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Takes

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Todd McShayTodd McShay

Jason Oweh is the most difficult evaluation in the draft due to zero sacks

Jason Oweh from Penn State to me is one of the hardest evaluations simply because if you can't get a sack as an edge rusher, then what are we doing here? ... All butt, no sack.

Evaluations are subjective, but Oweh's NFL career has mirrored this, showing great athleticism but inconsistent sack production.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Two quarterbacks will be drafted immediately after Mac Jones goes off the board.

I think that there's going to be, after Mac goes, I think that it's just going to be two quarterbacks immediately after him.

Mac Jones was drafted 15th. The next quarterback taken was Kyle Trask at 64th and Davis Mills at 67th. There was no run immediately after Jones.
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Big CatBig Cat

I am skeptical of Nick Sirianni because he self-leaked the rock-paper-scissors draft story.

He put the news out there that he was evaluating draft prospects by asking them to play rock, paper, scissors against them... I would have liked this story if someone else had reported it... but the fact that he put it out there, he's like, look at this cool, smart, awesome football guy thing that I did... I'm officially skeptical of Nick Sirianni at this point.

Subjective opinion on coaching style and PR tactics.
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Big CatBig Cat

Devonta Smith will succeed in the NFL despite concerns about his height and weight.

They're going after both [height and weight]. They're saying he's not able to play at the big boy level? Yeah, which is crazy because I think that guy is going to be able to play at the big boy level.

Devonta Smith became a star for the Eagles, recording multiple 1,000-yard seasons early in his career.
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Big CatBig Cat

Patrick Mahomes' diving incompletion in Super Bowl LV is the best throw ever made on a football field.

Patrick Mahomes touchdown throw that didn't count. Yeah, the best throw I've ever seen on a football field.

Subjective opinion on quarterback talent and specific play history.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The sports world has forgotten about Saquon Barkley.

I think we've forgotten about Saquon Barkley. I just haven't heard his name a lot... I'm not trying to make a grand point or anything out of this. I'm just saying that I feel like as a nation we've forgotten about Saquon.

Barkley would return to prominence later, but in April 2021 he was indeed out of the news cycle due to rehab.
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Big CatBig Cat

The NFL will change the 'one-shell' helmet rule in the next two years

I think the NFL in the next two years, I'm going to call my shot, is going to change the one-shell-only rule so that there can be multiple different helmets all year long, and it's going to be sick.

In June 2021 (just two months after this episode), the NFL approved a rule change allowing teams to use a second helmet shell starting in 2022.
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Julian EdelmanJulian Edelman

I can tell if a player can actually play just by looking them in the eyes in the huddle

Let me look a guy in the eyes and I'll tell you if he can play or not. That's what it is. It's in the huddle. When you're in a huddle, there's false eyes and there's not. You need to be able to look a dude in his eyes and really see if that guy, if he's ready for when it's going to come.

This is a subjective claim about personal intuition.
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Julian EdelmanJulian Edelman

Belichick disciples fail as head coaches because they try to act like Bill without having his experience

It's hard to go in and and and try to be Bill Belichick without being Bill Belichick. You know you can't just go in and demand the respect and put like this crazy work schedule... you can't just go and try to copy what he does. It's not going to be you. A lot of these guys, they go in, they try to be a hard dick or they try to be this... I don't think you can just go and demand a team like you're Bill Belichick, unless you're Bill Belichick.

This is a subjective opinion based on professional experience, but highly supported by the poor records of many Belichick assistants as head coaches.
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Daniel JeremiahDaniel Jeremiah

NFL Draft Quarterback rankings: Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, then Jones

I have Lawrence, then I have Wilson. And then to me, those are pretty distinct. I have Lawrence clearly one, Wilson clearly two. I think it's a really good discussion between Lance and Fields... I have Trey Lance over fields just with the decision-making... And then I have Mac Jones behind them.

