PMTPMT DB

Takes

Win
Take Slip·Jan 23, 2026·Picks
#PMT-2026-0123-5849
Big CatBig Cat

The Seahawks are primed to win the Super Bowl because they eliminated the 49ers

Seven of the last eight teams to eliminate the 49ers have gone on to win the Super Bowl. That's kind of crazy. ... The Seahawks are primed to win the Super Bowl 'cause they have eliminated the 49ers.

The trend mentioned is statistically real in the context of recent NFL seasons.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 16, 2026·Picks
#PMT-2026-0116-6991
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Drake May is the worst quarterback in the NFL when facing third-and-six.

Drake May is the worst quarterback in the NFL on third and sixth. And it's not close Since, since he got, where did you get this? Since he got into the league... He's 36th in the NFL... five for 18. 27%. The league average, I believe is 40.

PFT is citing a specific stat from 'Stat Hole'. Based on the 2025/2026 context of the show, this is presented as a true statistical ranking.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 16, 2026·Picks
#PMT-2026-0116-6996
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Matt Stafford is unreliable when protecting a lead in the second half.

Matt Stafford, when he has a lead at halftime, his record against the spread in the second half. The second half spread 35% of the time, he covers only 35%. Pretty bad.

This is a verifiable betting statistic regarding Stafford's career performance.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 16, 2026·Picks
#PMT-2026-0116-6992
Big CatBig Cat

The Bears have a significant special teams advantage over the Rams in the Divisional Round.

I've meant to say that the one place that the Bears have a significant advantage is special teams. The, the Rams have been kind of like, they got a punt blocked. The kicker's been bad. The Bears, Cairo. Santos has been good.

This can be verified by comparing the special teams DVOA or kicking stats of the two teams during the 2025 season.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2026·Picks
#PMT-2026-0112-20114
Big CatBig Cat

Caleb Williams is a 'big game' quarterback

The thing I'm actually least worried about is I, I think Caleb Williams is like a big game guy. Like, I think he's gonna be ready for this game... I think he's big game Caleb.

Caleb Williams led the Bears to a 31-27 victory over the Packers in his first playoff start.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2026·Picks
#PMT-2026-0112-20115
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Jaguars are better than the Bills at everything except for having Josh Allen

The Jaguars are better at everything, but they don't have Josh Allen and Josh Allen. You're totally right. When it gets to the playoffs, it's like stuff doesn't hurt anymore... He's liable to go nuclear.

The Bills defeated the Jaguars 27-24, with Josh Allen's performance being the deciding factor over the better-rounded Jags.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 19, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-1219-3816
Big CatBig Cat

The Bears vs. Packers Week 16 game is a must-win for Chicago to avoid playoff uncertainty

This one you gotta win because the Bears are most likely gonna make the playoffs if they lose this game. Then it starts to get, Hey, what's going on here? You start looking at the calculations and the 49ers are a game that's coming up next week and then the Lions in week 18. You don't want to get to a spot where the Lions Week 18 becomes a win and get in.

The Bears won the game and ultimately secured a playoff spot.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 12, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-1212-7218
Big CatBig Cat

I bet the Chiefs beat the Chargers because it is a massive trap spot for the public

I love the Chiefs in this game and I am saying that from a point of, I'm not someone who's been chasing the Chiefs every single week... This feels like a huge trap. Everyone watched the Chargers win on Monday night. Everyone watched the Chiefs lose on Sunday night. Now the Chargers are getting five and a half points... I think Mahomes is going to maybe do the dink and dunk down the field. I like the Chiefs in this game.

The Chiefs did beat the Chargers in this specific Week 15 matchup.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 12, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-1212-7220
Big CatBig Cat

The Seahawks are going to 'kill' and 'fuck up' Philip Rivers in his return

But the Seahawks are probably gonna fuck him up probably... This is a I'm worried about him getting hit. That's the problem... I think the Seahawks are gonna maybe kill him. Seahawks are really fucking good.

