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HankHank

The Browns aren't as good as people think, so I'm taking the Rams to beat them

Essentially, my logic is that the Browns aren't as good as people are giving them credit for. I'm taking the Rams.

Correct. The Rams defeated the Browns 20-13 on Sunday Night Football.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Lions are better than people realize and will cover +6.5 against the Eagles

For the third week in a row, I'm taking the Detroit Lions. Plus six and a half. Don't sleep on the Lions. I still think they're a little bit better than people give them credit for. I think the Eagles are the better team, but offensive line issues, basically every wide receiver they had got injured last week. I think this might be a little bit closer.

Correct. The Lions won 27-24 outright, easily covering the +6.5 spread.
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Big CatBig Cat

If the Bears lose to the Broncos and Joe Flacco, I will have a full-blown meltdown

I have been threatening all week that I will melt down if the Bears lose to the shitty Broncos and the even shittier Joe Flacco. If the Bears lose on Sunday. It's a meltdown. I'm promising a meltdown. I will stomp my feet. I will say mean things to people around me that I will later on regret... I might even cry a little. I'm going to yell at people. I'm going to tweet at people really mad. The Bears cannot lose this game.

The Bears won 16-14 on a last-second field goal, so the meltdown was averted.
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HankHank

The Patriots will cover -18.5 against the Dolphins

I know it's a crazy line. It's outrageous, but it's one of those things where there's going to be no better thrill than rooting for the Patriots to cover 18 and a half. I can unbiasedly tell you that the Patriots are going to cover 18 and a half.

The Patriots demolished the Dolphins 43-0, easily covering the 18.5 point spread.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Bills will beat the Giants and cover -1.5

My favorite. I'm going to go with the Bills. Minus one and a half on the road. I like the Bills. I hate the Giants. I hate Pat Shurmur. I hate Eli Manning's stupid face in this game.

The Bills won 28-14, covering the spread.
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Big CatBig Cat

I am betting the Falcons as my underdog pick for Week 2

I'm back on my bullshit. I'm taking the Falcons as my underdog. I don't give a fuck... When you lose on a team, you then chase that team forever until you get satisfaction.

The Falcons beat the Eagles 24-20 as 1.5-point underdogs.
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Big CatBig Cat

An Eagles, Seahawks, and Ravens moneyline parlay is a lock that cannot lose

The Philadelphia Eagles at home against the [Redskins] win. Seahawks at home against the Bengals. The Ravens in Miami. All the money line parlay even money. How does that lose? It cannot lose.

All three teams won their Week 1 games, making the parlay a winner.
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Big CatBig Cat

The NFC North will be the toughest division in the NFL this year

I actually think the NFC North going to be the toughest division this year.

The NFC North finished with the second-best combined record of any division in 2019, making this largely correct.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Broncos will stink and won't score points until they move on from Joe Flacco

Until they get away from Joe Flacco, they're going to stink though. They're not going to score points.

The Broncos went 2-6 with Flacco, averaging only 15.6 points per game. They looked much improved once they switched to Drew Lock.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I'm worried that Tom Brady missing OTAs is the beginning of the end for the Patriots

I want to use this occasion to point out maybe a more serious issue, and that's that Tom Brady isn't at OTAs either. So is this the beginning of the end for the Patriots?

Hot TakeFootballMediumSarcastic
The Patriots went 12-4 that year but lost in the Wild Card round, and Brady left for Tampa Bay the following offseason, so it was indeed the beginning of the end for that era.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Warriors' biggest opponent this year is themselves

The Warriors every year, it's been like no one can beat the Warriors. This year, there finally is a team that can beat the Warriors, and it's the Warriors. So I'm excited to watch the Warriors try to beat the Warriors because this is what happens at the late dynasties... I truly think they all hate each other.

The Warriors did eventually 'beat themselves' via injuries and the roster fracturing, losing the Finals to the Raptors and seeing Kevin Durant leave that summer.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Andy Reid was a 'candy ass' for praising the Raiders after beating them

Andy Reid was a candy ass last weekend after they beat the Raiders on the road. He gave him a big pat on the back and said, I love you guys. Great win. ... Andy, I don't think that it was [a good football team].

