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Randy Moss

Randy Moss

Guest
2016 — Present
30W·29L·7P·1 open
racinglifehorse racing66 scored

All Takes

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Randy MossRandy Moss

Rushing Fall is the horse to watch in the Friday Breeders' Cup races

There's a horse named Rushing Fall, trained by Chad Brown... She's had two starts. She won them both. Last time out, she looked like an absolute superstar. I think she is on her way to maybe some spectacular things.

Rushing Fall won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on November 3, 2017.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Gun Runner has the best chance to beat Arrogate in the Breeders' Cup Classic

I think this is Gun Runner's race to lose... Gun Runner's got better, Arrogate seems to have gotten a little bit worse and I think this is Gun Runner's race to lose.

Gun Runner won the Breeders' Cup Classic on November 4, 2017.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Highland Reel could repeat in the Breeders' Cup Turf if he goes wire-to-wire

Well, Highland Reels back again. So it's going to be interesting to see, with a short stretch especially, if he can blast off like that again and be able to do the same thing a year later. [Last year] Seamus Heffernan, his Irish jockey, opened up like eight lengths on the field... The horse went wire to wire.

Highland Reel did not repeat his win; he finished 3rd in the 2017 Breeders' Cup Turf (won by Talismanic).
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Winning the Belmont Stakes is less valuable to horse breeders than winning the Derby or Preakness

The mile and a half distance of the Belmont Stakes is such a rarity in American racing that winning the Belmont doesn't mean nearly as much to breeders if you're going to retire to stud than winning the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness. You've got a grand total of one grade one stakes in America running a mile and a half on dirt, and that's the Belmont.

In the world of Thoroughbred breeding, speed and mid-distance versatility (8-10 furlongs) are more highly valued than the 12-furlong endurance required for the Belmont.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Tapwrit is a must-play for the Belmont Stakes trifecta

I think [Tapwrit] is a must play in the trifecta. Absolute must play and maybe even must play in the exactas. Todd Pletcher has this thing figured out... They come into the Belmont, his home track. They're really rested, ready to roll.

Tapwrit actually won the 2017 Belmont Stakes, making this a perfect prediction.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Gormley is a 'no bet' for the Belmont Stakes

I would say here, [Gormley], no bet.

Gormley finished 4th in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, so 'no bet' was a good call for a winner/place play.
Push
Randy MossRandy Moss

Irish War Cry is the logical favorite to beat in the Belmont Stakes

If [Irish War Cry] runs his best race, he's a daylight winner. You can't say that about any of the other horses in the race. So even though he's the favorite, I think he's the horse to beat.

Irish War Cry finished 2nd, losing to Tapwrit, whom Moss also highlighted.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Red Cardinal is a great bet in the Belmont Gold Cup

Red Cardinal is a great bet in the Belmont Gold Cup tomorrow. It's the 10th race. He's coming in from Germany... and he's already one of the co-favorites in November in the early betting for the Melbourne Cup. And this is not a particularly good bunch of American horses. So he's a really, really good play.

Red Cardinal won the 2017 Belmont Gold Cup Invitational Stakes.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Sharp Azteca and Rally Cry will finish 1-2 in the Metropolitan Handicap

The Metropolitan Handicap. Sharp Azteca, who I think will win, probably. But the [number] two Rally Cry... he's five to one. And I think he's got an outstanding chance. And I think those two, in either order... I think they're going to run one, two.

Mor Spirit won the 2017 Met Mile, while Sharp Azteca finished 2nd and Rally Cry finished 6th. The 1-2 prediction did not hit.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Only Always Dreaming or Classic Empire can win the Preakness

In my opinion, only two horses can win the race, Always Dreaming and Classic Empire. Those are the only two that can win the race. The other horses are various confidence levels of playing in the exotics. I think Cloud Computing is a horse that can be a part of the exotics.

Cloud Computing won the 2017 Preakness Stakes at 13-1 odds, defeating Classic Empire. Always Dreaming finished 8th.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Don't bet on Ben's Cat in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint because he is too old

Don't bet Ben's Cat. He's a real popular horse that's going to run in the Jim McKay turf sprint. He's 11 years old, which is like playing in the NFL at age 70... Ben's cat being 11 would probably be the equivalent of a 45, 46-year-old player in the NFL.

Ben's Cat finished 9th in the 2017 Jim McKay Turf Sprint, proving Moss's recommendation not to bet on him was correct.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Shimmering Aspen will lead from start to finish in the Black-Eyed Susan

Shimmering Aspen, the horse that's won three races and four starts... I think is probably going to go wire-to-wire in the Black Eyed Susan at about four or five to one.

Shimmering Aspen finished 7th in the 2017 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Patch (the one-eyed horse) has zero chance of winning the Kentucky Derby.

What I told the people at NBC, if that horse [Patch] wins the Kentucky Derby, I'm going to immediately jump off the set. The heck with the TV show. I'm going to run down to the winner's circle and get my picture made with Patch. I love the horse, [but he's going to be 40-1].