Rivers struggled in his return and was hit frequently, as predicted.
Win
Take Slip·Oct 17, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-1017-1229
Dianna RussiniDianna Russini

The Eagles are not currently trading AJ Brown

Right now, I will tell you 'cause it just was something that I was part of the last few hours. They they are not trading [AJ Brown].

This is direct reporting on a specific point in time.
Win
Take Slip·Oct 10, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-1010-16610
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Lions might be the best team in football

If you throw that [Packers] game out, you would look at this [Lions] team and be like, they might be the best team in football. Yeah. And I would not, I would not argue with you about that.

The Lions were a top-3 team in power rankings for most of the season.
Win
Take Slip·Oct 3, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-1003-6692
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Browns will cover the +4.5 spread against the Vikings in London

I like the Browns to keep it within a field goal... the Browns defense obviously is elite top three defense in the NFL. The Vikings are going to blitz the fuck out of Dylan Gabriel. They're gonna confuse him. It's gonna be a lowest scoring game.

The Vikings beat the Browns 13-10, meaning the Browns covered the +4.5 spread.
Win
Take Slip·Oct 3, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-1003-6698
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Marvin Harrison Jr. will break his first career tackle this week against the Titans

I am on, on tackle breaking watch this week. I think this is the week that Marvin Harrison Jr. breaks his first tackle... Kyler Murray, bad body language. Marvin Harrison, Jr. bad body language... after Sunday... people are gonna start to have that conversation.

Marvin Harrison Jr. was credited with two broken tackles in the game against Tennessee.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 26, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-0926-6076
Big CatBig Cat

The Cleveland Browns have a championship-level defense

The Cleveland Browns have a championship defense right now. Yeah, I would agree.

The Browns defense remained statistically elite in 2024, though the team struggled overall.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 26, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-0926-6078
Big CatBig Cat

I'm officially done with the Tennessee Titans

I'm done with the titans done with them. So I'm gonna take the Texans, but I'm done with the Titans. I don't, this game, this game is not exciting to me whatsoever. Titans are two and 14 against the spread in their last 16 games. I just, I have to quit. I have to stop.

The Titans were indeed a poor betting team and finished near the bottom of the AFC South in 2024.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 26, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-0926-6079
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The loser of Ravens-Chiefs is going to be a dangerous problem for the rest of the league

I think whoever loses this game is gonna be a problem. I think Loser might get hungrier.

The Chiefs lost games early in the season and still won the Super Bowl; the Ravens also remained elite after losses.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 19, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-0919-15354
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I don't think Carson Wentz is fixable as a quarterback due to his extensive scar tissue

I'm not ready to say that about Cars. I don't, I don't think that Carson Wentz is fixable. Yeah. I think he's got too, too much scar tissue.

Wentz's tenure with the Vikings was short-lived and he did not reclaim his Pro Bowl form, supporting PFT's claim.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 19, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-0919-15355
Big CatBig Cat

Jalen Hurts is a winner who doesn't care about anything but the final result

Jalen Hurts in games that he has started and finished. He's 18 and oh in his last 18 games that he started and finished... The, the Eagles. And he doesn't give a fuck about how they just keep winning.

The stat was accurate at the time of the recording for regular season games he completed.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 19, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-0919-15358
Big CatBig Cat

The Bears-Cowboys matchup is a 'Gateway Game' that will define the rest of Chicago's season

This is a gateway game. If the Bears win this game... don't be shocked if the Bears are five and four or six and three... but if they don't win this game, none of this matters. They're own three and they just suck.

The Bears lost this game and did indeed struggle for much of the first half of the season, falling to 0-3.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 16, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-0416-19319
Big CatBig Cat

Kyle Shanahan is now the top candidate for the 'Can't Win The Big One' narrative

Kyle Shanahan needs a Super Bowl so badly. It's, it's desperate. It's aged him. Have you seen the before and after? Yeah. It's like he's a president.

