PMTPMT DB

Takes

Win
Take Slip·Apr 9, 2025
#PMT-2025-0409-4344
Big CatBig Cat

Todd Golden's technical foul was the most strategic in history

Todd Golden probably deserves credit... his technical was maybe the most strategic technical of all time. Because after his technical foul, which was of I think like three or four minutes into the second half, the fouls went 13 to three on Houston.

The stat shift is verifiable, but the 'strategic' intent is subjective. Florida did win the title.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 4, 2025
#PMT-2025-0404-4480
Dickie VDickie V

Duke is the only team in the country top-5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency

I have figured Duke to win it all. There's a reason I picked that. Number one, any time a team is top five in offensive and defensive efficiency, they got a great chance to win. Duke's the only team in the country that's top five by Ken Pomeroy in efficiency in both areas.

This is a verifiable statistical claim about KenPom rankings as of April 2025.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 2, 2025
#PMT-2025-0402-3765
Bruce PearlBruce Pearl

Auburn felt like a special team early in the season after competing physically with Houston.

We had to play an an incredibly well coached, hard playing Houston team where we were gonna find out whether we were gonna be physical and tough enough... once we were able to beat Houston or at least be on compete with 'em, we felt like this team had a chance to be pretty special.

Auburn did indeed have a successful 2024-25 season, making a deep tournament run as Bruce Pearl predicted.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 28, 2025
#PMT-2025-0328-3397
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Teams are 1-7 in their next game after winning on a buzzer beater in the NCAA Tournament

Teams in the last 10 years are one in seven after a buzzer beater in the NCAA tournament in their next game. One in seven. Numbers never lie.

This is a verifiable statistical claim regarding historical NCAA tournament trends.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 24, 2025
#PMT-2025-0324-14498
Big CatBig Cat

NIL and the transfer portal are ruining March Madness upsets

The biggest culprit that I've seen being blamed is NIL and Transfer Portal. I think that's actually a fair critique... all the Power five schools are basically picking apart all the smaller schools and taking their best players. And then you don't get upsets.

The 2025 tournament (in this transcript) featured historically low upsets in the first round, supporting his point.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 24, 2025
#PMT-2025-0324-14500
Big CatBig Cat

Dusty May is a premier tournament coach

Dusty May is just a hell of a coach. He said it on our show. He's like, we needed a reset... What have they done since then? They won the Big 10 tournament and now they're in the Sweet 16... I'm putting him in like tournament coach.

Michigan made the Sweet 16 in 2025 under May after a late-season surge.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 24, 2025
#PMT-2025-0324-14501
Big CatBig Cat

Tom Izzo is the God of March

Tom Izzo now 16th Sweet 16... His expected wins are 27.6. He has 39 wins... that's an 11.4 difference. The next closest on this chart is Cal with six wins above expected. Tom Izzo very good tournament coach.

Izzo's record of reaching Sweet 16s as a lower seed is statistically unmatched.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 24, 2025
#PMT-2025-0324-14503
Big CatBig Cat

John Calipari is finally back to his underdog roots

Kentucky made him soft. Now he's going Arkansas... now he's kind of the underdog. 40 minutes himself. He's feeling himself again... he was too luxurious in Lexington for him. Now he's gotta get back to his roots and coach basketball.

Calipari reached the Sweet 16 in his first year at Arkansas in 2025.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 24, 2025
#PMT-2025-0324-14504
Big CatBig Cat

Shaka Smart is not a good tournament coach

In his last nine NCAA tournament trips, Shaka Smart has been eliminated by a team at least three seed lines worse seven times... Still a good coach but not a good tournament coach right now.

The stats regarding his seed-based losses are accurate historical data.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 21, 2025
#PMT-2025-0321-13806
Big CatBig Cat

McNeese State dominated Clemson despite the close final score

McNeese State I think leads the, leads the storyboard because what a day for Will Wade... and gives us a classic 12 5 upset where I know it looks like a two point game, but they were dominating Clemson for, for the majority of the game.

The speaker is recapping a game that occurred in the fictionalized/future context of the episode (2025).
Win
Take Slip·Mar 21, 2025
#PMT-2025-0321-13810
Big CatBig Cat

Kansas was not built for a long tournament run this year

I think most Kansas fans saw this coming in the fact that they just weren't built for a long run... Moreover, they won one tournament NCAA tournament game in this time there. [Hunter Dickinson] is done.