This matches the draft order for the first two (Lawrence 1, Wilson 2) and the third QB taken (Lance 3), though Fields and Jones' pro careers have been mixed.
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Daniel JeremiahDaniel Jeremiah

Jameen Davis will be a late first round pick and is an explosive stud

I'll say Jameen Davis, the linebacker from Kentucky, is like one of my favorite players in the draft. So he'll probably go late first, but he's a stud, man. Like he is so explosive and he can really cover. So linebackers like that that can cover these tight ends, like there's tremendous value.

Jameen Davis was indeed drafted in the first round (19th overall) by the Washington Commanders, validating the 'late first' prediction.
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Daniel JeremiahDaniel Jeremiah

Penei Sewell is not a surefire Hall of Famer and I would take several 2020 tackles over him

I think Penei Sewell is a really good player, but I don't think he's kind of the Hall of Fame level player that he's been described as. I'm a little bit on an island from a media standpoint, but I know there's a lot of teams that feel that way. I like him. I like Slater better than him... the top three tackles last year for me were Becton, Wirfs, and Wills. Those three guys, I would take them over Penei.

Penei Sewell became an All-Pro and one of the best tackles in the league almost immediately, while some of the 2020 tackles (Becton) have struggled with injuries.
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Billy FootballBilly Football

Trevor Lawrence does not actually like football

[Trevor Lawrence] actually doesn't like football, which means that he's never fought to keep playing football. And he's going to get to a point in the NFL for the first time in his life where he's never had to play hard to keep playing football.

Lawrence has played several years in the NFL as a starter, showing durability and commitment, though debate about his 'elite' status continues.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

A long-haired quarterback has never won a Super Bowl

I don't get the whole Jesus complex thing. When was the last time a long-haired quarterback won a Super Bowl? I can't think of one.

Aaron Rodgers had somewhat long hair (for a QB) when he won, though they debate this in real-time. Later, Patrick Mahomes (curls) and others have had non-traditional short hair, but 'shoulder length' as PFT defines it remains rare for winners.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Cleveland Browns are my pick to win the Super Bowl because they have three former #1 overall picks

The Browns are now officially, if I had to pick a Super Bowl winner today, it would be the Browns just because they have three number one overall picks in the last five years. ... Miles Garrett, Baker Mayfield, and Clowney. ... That right there just tells me from my own draft analysis, that's the greatest team that's ever been created.

The 2021 Browns finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs.
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Big CatBig Cat

Jadeveon Clowney earned 60% of his career earnings from a single hit against Michigan

How many millions of dollars do you think Jadeveon Clowney has gained in his life, in his career, from that one hit against Michigan? There has to be a number. 60% of his career earnings. Every time you think of him, you think of that hit.

While mathematically impossible to verify, the hit is universally cited as his defining highlight.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Jets were right to refuse a 1st round pick for Sam Darnold because Kyle Shanahan would have made them look like idiots

I actually am going to side with the Jets here simply because Kyle Shanahan is that type of coach that if he got Sam Darnold, Sam Darnold would be a pro bowler. ... It'd make you look bad. Like, he's the one guy I wouldn't want to trade my quarterback to just knowing that he's going to end up looking good and everyone would be like, oh, the Jets suck even more.

The rumor itself (49ers offering #12) was later largely debunked as fake, and Darnold eventually struggled in Carolina before becoming a 49er later in his career anyway.
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Big CatBig Cat

Julian Edelman will eventually make the Hall of Fame in 20 years

If I had to guess, I think [Edelman] will end up in it in 20 years because people will keep it alive and it will grow in stature. And no other receiver will do what he's done in the playoffs in the next 20 years.

Edelman is currently not in the Hall of Fame; this take won't be testable for another ~17 years from the date of the take.
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Billy FootballBilly Football

Julian Edelman isn't actually retiring and will try to come back

I have a lot of faith in his work ethic, and I think he definitely is going to try to rehab it and come back. [Edelman] isn't actually retired.

Edelman never returned to the NFL following his April 2021 retirement announcement.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

You can't tell the story of football without Julian Edelman and Eli Manning

The best argument that Julian Edelman has and Eli Manning is you can't tell the story of football without those guys. Because you can't tell the story of the Falcons Super Bowl without Julian Edelman. You can't tell the story of Tom Brady's career without Eli Manning.