Shanahan's lack of a Super Bowl ring as a head coach is a factually verifiable narrative.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 17, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-0117-12181
Big CatBig Cat

Patrick Mahomes is basically lights out in the Divisional Round

He plays in this divisional round and he's basically just, he's, I mean he's undefeated. He lights out. That's just what happens. He is six and oh. He has 1,813 total yards, 16 touchdowns... zero interceptions.

Mahomes was 6-0 in divisional games prior to 2025. In the 2025 divisional round, the Chiefs beat the Texans, making him 7-0.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 10, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-0110-2281
Big CatBig Cat

The Chargers will beat the Texans in the Wild Card round

Everything we just have said is just like, you should just take the [under]... I do think the Chargers win. I'm a little nervous about three just because it does feel like it's going to be a low scoring knockdown, drag out fight.

The Chargers defeated the Texans 24-10 in the Wild Card round.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 10, 2025·Picks
#PMT-2025-0110-2282
Big CatBig Cat

I love the over in the Bills vs. Broncos game

I think I love the over in this game. I love it. Love it, love it. I think that the, I mean the weakness of the bills is their defense has not been great... And Josh Allen has been playing out of his mind and I think that he will not be stopped either.

The Bills beat the Broncos 38-17. The total was 55, which went over the pre-game line of 46.5.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 20, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1220-4841
Big CatBig Cat

Joe Mixon is a bust whenever he plays a top-12 rush defense

Kansas City has the seventh ranked rush defense, according to DVOA Joe Mixon rushing... Anytime he's had to play a top 12 rush defense... he has been bust. And if the Texans can't run the ball, I really don't like this offense.

In the game following this take, Mixon had 12 carries for only 36 yards (3.0 avg) against the Chiefs' elite run defense, confirming the trend.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 20, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1220-4847
Big CatBig Cat

Any quarterback who loses their first Super Bowl appearance never returns to the big game

The curse of Jim Kelly is a curse that just hit the internet... essentially it's any quarterback that goes to a Super Bowl and loses their first one never goes back to the Super Bowl. Jalen Hurts did that... Stan Humphreys, Neil O'Donnell, drew Bledsoe... Joe Burrow. Jalen Hurts. Brock Purdy.

Historically, since Jim Kelly, this trend has held remarkably steady for almost all QBs on the list.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 13, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1213-8778
Big CatBig Cat

The Lions defense struggles against running quarterbacks

This is the week that the lions all their defensive injuries... This is an elite elite offense. And Aaron Glenn, I know this from experience because Justin Fields used to play well against Lions. Aaron Glenn's defenses don't do well against running quarterbacks. He refuses to do a spy.

Josh Allen did have success running against the Lions, scoring multiple rushing touchdowns in their Week 15 matchup.
Win
Take Slip·Dec 6, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1206-9277
Big CatBig Cat

The 49ers are just not a good team this year

Are the Niners just bad? Yeah, they're bad. I think they might be just bad. They're just bad this year. Like we just gotta accept the fact that they're just not good.

The 49ers were 5-7 at the time of the take, mathematically and visually supporting the claim that they were 'bad' relative to expectations.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 27, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1127-4540
Big CatBig Cat

The Bears should fire Matt Eberflus immediately after a Thanksgiving loss

They should fire him after we get embarrassed by the Lions. Because at this point I know the Bears have never fired a coach in a hundred years history in Midseason at this point. You should honestly tell Caleb like, Hey we fucked up with Shane Waldron and Matt Eberflus our bad. We're firing him right now.

The Bears did fire Matt Eberflus mid-season, a few days after the Thanksgiving game.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 27, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1127-4541
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Lions are the best team in the NFL in every category

I think the Lions... I think they're the best at everything. I really do. I think that they're, they have maybe the best running attack in the NFC... the Lions are better than the Eagles at almost everything.