Patch finished 14th in the 2017 Kentucky Derby.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Classic Empire is bad value for the Kentucky Derby

He's going to be the favorite, and he might be the favorite, and he's not going to be worth the shorter price. [No bet on Classic Empire].

Classic Empire finished 4th in the 2017 Kentucky Derby, validating the 'no bet' advice as he didn't even hit the board for a win/place.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Hence is a strong value play at 20-1 for the Kentucky Derby

Whether it's muddy or whether it's not muddy, you want a horse that's got a good chance at a decent price. His name is Hence... He's going to be 20 to 1... Steve Asmussen has never won the Kentucky Derby, but he's one of the best trainers in America, and he's overdue.

Hence finished 11th in the 2017 Kentucky Derby.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Looking at Lee is a great longshot to include in trifectas and superfectas for the Kentucky Derby.

I think the most likely [longshot] is a horse it's going to be a big price, his name is Looking at Lee. He'll like the distance, he'll just keep coming, keep coming. And he's a good horse to put in third and fourth in those trifectas and superfectas.

Looking at Lee finished 2nd at 33-1 odds, making Moss's value assessment very accurate.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Abel Tasman is a strong play to win or run well in the Kentucky Oaks.

Another [horse] called Abel Tasman, trained by Bob Baffert. Those are two horses that have also run pretty well from slightly off the pace, and that ought to play pretty well in the Oaks.

Abel Tasman won the 2017 Kentucky Oaks at 9-1 odds.
Void
Randy MossRandy Moss

Concussions in youth sports are a significantly more serious national issue than horse deaths in racing

In terms of significance, I think concussions have to be first because you're talking about... the health of young people, humans... progressive brain diseases etc etc. I think that's got to be at the top of the list... let's put the horses next because it is a serious deal.

Void
Randy MossRandy Moss

The 1.5-mile distance makes the Belmont Stakes an unpredictable crapshoot because American horses aren't bred for it anymore

the Belmont is also much more unpredictable than the Derby or the Preakness... horses in America are no longer bred to excel at a mile and a half... performers in the Belmont over the last maybe 10, 12 years have just fallen off the cliff. It really becomes almost a crapshoot.

Push
Randy MossRandy Moss

Destin is a better play to win the Belmont Stakes than Exaggerator

Destin, who ran in the Kentucky Derby, didn't have the best of trips... Todd Pletcher trains him. Now he gives him five weeks off, and he brings him back to the Belmont fresh. And I think that makes a horse like Destin a much better play than a horse like Exaggerator.

Destin lost by a nose to Creator. Exaggerator finished 11th. While Destin didn't win, Moss's 'better play' take was spot on as Destin nearly won while the favorite failed.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

Nyquist is not a slam dunk to win the Preakness due to potential rain

There's a probability that it's going to be a hellaciously rainy day on Saturday. [Nyquist] has never run in conditions like that before... Whereas Exaggerator, the horse that he beat in the Derby... he won very impressively in conditions like that.

The Preakness was run in a downpour; Exaggerator won the race while Nyquist finished third.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

The horse Lani is a good play for third place in the Preakness

There is a horse that is going to be double digits that I think is set up to run pretty well here and is a good play for third behind the top two, and that would be the Japanese horse, Lani.

Lani finished 5th in the Preakness Stakes.
Win
Randy MossRandy Moss

American Pharoah was more talented than Nyquist

American Pharoah was a brilliant kind of horse... American Pharoah [was] like a wild horse. Nyquist is sort of like the consummate professional... I think at this point, I would take American Pharoah. I think he has more overall talent than Nyquist.

American Pharoah is a Triple Crown winner and widely considered a generational great; Nyquist did not win another Triple Crown race after the Derby.
Push
Randy MossRandy Moss

Bret Bielema is succeeding at Arkansas more than I expected

I was a skeptic when they hired Bret Bielema because in the SEC, Arkansas is not going to out-recruit Alabama and Auburn and LSU. ... But I got to say, Bielema has proven me wrong a few times. ... He's succeeding more than I thought he would there.

Bielema's tenure ultimately ended in disappointment, with him being fired in 2017 after a 4-8 season, but at the time of the take (2016), he was coming off 7 and 8 win seasons.
Loss
Randy MossRandy Moss

Danzing Candy is a possible upset pick to lead the Kentucky Derby from start to finish

On the front end, a horse that's going to be about 20, 30 to 1 and has a shot is a horse called Danzing Candy... He'll be on the lead. They'll probably leave him alone on the lead. ... that's a recipe for a possible upset.

Danzing Candy finished 20th (last) in the 2016 Kentucky Derby.
Push
Randy MossRandy Moss

Sudden Breaking News will be running faster than any other horse at the finish line

There's a horse... his name is Sudden Breaking News. I promise you, he may not win, he may not finish second, he may not finish third. But when the horses cross the finish line, he'll be running faster than any horse in the race.

Sudden Breaking News finished 5th and was indeed gaining ground late, but Nyquist won comfortably.

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