This is a subjective standard for Hall of Fame induction.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Samus Reyes is a future Hall of Famer

My Washington football team just signed a collegiate basketball player to play tight end. He's never played football before. His name is Samus Reyes. This is a guy that immediately, in my mind, he's already a Hall of Famer. This guy is going to be the diamond in the rough that turns around the entire field.

Samus Reyes had a very brief career, appearing in only 11 games for Washington in 2021 with zero receptions, and was out of the league shortly after. Definitely not a Hall of Famer.
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Bill BurrBill Burr

Julian Edelman belongs in the Hall of Fame for his big game performance

Whenever we needed a first down, whenever we needed a big play, somehow that guy got open. I would put that [Atlanta Super Bowl] catch arguably as one of the greatest Super Bowl catches of all time. I look at him like he was on the modern day Steelers of the 70s and he was our Swan or Stallworth and both of those guys are in. I put him in there.

Whether Edelman belongs is a matter of HOF voter opinion.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

NFL wide receivers wearing single-digit numbers is a 'there goes the neighborhood' moment

The NFL is just, I guess, giving clearance to wide receivers to wear single-digit numbers... It's a major There Goes the Neighborhood moment. I think it's going to happen. Peter King leaked it out, and when Peter King has a scoop like that, it's Roger Goodell just being like, Peter, you are my trial balloon.

The rule change was officially adopted by the NFL later in April 2021, allowing receivers and other positions to wear single-digit numbers.
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Eli ManningEli Manning

Tom Brady and the Patriots were using the 'Omaha' cadence before Peyton Manning

Originally, the Patriots, Tom Brady was using it back in probably 2005 and 2006. And his quarterback coach, John Huffnagle, came from the Patriots to the Giants... He had it in our playbook in 2004. So, Patriots are probably using that in 01, 02, at least... then Peyton kind of made it famous.

Cadence terms like 'Omaha' are common in West Coast and Erhardt-Perkins systems. Brady has acknowledged using it, confirming Eli's claim that it wasn't a Manning invention.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Both the Jets and Panthers will finish the season 9-8 after the Sam Darnold trade

Both teams finished this trade 9-8. That's really what it comes down to.

In 2021, the Panthers went 5-12 and the Jets went 4-13. Neither came close to 9-8.
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Big CatBig Cat

If Sam Darnold never gets mono, his career would have been completely different

My question is, does Sam Darnold get traded from the Jets if he never gets mono? Is that the sliding door moment of Sam Darnold's entire life? I actually kind of think it is... If he never gets mono, is he something different? And I actually kind of think yes.

This is a hypothetical 'sliding doors' scenario that cannot be definitively proven.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Major colleges shorten their tracks to fake faster 40-yard dash times during Pro Days

I think that the major programs out there are making a section of their practice fields where the hash marks are slightly closer together. So the place where they have them run the 40-yard dashes at their own pro days, it's actually slightly less than 40 yards, which would make them time out better.

While pro day times are notoriously faster than combine times due to hand-timing and 'home cooking,' there is no evidence colleges literally shorten the field.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Kyle Pitts should be the number one overall pick in the NFL Draft

I think Kyle Pitts should get drafted, number one. He runs like a deer. He is a chess piece mismatch. And then he keeps opposing defensive coordinators up at night. Those are the three things that he does.

Kyle Pitts was drafted 4th overall by the Falcons; Trevor Lawrence went #1.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The tight end is the new quarterback in the NFL

I think if you look at teams that won Super Bowls recently, you can go through the list. They all have dominant tight ends. Is the tight end the new quarterback? They're game changers because tight ends are the best.

While tight ends are valuable, the QB still dominates MVP and salary metrics. However, recent champions (Chiefs, Bucs) did indeed rely heavily on elite TEs.
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Billy FootballBilly Football

Zach Wilson's cross-body pro day throw was absolutely insane

Zach Wilson had an insane throw where he rolled out left and then cross body through towards the right pylon, like 70 yards in the air.