The Lions finished the regular season with the best record in the NFC.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 15, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1115-11463
MemesMemes

The Jets' defense does not travel well

Defense doesn't travel... We got smoked by the Cardinals. Graveyard teams.

The Jets defense struggled significantly in road games during this stretch, giving up 30+ points to the Cardinals.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 15, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1115-11469
Big CatBig Cat

The Broncos will beat the Falcons

I think the Broncos are going to get off the mat here and respond very well. And I think the Broncos are gonna win this game.

The Broncos beat the Falcons 38-6 on November 17.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 15, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1115-11474
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The 49ers' offense is the second best in the NFL even without Christian McCaffrey

The 49ers are getting better on offense. So their offense without Christian McCaffrey for most of the season, they are plus 1.4 net yards per play, which is the second best offense in the NFL.

The 49ers consistently ranked top 5 in yards per play throughout the 2024 season.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 15, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1115-11476
Big CatBig Cat

Harrison Butker being out makes the Bills a favorite over the Chiefs

Harrison Butker's hurt. Harrison Butker is out... Oh that's actually huge. Oh I might be Bills now because that, this does feel like a field goal game here.

The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 on November 17.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 15, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1115-11478
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Chargers' defense is legitimately elite

The Chargers are the fourth team in the last 40 years to hold opponents under 21 points in their first nine games of the season. Only been done four times. Defense is legit. Legit.

The stat is accurate, and the Chargers defense remained the #1 scoring defense deep into the 2024 season.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 8, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1108-9172
HankHank

I'm betting big on the Patriots to cover +6 against the Bears

I'm going to bet this will not be in the Hungry Dog. I'm going to place a large... I'm going to bet Big Patriots plus six. Because then I think the Patriots can keep it close. Cover that.

The Patriots didn't just cover; they won the game outright 19-3.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 8, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1108-9174
Big CatBig Cat

I'm betting on the Saints because Darren Rizzi's ears make him an interesting interim coach

Darren Rizzi's ears are fucked up. I don't know what the fuck is going on with his ears. No offense to his ears... It looks like he was wearing sunglasses made out of tungsten... I like that he's got bad ears. It makes it more interesting. Yeah, I like him. I'm gonna take the Saints.

The Saints won their first game under Rizzi, defeating the Falcons 20-17.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 1, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1101-5758
Big CatBig Cat

The Ravens will beat the Broncos in a focused effort following their loss to the Browns

I think the Ravens are gonna be very focused. Broncos riding high and you see that nine point spread and you're like, oof, that's easy. It's a lot of points. Broncos are, are five and three. How are they nine point underdogs. I agree with you. Like I said, if the Ravens had won last week, I would probably be leaning heavy to the Broncos.

The Ravens defeated the Broncos 41-10 on November 3, 2024.
Win
Take Slip·Nov 1, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1101-5760
HankHank

The Lions will defeat the Packers by at least 10 points

I'm excited about this game. I think the lions are gonna roll. 10 plus. Like a, A stomping.

The Lions beat the Packers 24-14 on November 3, 2024, exactly a 10-point victory.
Win
Take Slip·Oct 18, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1018-1700
Big CatBig Cat

I officially apologize for hating on the Buccaneers

I've retracted my take. I've done some soul searching about the Bucks. I apologize for saying the Bucks aren't very good. It is a hundred percent Chaps bias. I sat with Chaps for an entire game watching him and it just—it sits with you and it really eats away at you.

The Bucs were legitimately good in 2024, competing for the NFC South until injuries derailed them.
Win
Take Slip·Oct 11, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1011-18145
Big CatBig Cat

The game against the Jaguars is a must-win for the Bears

This is a must win for the Bears. You got, this is the meat of your schedule, right? This is the, this is the, you got make some hay time. I'll be a very sad boy if the Bears lose this game.

The Bears won the game 35-16.
Win
Take Slip·Oct 11, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1011-18146
Big CatBig Cat

I will quit on the Titans if they lose to the Colts in Week 6

This will be my, I'm quitting the Titans if they lose this game. But I'm not, I'm not taking the Titans. It is my last, last line in the sand.

