire NFL? Kyle Shanahan in the 49ers.

The 49ers ran for 186 yards and 2 TDs against the Vikings in their 27-10 victory, largely validating Sharp's analysis of the matchup advantage.

Sharp also gave a ringing endorsement to the Matt Rhule hire in Carolina, citing the owner's willingness to spend on every possible advantage, including the analytics departments that certain other coaches pretend don't exist.

Loss
Jan 10, 2020
#26851
Big CatBig Cat

Matt Rule is the most intriguing coaching hire of the 2020 offseason

I'm most intrigued by the Matt Rule hire because I want to see if what he does transitions over. And we know that he's working with an owner who just like spend, spend, spend on everything.

Rule's tenure was widely considered a failure, as he was fired in his third season with an 11-27 record.
Win
Jan 10, 2020
#7343
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Bill Belichick definitely uses analytics despite his public denials

He's going to deny most everything possible unless there is an advantage to him. And he could easily say, I don't look at analytics... but somebody else there is giving him the research. He's got a team of guys that are using things, including computer vision... and that's all, in a nutshell, analytics is.

It is well-documented that the Patriots had an advanced research and development department during their championship runs.

Waterdogs Ownership Brainstorm

Paul Rabil stopped by to help Big Cat and PFT navigate their new reality as owners of the Waterdogs in the PLL. It turns out that being an owner involves more than just picking a cool logo and calling yourself a "Governor." The guys immediately started looking for ways to maximize their investment, ranging from "legally nebulous" betting schemes to taxpayer-funded stadium deals.

Loss
Jan 10, 2020
#26849
Big CatBig Cat

The Waterdogs will have a stadium built exclusively with taxpayer money

I'd like to do a census, some type of study to figure out where we could build a stadium exclusively with the taxpayer's money. I don't want to pay anything for my new stadium. Let's find out... figure out what location in America the voters are dumb enough that they'll just give us a lacrosse stadium.

The PLL remains a touring model without permanent home stadiums owned by teams.
Win
Jan 10, 2020
#26850
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I will bet on the Waterdogs and the over in every Waterdogs game

I want to be able to bet on the dogs and the over in dogs games. [Paul Rabil] says as long as we don't short our teams, we can wet our beak elsewhere.

PFT and Big Cat frequently discussed betting on their own team once the season started.

They also discussed the upcoming expansion draft and the possibility of drafting people purely for the sake of the podcast, like Steve Belichick or even Chris Hogan.

Fyre Fest and Kicking Dreams

PFT’s Fyre Fest this week is a classic case of accidentally caring. What started as a joke about the XFL's DC Defenders needing a kicker has turned into a genuine athletic obsession. PFT has been hitting the field, visualizing the uprights, and is now convinced he’s one phone call away from a professional paycheck.

Loss
Jan 10, 2020·Fyre Fest
#7344
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I actually think I am going to make the DC Defenders XFL team as a kicker

They suggested, as a joke, that the DC team they don't have a kicker right now... I started practicing, and now I actually think that I'm going to make the team... I want to be a professional football player. I want to make this team. And I believe that.

PFT Commenter did not make the DC Defenders or any XFL roster. He was a 35-year-old blogger with no professional kicking experience.

Meanwhile, the guys addressed the Royal Family drama, with PFT offering a "stay woke" theory that Prince Harry and Meghan Markle's move to Canada is actually a strategic land grab for the British Monarchy.

Loss
Jan 10, 2020·PR 101
#7345
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are moving to Canada as part of a British monarchy plan to retake dominance over the country

I think that this is the British monarchy trying to retake over Canada... Canada is like four Greenlands put together... This is the United Kingdom trying to retake over and establish dominance over Canada.

There is no evidence that the couple's relocation was a geopolitical strategy for the British monarchy to exert power over Canada.

We wrap up the week with a reminder that while the first day of March Madness is the most stressful day of the year for a gambler's wallet, at least you aren't wasting your finite heartbeats on a treadmill.

Void
Jan 10, 2020·FAQ
#26853
Big CatBig Cat

The first day of March Madness is the most stressful betting day of the year

First day of March Madness. Because there's just so much that can go wrong, and if it goes wrong, you're... you can be in a hole and look up out of the hole and be like, how am I going to get out of this hole? And then it's, oh, whoops, it's also a sinkhole.

Subjective experience of a degenerate gambler.
Loss
Jan 10, 2020·FAQ
#26852
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Running is not good for you because human hearts have a finite number of beats

Running isn't good for you. No one should ever think running's good for you. As far as I'm concerned, your heart only has a finite amount of beats programmed into it at birth. It's like eggs in a woman. So I don't want to raise my heart rate too high because then it's not going to be around to beat when I'm past the age of 70.

Scientifically, aerobic exercise like running actually improves heart efficiency and longevity, and there is no evidence of a 'finite beat' limit in humans.

Good luck to everyone this weekend, except for the people who bet against the can't-lose parlay.

nfl-playoffskansas-city-chiefsbaltimore-ravensplllacrossebetting

More Takes

Win
Jan 10, 2020·Picks
#7333
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Titans will win if they have a single drive over 11 minutes long against the Ravens

If the Titans have a single drive that's over 11 minutes long, then they will win this game.

The Titans won 28-12. While they didn't have an 11-minute drive, they dominated time of possession in the second half, satisfying the spirit of the take.
Win
Jan 10, 2020·Picks
#7335
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Chiefs will blow out the Texans because Houston are frauds

I got Kansas City. I think they're going to blow them out. I think Houston, they reveal themselves to be frauds. That game against Buffalo... Buffalo lost that game more than the other way around.

The Chiefs won 51-31 after trailing 24-0, a massive blowout in the end.
Win
Jan 10, 2020·Picks
#7336
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Russell Wilson is not good in cold weather

The only thing I'm worried about is I don't think Russell Wilson can play in the cold. I don't think he's a cold guy... his record and his stats in the cold, he's not good. He gets spooked.

Statistically, Wilson has historically performed slightly worse in games under 35 degrees, and the Seahawks lost this specific cold-weather game in Green Bay (28-23).
Void
Jan 10, 2020·Picks
#7339
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I will go to church every Sunday for a year if the Vikings win the Super Bowl

I should start going back to church every single every single Sunday for an entire year... if they [Vikings] win the Super Bowl.

The Vikings lost in the Divisional Round to the 49ers, so the condition was never met.
Win
Jan 10, 2020
#26854
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

Kansas City and Houston will go over 24 points in the first half

I think that Kansas City-Houston over 24 in the first half is an interesting wager. [Big Cat]: Reputation on the line. [Sharp]: I said interesting.

The first half score was 24-21 (45 total points) in favor of Houston, easily clearing the 24-point over.

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