The Raiders finished the 2018 season 4-12, supporting PFT's assessment that they weren't a 'good football team' worth such high praise.
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HankHank

This is the week the Patriots propel themselves back to the top of the NFL

Everyone's been talking about the Rams, Chiefs, Saints. They've all been kind of shown as frauds. They have weaknesses. This will be the week the Pats propel themselves back to the top of the league.

The Patriots did win this game and eventually won the Super Bowl that season, essentially proving Hank right about their resurgence.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I'm taking the Bears -3.5 against the Lions on Thanksgiving

Right now the Bears are favored by 3.5 points. I like the Bears. The defense looks legit... I would take them by 10.

The Bears beat the Lions 23-16 on Thanksgiving 2018, covering the 3.5 point spread.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Cowboys-Falcons loser is eliminated from the playoffs

Loser leaves town... Cowboys-Falcons. That's the game. The loser of that game will officially be eliminated, similar to the Seahawks-Packers game.

The Falcons lost and finished 7-9, missing the playoffs. The Cowboys won and made the playoffs. The take was correct for the loser.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Cowboys will give their fans just enough hope to break their hearts

The Cowboys can't go out in a normal way. They can't lose and not make the playoffs by just being bad. They have to do it in a heartbreaking way. So we have not heard the last of the Cowboys this season.

The Cowboys won the division but lost in the Divisional Round to the Rams, arguably a standard 'heartbreaking' exit.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Never bet on the Oakland Raiders

Don't bet on the Raiders. Also, here's another tip. I bet on the Raiders like five times this year. They will find new ways to reach levels of incompetence that we have not seen in this country in the last 200 years.

OpinionFootballMediumSarcastic
The 2018 Raiders finished 4-12 and were one of the worst ATS (Against The Spread) teams that year.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Vikings-Bears game will essentially decide the NFC North

I think the Vikings and Bears [is the game of the week] because I think that is going to be essentially the game to decide the NFC North because the winner of that will be in a nice spot going forward.

The Bears won this game 25-20, taking a lead in the division they never relinquished, while the Vikings eventually missed the playoffs.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I am putting all my money on the Saints to beat the Eagles

The Saints have always done the 'I'm going to step on your throat and you're going to thank me for it.' ... So all my money is going to be going on the Saints in this one.

The Saints humiliated the Eagles 48-7.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Saints' 'dome magic' has returned to the Superdome

I want to say the Saints, the dome magic might be coming back... Ever since the ceremony with Drew Brees in the dome, the dome recaptured that magic.

The Saints went 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship game in 2018, confirming their home dominance that season.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Rams vs. Broncos game will go under 52.5 points due to the snow

My under is going to be Rams-Denver. So it's 52 and a half, but it's going to be in the snow. Snow football... I'm already mad at myself because if I get all worked up for a snow game and then I tune in and it's a flurry or if there's no snow, that's the most disappointed I'll be all year.

The Rams won 23-20. The total was 43, which is well under 52.5.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I'm taking the Jets (-1) at home against the Broncos because people are overrating Denver's performance against the Chiefs

My favorite that I'm taking, I'm taking the Jets at home... minus one against the Broncos. People are going to be saying the Broncos are a good team because they played in prime time and they almost beat... the Chiefs. And then people are going to be hating on the Jets... I'm going to go with the Jets minus one at home.

The Jets dominated the Broncos 34-16, easily covering the spread.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Panthers are not a good football team even if they win

I actually think this is kind of a, are we sure they're a good game for the Panthers too? Because if the Panthers lose, I'm going to start asking, are we sure they're good? I don't think the Panthers are good, even if they win.

The Panthers started 6-2 but then lost seven games in a row to finish 7-9, proving Big Cat's skepticism somewhat correct.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Bet the Redskins +3 because of the bad turf at FedEx Field

One, Aaron Rodgers, he says that his knee's getting – like he's afraid that it's going to get worse. And the Redskins' defensive line is pretty good... Aaron Rodgers' knee, the Redskins' turf. That's all you need to say for that game.