Kansas's performance in the 2025 tournament is part of the show's context.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 19, 2025
#PMT-2025-0319-16958
Big CatBig Cat

The disparity between Georgia's football and basketball success is the biggest in sports

Of the 10 college football national champions since 2002, seven out of 10 of them have been to a final four. All, all 10 of them have been to an elite eight... and Georgia has not won a [tournament] game. Combined 154 tournament wins for all other programs that have won a national title in football. And Georgia has had zero since 2002.

The statistics regarding Georgia's lack of NCAA tournament wins since 2002 compared to other football champions are factually accurate.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 17, 2025
#PMT-2025-0317-15980
Big CatBig Cat

Don't get cute with brackets this year; the one seeds are historically dominant

This is the year that don't be afraid to just do chalk. Only four teams since 2000 have entered the tournament [with a] plus 35 net rating... this year, four teams have 35 net rating or higher. Wow. So that's insane. Yeah. Like that, that just shows you that the one seeds this year are playing at such a high level and are so dominant... don't be afraid to just go chalk.

The factual claim about net rating is likely accurate based on KenPom data as of episode date; the strategy advice depends on tournament outcomes.
Win
#PMT-2024-1218-11390
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Doug Gottlieb is doing a bad job coaching Green Bay and should spend less time on social media

Jesus, Doug, a seven game losing streak in the last place in the Horizon League. Less time on social media, more time in the gym... I think he's, has he won a game in December... He's doing things like his way... sat [his best player] for the entire game even though they can't win a game right now.

Gottlieb's coaching performance is a matter of public record, showing a significant losing streak at the time of the episode.
Win
Take Slip·Jul 10, 2024
#PMT-2024-0710-8020
Big CatBig Cat

Arizona and Kansas playing Big 12 basketball is going to be amazing

Arizona and Kansas playing Big 12 basketball is gonna rule. You know, it's two of things that you think about and like the, like BYU and and UCF getting a nice rivalry going.

The quality of the basketball in the new Big 12 is widely considered elite by analysts.
Win
Take Slip·Jun 28, 2024
#PMT-2024-0628-15083
Jack GohlkeJack Gohlke

Kentucky should have guarded me full court and denied every catch

Yeah, like you would think that a guy like, like me or, or him that's, that's really just stroking it like that they would pick him up full pretty much. Like deny every catch and, and just make it tough for him. Like, don't let, don't let him catch the ball. Don't let him get a shot up because you know the result is gonna come from that.

Gohlke hit 10 three-pointers in the game; analysts generally agreed the defense was insufficient.
Win
Take Slip·Jun 12, 2024
#PMT-2024-0612-13444
Big CatBig Cat

Dan Hurley turning down both Kentucky and the Lakers in three months is a historic run

Dan Hurley might be the, the, so back to back national titles, obviously the new face of college basketball coaching. And then to turn down Kentucky and the Lakers in the same three month span. That's a historic run to turn down those two entities in that amount of time for that much money. He's just flexing on everyone.

This is a fact-based opinion on the prestige and rarity of the situation.
Win
Take Slip·Jun 10, 2024
#PMT-2024-0610-1536
Big CatBig Cat

Dan Hurley will stay at UConn and turn down the Lakers

I think he [Dan Hurley] is going to stay at Yukon. The fact that it's taken this long and that he made an announcement... It feels to me like it's gonna be a hype video. I'm back.

Dan Hurley announced later that day that he was turning down the Lakers to stay at UConn.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 10, 2024
#PMT-2024-0410-5819
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

UConn just completed the most dominant postseason run of any team in history

The most dominant stretch in postseason play of any team ever. The best, the best run of any team ever. I think we could say like UConn dominate everybody. The games were not particularly exciting. UConn, they, I think they're the best second half team in the entire tournament by a vast margin.

UConn won all 6 games by 13+ points for the second straight year, a historic level of point-differential dominance.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 8, 2024
#PMT-2024-0408-7489
Big CatBig Cat

John Calipari leaving for Arkansas is a huge win for Kentucky

I think it's actually a huge win for Kentucky. Kentucky fans like they wanted him gone two weeks ago. Not only that, but it's a huge win for Kentucky for a couple things. One, you don't have to pay him any money... two, all the boosters that had turned on Cal are gonna be all the way back in... and three... Kentucky is 1 billion times bigger than Coach Cal.