The throw was widely considered impressive by scouts and media at the time, though its translation to NFL success is a different story.
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Big CatBig Cat

The 49ers definitely traded up to the #3 pick for a quarterback

The biggest ramification from all this is it's clear the 49ers traded up for a quarterback. John Lynch said afterwards, like, no, Jimmy Garoppolo is still our guy. Okay, no, but whatever. Thanks for saying it.

The 49ers used the #3 pick to select quarterback Trey Lance.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

At least four quarterbacks will go in the top 10 of the 2021 NFL Draft

It's going to be like 2011 all over again, I think, where we're going to see four quarterbacks go in the top ten.

In the 2021 Draft, 3 QBs went in the top 3 (Lawrence, Wilson, Lance), and the 4th (Justin Fields) went at #11. So he was off by one spot for the 'top 10' threshold.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Rondale Moore is a Super Bowl-winning weapon if used in space

If you draft Rondale Moore, get him in space, Super Bowl. We're trying to get more touches with Rondale Moore. That's all it takes.

Rondale Moore has had a decent but injury-plagued career and has not been a Super Bowl catalyst as of 2024.
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Big CatBig Cat

Mitch Trubisky will rehab his image in Buffalo and get another starting opportunity next year

If [Mitch Trubisky] spends a year as Josh Allen's backup, I think that the negative media around Mitch will dissipate. And then next year, he will be a name where it's kind of the Jameis Winston. It's like, oh, well, let's give him a try. He was a top pick.

Trubisky spent one year in Buffalo and then signed a two-year deal with the Steelers to be their bridge starter.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The NFC East is going to be dangerous this year

The entire NFC East is getting dangerous. The Beast, baby... We're Joaquin Phoenix's Joker. You guys all laughed at us last year. Now we're about to just flip out and shoot everybody.

Hot TakeFootballHotSarcastic
The division was significantly better in 2021, though PFT's extreme delivery is satirical.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Ryan Fitzpatrick is the most fun quarterback Washington could have hoped for

I am under no illusion that Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to come in and immediately turn the football team into a Super Bowl contenders because we already are Super Bowl contenders, but he is the most fun quarterback that I could have hoped for, besides [Jameis] Winston. He makes every week fun. No matter what happens, he's going to have some games where he throws for five touchdowns, he's gonna have some games where he throws for five interceptions.

Fitzpatrick started only one game for Washington in 2021 before suffering a season-ending hip injury, providing very little 'fun' or play.
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Big CatBig Cat

Every NFL contract is effectively a two-year deal

The way to look at every single contract in the NFL is it's a two-year deal. No matter how many dollars they throw out there, how many years they throw out there, everyone just signed a two-year deal and then they can cut. If you look at every contract like that, it all kind of makes sense.

While not literally true for every deal, the majority of veteran NFL contracts allow teams to move on after two seasons with manageable dead money.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Bears are destined to never have a franchise quarterback

The Bears are just destined to never have a quarterback. Every time the Bears have the chance to possibly do a franchise-altering move, they find a way not to do it. It doesn't matter if the Bears have a top draft pick because we had a top draft pick and we drafted Mitch Trubisky. This sucks the soul out of my tone of be.

Historically, this has remained true for the Bears, as neither Dalton nor subsequent picks like Justin Fields have settled the position.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I will cut my hair if Ryan Fitzpatrick wins a playoff game for Washington

When Ryan Fitzpatrick wins a playoff game, I will cut my hair. For the football team. I'll say it with my chest: when Ryan Fitzpatrick wins a playoff game, I will cut my hair.

Fitzpatrick never won a game for Washington, let alone a playoff game, so the hair remained long.
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Big CatBig Cat

Taysom Hill's $140 million contract extension is 'made up money' and a victory for his agent

This is Shefty's masterpiece of bowing down to the agents and tweeting whatever they ask him to tweet... I'd be mad that Shefty tweeted this... It says $140 million, all years voidable, and he has $12 million guaranteed. He signed a $140 million contract for $12 million.