The Redskins beat the Packers 31-17, easily covering the +3 spread.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Lions have already quit on Matt Patricia

The Lions already quit on Matt Patricia. I think he's already lost the locker room. I'm going to go all the way there... They already hate Matt Patricia. They already hate that stupid backwards hat and the trash bag he wears.

Patricia's tenure was characterized by a massive rift between him and the players (like Darius Slay and Quandre Diggs), leading to his firing in 2020.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Jets are overvalued after their Week 1 performance

Is this a major Ravens against the Bills situation where they're [the Jets] overvalued now? Correct. Well, guess what? I'm an idiot, and so actually all of my picks, I'm looking at them all right now, they're all basic picks.

The Jets lost to the Dolphins 20-12 in Week 2, proving they were indeed overvalued.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Over 45 is a lock for the Titans-Dolphins game

For my over, I'm going with Tennessee and Miami. So it's at 45. Mike Vrabel... you always got to go with a new head coach because you don't have anything on film for him. They're getting away from the exotic smash mouth... so you can't score any fewer points than you did with Mike Malarkey. So I like Tennessee-Miami.

The final score was 27-20 Dolphins, totaling 47 points and clearing the over of 45.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Under 42.5 is the lock for the Jaguars-Giants game

I'm going to take the Jags-Giants under, 42.5. I think the Giants are going to try to run a lot. I think both teams are going to run a lot, so we're going to get one of those weird games where it's like 10-7 going into the fourth quarter, and there's only been 12 passes.

The game ended 20-15 (35 total points), which was under the 42.5 threshold.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Buccaneers will cover +9.5 against the Saints

For my underdog I'm going with the Buccaneers... They're plus nine and a half at New Orleans. This is one of the situations where every bone in my body says to take New Orleans so I'm going to fade myself and I'm going with the Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers famously won this game outright 48-40 in 'Fitzmagic' fashion.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Ravens will cover -7.5 against the Bills

The Bills are going to be very, very bad until they start Josh Allen. I'm going to take the Ravens. It's a heavy line, seven and a half. But I just feel like this is, this Bills offensive line has holes... I think the Ravens, John Harbaugh, he always wins week one.

The Ravens destroyed the Bills 47-3, easily covering the 7.5 point spread.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Over 48 in the Chiefs-Chargers game is money in the bank

I've got my super secret double lock with an over. It's such a good pick that I didn't even feel good telling you about it during the normal segment because it's basically money in the bank. Kansas City and the Chargers over. 48 points. Take it. Smell it.

The game was a shootout ending 38-28 (66 total points), crushing the 48-point line.
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Big CatBig Cat

The OKC Thunder are not a super team and Carmelo Anthony is trash

I do not give a fuck about the Oklahoma City Thunder. I do not care that they have three quote-unquote superstars because Melo is trash. Paul George and Russ Westbrook are still very, very good, but they are not going to beat anyone. Even if they win their first series, they're not going to do anything. It's like this thing that happens to everyone's brain where they see a couple of splashy names on a team together and they say super team. They don't let them get in a series. They could beat anyone. They could not beat anyone. They're not good.

The Thunder lost in the first round to the Jazz in 6 games.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I'm taking the Jaguars and the Under against the Patriots

After I thought about it for a while, I'm going to take the Jaguars in the under.

The Patriots won 24-20. The Jaguars covered the +8.5 spread, and the total of 44 stayed under 46. PFT was correct on both counts.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Chargers were the best team to not make the playoffs in 2017

The Chargers were the best team to not make the playoffs. Absolutely were... They had a better DVOA than the Ravens. They were a better team than the Ravens.

Football Outsiders' DVOA metric did indeed rank the 9-7 Chargers (8th) significantly higher than several playoff teams that year.
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Big CatBig Cat

Lock of the Week: Chiefs -10 vs Dolphins

I'm going to take the Chiefs. I think the Chiefs have figured it out. Minus 10 Dolphins in Kansas City. Dolphins already won the Super Bowl. Beat the Patriots on Monday night. So this is all just gravy.

The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 29-13, covering the 10-point spread.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Jaguars will beat the Seahawks and prove they are for real

I'm just going to call it right now. The Jaguars are going to beat the Seahawks at home. And then afterwards, you know what the big talk of the town is going to be? ... These Jags are for real.