The immediate reaction from Kentucky fans and the subsequent hire of Mark Pope (though not a 'home run' name) confirmed the fan base was ready to move on. Kentucky avoided the $33 million buyout.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 8, 2024
#PMT-2024-0408-7494
John FantaJohn Fanta

Dan Hurley will be the coaching face of college basketball if he wins the title

Hurley would put himself as the coaching face of college basketball. You will have won each NCAA tournament game if, if you win this game in commanding fashion... He'll win each game by at least 13 points.

Hurley won his second title and then famously turned down the Lakers job, cementing him as the premier name in college coaching.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 5, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0405-20067
Big CatBig Cat

UConn only needs to play a 'C-minus' game to beat most teams

UConn is just a kind of a, there's levels and they're just at a different level right now if they come out and play. Like UConn would have to play what a c minus game to give Alabama a chance. Like if I think of, if UConn plays a B game, they beat everyone.

UConn won every game in the tournament by double digits, including the championship.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 1, 2024
#PMT-2024-0401-553
Big CatBig Cat

DJ Burns is the man and NC State is America's team for beating Duke

DJ Burns is the fucking man. Yes. I love him. Thank everyone in America should thank DJ Burns for beating Duke. Oh. For just being awesome.

NC State did beat Duke to reach the Final Four and became a viral sensation during the 2024 tournament.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 1, 2024
#PMT-2024-0401-555
Big CatBig Cat

Zach Edey is legitimately good at basketball despite his game being unenjoyable to watch

Purdue fans should just be like, that's okay because we win. You know what I mean? Like, there, it, it, it's at a point where it's like to, to quote our good friend Jay Bilas agree to disagree. Like you, you guys have your team, they play a certain brand that is winning basketball that's getting you to the final four. Most of America doesn't enjoy this experience.

Edey won back-to-back Naismith Player of the Year awards, proving his quality, while the 'watchability' is a matter of fan opinion.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 1, 2024
#PMT-2024-0401-557
Big CatBig Cat

If UConn repeats as champions, they must be considered one of the best college basketball teams ever

But if they finish the job this upcoming weekend and Monday, they have to go in the conversation of Best College basketball teams of all time. Yeah. Like it, it has to be said.

UConn did win the 2024 title, finishing one of the most dominant tournament runs in history (average margin of victory over 20 points), cementing their place among all-time greats.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 1, 2024
#PMT-2024-0401-558
Big CatBig Cat

The Kim Mulkey 'hit piece' was ultimately just a standard profile of a demanding coach

The hit piece on Kim Mulkey dropped. It turns out it was just a profile of Kim Mulkey. It was just like she's an asshole. Yeah. Which anyone who's a very successful coach in in college sports or pro sports, you could write it and be like, yeah. It turns out they're kind of an asshole.

The article was widely perceived as less scandalous than Mulkey's reaction suggested it would be.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 1, 2024
#PMT-2024-0401-563
Dan HurleyDan Hurley

The Big East representative recusal rule in the tournament committee room is a disadvantage

In that room, there's, you know, with all those committee members, when the, when the representative from your league, when they're talking about teams in your league, that person's not allowed to stay in the room. Yeah. So I guess what you gotta learn the, we have gotta learn the arc of is like, I guess of how to destroy these other conferences when you are in the room.

The recusal policy for committee members whose schools or conferences are being discussed is a real NCAA protocol.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 29, 2024
#PMT-2024-0329-2353
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Alabama is going to smoke Clemson in the Elite Eight

I think Alabama's gonna run [Clemson] out of the gym. It was a cute little win that Clemson had. You ran up against a team that couldn't make a three point shot. Alabama's gonna just score 120 points on you. I think Clots clock has struck midnight on the Clemson Tigers.

Alabama beat Clemson 89-82 to advance to the Final Four. While they didn't win by a massive blowout as 'smoke' implies, the prediction of a win was correct.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 29, 2024
#PMT-2024-0329-2359
Tom IzzoTom Izzo

UConn is the best overall team in the NCAA tournament right now

UConn right now, from what I've seen, is the best overall team. And it'll be a hell of a battle if it's them and Purdue and then you, you take a Houston, I mean they can beat you different ways.

UConn won the 2024 NCAA Championship, winning every game by double digits.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 25, 2024
#PMT-2024-0325-16814
Big CatBig Cat

NC State is no longer a Cinderella; they are a team of destiny.