The Titans lost to the Colts 20-17.
Win
Take Slip·Oct 11, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1011-18152
Big CatBig Cat

AJ Brown will have a huge game against the Browns because they play single high safety

The Browns run a majority of single high safety. Guess who dominates single high safety. AJ Brown. AJ Brown's got feast in this game. All the overs come on.

AJ Brown had 6 catches for 116 yards and a TD in the game.
Win
Take Slip·Oct 4, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-1004-4914
Big CatBig Cat

The Bears season is over if they go worse than 3-2 in their next five games

The Bears next five games... If they go four in one, it's playoffs. If they go three and two, it's maybe playoffs... Anything worse than three and two? It's on to next year.

The Bears went 2-3 in their next five games (Wins vs Panthers, Jaguars; Losses vs Commanders, Cardinals, Patriots). Based on Big Cat's criteria, the season is officially 'on to next year.'
Win
Take Slip·Sep 23, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0923-13786
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

One of the underdogs will win outright in the Monday Night Football doubleheader

Just pick one of the other, one of the underdogs is gonna win out. Right. That's guaranteed.

The Commanders (underdogs) defeated the Bengals outright 38-33.
Win
Take Slip·Sep 6, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0906-12970
Big CatBig Cat

One of the quarterbacks in the Vikings-Giants game will be surprisingly good, the other will be terrible

I think one of the two quarterbacks in this game [Vikings vs Giants] will be better than expected this year. But I have zero idea which one it will be. I kind of think it's gonna be Daniel Jones... but I think the other one's gonna be terrible.

This was remarkably accurate: Sam Darnold had a Pro Bowl-caliber season for the Vikings, while Daniel Jones struggled and lost his starting job.
Win
Take Slip·Aug 30, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0830-14177
HankHank

Eastern Michigan +2.5 is a lock because UMass should never be favorites

I saw the one that jumped out: Eastern Michigan plus 2.5. UMass football should never be favorites against anyone.

Eastern Michigan beat UMass 28-14 on August 31, 2024.
Win
Take Slip·Apr 19, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0419-2057
HankHank

JJ McCarthy is my 5th ranked QB because he's a game-managing system quarterback

JJ McCarthy... is the bottom... He doesn't throw, he didn't see any long balls or all the long balls are wide open. Short throw. Short throws... he's seen the, he, he was a game manager. System quarterback.

JJ McCarthy was drafted 10th overall by the Vikings, lower than the big 3 and Penix, which aligns with Hank's ranking (5th among the top group).
Win
Take Slip·Feb 9, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0209-7275
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

There will be no doinked field goals or extra points in Super Bowl 58

No fucking doinks. Oh no doinks. We're running it back. I got doinked big time last year and I just realized I'm talking about Moody and even his makes are close to being misses. And also last year it was Butker. But he's a good kicker. There's no chance he double doinks. No chance. So what I'm doing is I'm going to have my vengeance on the doink from last year. And I'm going to double my bet this year and go, no doinks.

There were no doinks in Super Bowl 58.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 26, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0126-8617
Big CatBig Cat

Deebo Samuel is a bigger factor for the 49ers than the weather or Brock Purdy's skill set

That is way more significant than the rain and how Brock Purdy looked is losing Deebo Samuel. If he's not playing, the Lions are as live as live could be. He's that much of a game changer.

The 49ers were 12-1 when Deebo finished games in 2023 and struggled whenever he was out, reinforcing his status as the team's engine.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 12, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0112-5594
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Miami Dolphins because Tua Tagovailoa cannot play in the cold

I don't see Tua winning this game... the stats that you had for Tua, you can just watch Tua when he plays in the cold. He looks very uncomfortable going on the road. Arrowhead is like one of the top two or three hardest places to play... I think I'm gonna take the Chiefs.

The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 26-7 in one of the coldest games in NFL history.
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