The Jaguars beat the Seahawks 30-24 and eventually reached the AFC Championship game that season.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Chargers will be the best team to not make the playoffs this season

I'm taking the Chargers, minus four, the best team to not make the playoffs. ... I stand by that. They have an unbelievable pass rush. Phil Rivers, they almost win every single game. They're going to be the best team that doesn't make the playoffs.

The Chargers finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker with the Bills and Titans. They were widely considered the best team to miss the 2017 postseason.
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HankHank

I'm taking the Redskins +7 against the Seahawks

I'm going to go with the R-Words. The Washington R-Words. It looks like a trap to me, but I am also a sucker. I like to just walk into those traps and get clanked up by the bear traps... Seahawks. Plus seven.

The Redskins beat the Seahawks 17-14, winning outright as 7-point underdogs.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Bills are a max bet -2.5 against the Raiders

Bills minus two and a half against the Raiders. How does that make sense? In Buffalo, the Raiders have to go all the way to, and the Bills are coming off a bye... I'm taking the Bills, max bet.

The Bills defeated the Raiders 34-14 on October 29, 2017, easily covering the 2.5 point spread.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I'm taking the Eagles at home against the Redskins

I'm going to go with the Eagles at home against the R-Words. Ooh, Monday night.

The Eagles beat the Redskins 34-24 on October 23, 2017.
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HankHank

Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears will cover +6.5 against the Ravens

Taking our boy, Mitchell. Mitchell Trubisky. Plus six and a half... The Bears, are we sure they're bad with Mitchell Trubisky? This is a breakout game. They've covered the spread.

Correct. The Bears beat the Ravens 27-24 in overtime, covering the +6.5 spread easily.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The 49ers will cover +10.5 against the Redskins

I learned my lesson. I'm not going to take any D.C. teams, so I'm taking the 49ers to cover double digits [against the Redskins]. They're due.

The Redskins won 26-24, so the 49ers (+10.5) covered easily.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Steelers will cover +4.5 against the Chiefs

I'm going to do the rat line of the week, the wonky game of the week. I'm taking the Steelers plus 4.5 [against the Chiefs]. It makes no sense... Vegas doesn't know what to do about that.

The Steelers beat the Chiefs 19-13, winning outright.
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HankHank

I love the Packers moneyline and spread against the Cowboys

Love, love, love the Packers. Plus two. I love Moneyline. I love them straight up... Love the spread, love the money line.

The Packers won outright, covering both the spread and the moneyline.
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HankHank

Lock of the Week: Rams +6 and outright win vs. Cowboys

I like the Los Angeles Rams, plus six. I think they're going to win that game outright. [They are playing] the Cowboys.

The Rams beat the Cowboys 35-30 on Oct 1, 2017. Hank nailed the outright win.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Warriors will beat the Cavaliers in five games in the 2017 NBA Finals

My pick is Warriors in five.

The Golden State Warriors won the 2017 NBA Finals 4-1 over the Cleveland Cavaliers.
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HankHank

I'm taking Gonzaga -7 and North Carolina in the Final Four.

I've got Gonzaga winning. Minus seven? Yeah. And then I've got UNC.

Both Gonzaga and North Carolina won their Final Four matchups to advance to the National Championship game.
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HankHank

The National Anthem for Super Bowl LI will be under two minutes and fifteen seconds

I got the under 2:15 [on the National Anthem]. I did a little research... Lady Antebellum did it [two years ago] and it was only two minutes.

Luke Bryan's anthem in Super Bowl LI clocked in at 2:04, meaning the under hit.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Capitals are regular season heroes who always look awesome in January

And I know not only is the Capitals year, but the Capitals in January, this is when they get hot. This is when they beat teams. You can count on the Capitals in the regular season to look awesome.

The Capitals won the Presidents' Trophy in 2017 (best regular season) but lost in the second round of the playoffs, confirming they are regular season heroes.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Tom Savage is a one-week wonder

I think Tom Savage is a one-week wonder.

Tom Savage started the next few games for the Texans but was eventually replaced and never became a consistent NFL starter, proving he was indeed a temporary solution.

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