The one Cinderella that's still in there is a Cinderella that we can all focus on in NC State. Also not a Cinderella anymore because they just keep winning. They went from Cinderella to just Team of Destiny. Like, there was a moment when NC State in that Oakland game, they win in overtime, and I'm like, why can't they just win it all?

NC State continued their improbable run all the way to the Final Four as an 11-seed, fulfilling the 'destiny' narrative.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 25, 2024
#PMT-2024-0325-16819
Big CatBig Cat

Anyone who says Zach Edey is not good at basketball is a moron.

Anyone who says Zach Edey's not good at basketball is a fucking moron. The guy's good at basketball, especially college basketball. I don't want whatever happens to the NBA happens to the NBA... Anyone who says he is not good at basketball, he is just tall, is being a hater.

Edey won the Naismith Player of the Year and led his team to the Title game, followed by being a top-10 NBA draft pick, vindicating his skill level.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 25, 2024
#PMT-2024-0325-16822
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

UConn will definitely win the National Championship.

I wanna be very clear. Yukon is going to win the National Championship.

UConn went on to win the 2024 National Championship.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 22, 2024
#PMT-2024-0322-760
Big CatBig Cat

The winner of Oakland vs. NC State will be the story of the tournament heading into the Sweet 16

What the winner of that game [Oakland vs. NC State] is going to be the talk of the week leading up to Sweet 16 because it'll be a great story either way.

The winner was NC State, and DJ Burns/the Wolfpack's run became the dominant story of the tournament as they advanced to the Final Four.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 22, 2024
#PMT-2024-0322-764
Matt JonesMatt Jones

The John Calipari era at Kentucky is likely over after the loss to Oakland

I think this might be worse [than the St. Peters loss]. It's terrible. You know, lose to St. Peters and Oakland, two of the last three years, and I think probably the end of the Calipari era. There's a really good chance. I mean, I don't think it's certain, but I think a lot of the fans want that.

Calipari ultimately left Kentucky for Arkansas a few weeks after this episode, confirming the 'end of the era' prediction.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 22, 2024
#PMT-2024-0322-767
Stanford SteveStanford Steve

Houston has the toughest second-round matchup of any 1-seed

I think Houston has the toughest matchup when it comes to second round games for the one seeds... Houston just because they're not healthy and, and the way they play... and A&M has guys that can score some buckets and, and so does Nebraska.

Houston was pushed to overtime by Texas A&M in the second round, validating the 'tough matchup' assessment.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 20, 2024
#PMT-2024-0320-1253
Big CatBig Cat

Wisconsin is in trouble against James Madison

I've looked through the Wisconsin James Madison game in depth. I think Wisconsin's fucked... I'm being completely honest and unbiased that like, this is a bad matchup.

James Madison defeated Wisconsin 72-61 on March 22, 2024, making this take correct.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 18, 2024
#PMT-2024-0318-15707
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

UVA getting into the NCAA tournament is a disgusting decision

The sickest thing they did was put UVA in. Yeah, that's disgusting. UVA. So you should be ashamed of yourself.

Virginia played in the First Four and lost 67-42 to Colorado State in a game widely mocked for being uncompetitive, validating the 'disgusting' take for many fans.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 18, 2024
#PMT-2024-0318-15712
Jon RothsteinJon Rothstein

Duquesne will upset BYU in the first round

My upset in this region is Duquesne beating BYU in an 11-6. I think we have to remember this and you guys get this. BYU for the most part was a team that was recruited to play in the West Coast Conference. And now you have a team in Duquesne who just won the Atlantic 10.

Duquesne (11 seed) defeated BYU (6 seed) 71-67 on March 21, 2024.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 18, 2024
#PMT-2024-0318-15711
Jon RothsteinJon Rothstein

UConn will repeat as National Champions

I've got Yukon out of the region of Gladiators... I like Yukon over Purdue, Clingan against Edey, a Battle of the Titans in the title game, and Yukon led by Dan Hurley... becoming the first back-to-back national champion since Florida in 2006 and 2007.

UConn did indeed win the 2024 National Championship, beating Purdue in the final.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 15, 2024
#PMT-2024-0315-13041
Big CatBig Cat

The over on 146.5 in the UConn vs. St. John's game looks nice

Yukon St. John's over at that. That looks nice. 1 46 and a half.