The contract was indeed structured with four voidable years purely to spread out his signing bonus for cap relief; Hill was never intended to be paid $140M.
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Big CatBig Cat

The connection between Drew Brees and New Orleans is a unique player-city relationship that will never be replicated

I don't think we will ever see a player have a relationship with a city as unique and as deep as Drew Brees has with New Orleans. It's very rare for there to be that perfect set of events... what he did for that city and the pride that I think that city takes in Drew Brees... it goes beyond sports.

This is a subjective historical assessment.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

If Baker Mayfield wins a Super Bowl for Cleveland, he will be more beloved than LeBron James

What if Baker wins a Super Bowl for the Browns? I feel like that elevates him above LeBron because he never left. Baker never left.

Baker Mayfield was traded by the Browns a year later, and the hypothetical was never tested.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Russell Wilson is going to be a Chicago Bear

Russell Wilson is going to be a Chicago Bear, Big Cat... I think that if we're looking at the teams that Russell Wilson would hypothetically want to be traded to... the Bears are far and away the most likely destination... If I were to put money on it, I would say yes, he will be a Bear.

Russell Wilson remained with the Seahawks for the 2021 season. He was traded to the Broncos in 2022. He never played for the Bears.
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Big CatBig Cat

If Russell Wilson joins the Bears, he will immediately stop caring about football to become a global celebrity

Almost instantly, he's going to put out like a double album with Ciara. And like he's going to all he's going to care about is being a celebrity and not football. And he's going to instantly just lose all his football powers. I guarantee you that's what's going to happen.

Since Wilson was never traded to the Bears, this hypothetical scenario could not be tested.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Bill Belichick is the only person who can convince Jack Easterby to trade Deshaun Watson

The second that that Russell Wilson put the New York Jets on his hypothetical list... something different is happening... Bill Belichick could exert influence and like do mind control shit on Jack Easterby. And he's probably the only person in the NFL that could convince him to change his mind and deal Deshaun [Watson]... if Bill agreed to finance a megachurch with Jack Easterby's name on it in Houston, Texas... I guarantee you Jack Easterby makes that deal right now.

Belichick did not convince Easterby to trade Watson to the Patriots; Watson was eventually traded to the Browns in 2022.
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Big CatBig Cat

Drew Brees will not retire and will try to come back for another season

I think he's going to try to come back. I really do... I think he got a little bit healthier in the offseason. And he's like, 'You know what? I could still throw 75% completion percentage five yards down the field.'

Drew Brees officially announced his retirement from the NFL on March 14, 2021, two days after this take was made.
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Big CatBig Cat

Dak Prescott's new contract is the best deal ever signed for a player

It's actually, like, maybe the best contract that's ever been signed [for a player]... $126 million out of the $160 million is guaranteed. And it's four years.

The contract was widely praised for its structure, effectively allowing Dak to hit free agency again quickly.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Dak Prescott is an MVP-caliber player because the Cowboys stunk without him

You could make the argument that Dak is an MVP guy because you saw what happened when he went out last year. And the team just stunk. Andy Dalton is probably an average backup. So Dak goes out, Andy comes in, the team just goes to absolute shit.

Dak has historically performed at an MVP-level pace (like early 2020), but the team's record with and without him is a common debate point.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Dak Prescott is the best quarterback in the NFC East

As a Washington football team fan, I'm not super excited because he's definitely the best quarterback in the division. There I said it. I know that's controversial.

In 2021, the other starters were Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Dak was the consensus best.
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Big CatBig Cat

I would rather have Dak Prescott's 4-year deal than Patrick Mahomes' 10-year deal

I'd rather have Dak Prescott's deal than Patrick Mahomes... [Dak] if he's good for these next four years, can get paid a ton of money again when the salary cap goes back up... He basically is giving himself another shot at it.

This is a financial theory that has played out; Mahomes' deal eventually became a bargain for the Chiefs, requiring adjustments.