The final score was UConn 95, St. John's 90, for a total of 185 points, easily clearing the over.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 13, 2024
#PMT-2024-0313-14408
John FantaJohn Fanta

UConn is the clear front runner for the National Championship

In my eyes [Connecticut] is the best team in the country. They're the front runner for the national championship and they should be. The three losses are at Kansas, to Seton Hall [when Clingan got hurt], and then Creighton had another worldly shooting performance.

UConn went on to win the 2024 National Championship in dominant fashion.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 13, 2024
#PMT-2024-0313-14411
John FantaJohn Fanta

Dalton Knecht has the chance to be the face of March Madness

I think [Dalton] Knecht has a chance to be the face of March Madness with the way that he's going, with the way that he's scoring the basketball. He'll be able to score. He's a guy who can be a Doug McDermott, Jimmer Fredette type guy for their team.

Knecht was a top performer in the 2024 tournament, scoring 37 points in the Elite Eight loss to Purdue, largely fulfilling this prediction.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 4, 2024
#PMT-2024-0304-5984
Big CatBig Cat

The Big 10 Women's Basketball tournament will be better than the Men's tournament

The Big 10 tournament for the women's college basketball is gonna be better than the Big 10 men's tournament. I'll just say that right now.

While subjective, the 2024 Big 10 Women's tournament (won by Iowa) drew record ratings and significantly more national buzz than the men's tournament.
Win
Take Slip·Feb 28, 2024
#PMT-2024-0228-9167
Jay BilasJay Bilas

Josh Schertz at Indiana State is a top 3 schematic coach in the country

Josh Schertz at Indiana State would be number one... It's like watching a European Pro team that's been together for a long time. It's just magnificent.

Schertz's success at Indiana State led to him being hired by Saint Louis in 2024, validating Bilas's assessment of his coaching talent.
Win
Take Slip·Feb 26, 2024
#PMT-2024-0226-2091
Big CatBig Cat

Kyle Filipowski was not seriously injured during the Wake Forest court storming

I just, I think he's probably fine. I think it might've been a phantom roll of an ankle. Like, oh shit, we lost and I just shoved the guy possibly—ow my ankle hurts now my arm.

Filipowski played in Duke's next game against Louisville only three days later, scoring 9 points, and didn't miss any subsequent time, supporting the claim that it wasn't a severe injury.
Win
#PMT-2024-0223-4801
Mark TitusMark Titus

Every team in college basketball currently sucks on the road

I think I wanna kind of say everyone sucks, but that's not a good way to get people into the sport. Everyone sucks on the road. That's the thing... Home court will lie to you.

Statistically, the 2023-24 season saw an unusually high number of top-ranked teams losing on the road to unranked opponents.
Win
#PMT-2024-0223-4802
Mark TitusMark Titus

John Calipari is on the hot seat because the 'meme' has become the reality

At some point the meme becomes the reality. I don't think they're gonna fire him. He has a lifetime contract... but Kentucky fans are absolutely ready for a change though. Absolutely. If he fucks this up, he's completely lost the magic.

Shortly after the season ended in another first-round loss (to Oakland), Calipari left Kentucky to take the Arkansas job, effectively resolving the hot seat situation.
Win
#PMT-2024-0223-4803
Mark TitusMark Titus

This Purdue team is legitimately better and more versatile than last year's squad

I think this Purdue team's better than last year. The guard play has first of all their guards are older. Braden Smith last year was like a game manager more and now he's actually a stud. And then Lance Jones, the kid they got in the transfer portal is fucking awesome. I do think that Purdue is going to make a final four.

Purdue successfully made the Final Four and reached the National Championship game in 2024.
Win
#PMT-2024-0223-4804
Mark TitusMark Titus

The Mountain West has replaced the Atlantic 10 as the 'hipster' basketball league

The Mountain West has kind of become that... It is has become the league that's like if you don't know what game to watch, just throw on a random ass mountain West game. It's what the A-10 used to be.

The Mountain West received six bids in the 2024 tournament, reflecting its increased stature.
Win
#PMT-2024-0223-4806
Big CatBig Cat

Dan Hurley is the only coach in college basketball I trust to win a title right now

Who do we trust that's gonna win a national championship this year? Dan Hurley. 'Cause I saw it last year. That's it. That's literally it. These other guys haven't proven they can win.

UConn went on to win the 2024 National Championship.
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