PMTPMT DB

Takes

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Take Slip·Apr 7, 2025
#PMT-2025-0407-10276
Big CatBig Cat

Duke's loss to Houston was the biggest choke in Final Four history

Duke's downfall for four hours, but like, sign me up. I'll take off my pants right now. 'cause that was, holy fuck. Was that an incredible Final Four delivered... Duke biggest choke in Final Four history. Best team ever analytically... They're the only team to, to have a higher field goal. Percentage more free throw attempts, more assists, fewer turnovers, more steals and lose in the history of the NCAA tournament.

While 'biggest choke' is subjective, the specific statistical profile of Duke losing with those advantages is a verifiable historical anomaly.
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Take Slip·Apr 8, 2024
#PMT-2024-0408-7496
John FantaJohn Fanta

UConn will beat Purdue 83-70 in the National Championship game

UConn 83 Purdue. 70 83 70.

The final score was UConn 75, Purdue 60. Fanta correctly predicted a double-digit UConn victory, though the score was lower than 83-70.
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Take Slip·Mar 29, 2024
#PMT-2024-0329-2360
Tom IzzoTom Izzo

Purdue has the best chance to win the title because of the motivation from losing to a 16-seed last year

I think Purdue has the best chance because of what happened to 'em last year. They've got the best rallying point and they've got a player of the year. And to deal with [Zach Edey] on a second day is hard.

Purdue made it to the National Championship game but lost to UConn, meaning they had the 'second best' chance but did not win it all.
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Take Slip·Mar 22, 2024·Picks
#PMT-2024-0322-763
HankHank

Purdue will win the National Championship as a redemption story similar to Virginia in 2019

I love love, love love Purdue. Revenge... The UVA formula. And what, what didn't UVA win the next year? Yeah. It's happening again.

Purdue made it all the way to the National Championship game but lost to UConn, falling just one game short of the UVA 2019 parallel.
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Take Slip·Mar 22, 2024
#PMT-2024-0322-769
Stanford SteveStanford Steve

UConn will defeat Tennessee to win the National Championship

My final four... I have UConn, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. [PFT: Who do you have in your finals?] UConn, Tennessee... And then UConn winning it all.

UConn did win the title, but Tennessee lost in the Elite Eight and the finals was UConn vs Purdue.
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Take Slip·Mar 20, 2024
#PMT-2024-0320-1255
Mark TitusMark Titus

North Carolina is the most susceptible 1-seed in the tournament

I have North Carolina. North Carolina I think's the most susceptible one seed. Because they are, they are heavily reliant on Armando [Bacot]... and also he's not, he's just not that good... I think they're the most susceptible one.

UNC lost in the Sweet 16. While Houston also lost in the Sweet 16, UNC's loss was seen by many as confirming their volatility.
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Take Slip·Feb 28, 2024
#PMT-2024-0228-9168
Jay BilasJay Bilas

Illinois and USF are teams trending toward a strong March run

I think Illinois is starting to trend in that direction... they're starting to look like they could do some real damage there. South Florida's another team that's trending a little bit like Florida Atlantic did last year.

Illinois made it to the Elite Eight (a very strong run). USF won the American regular season but failed to make the NCAA tournament, losing in the NIT second round.
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Take Slip·Mar 24, 2023
#PMT-2023-0324-13515
MaxMax

Drew Timmy is the best player on the planet

Drew Timmy has become [the] best fucking player on the planet. Every single time he wants the score, he scores.

While Timmy was an elite college player, calling him the best on the planet is obviously hyperbolic as he went undrafted shortly after.
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Take Slip·Feb 22, 2023
#PMT-2023-0222-4961
Big CatBig Cat

If Zach Edey gets two early fouls in a tournament game, Purdue is finished

The thing with Purdue, if they, if Zach Edey gets two fouls five minutes into any tournament game, it's over.

In their loss to FDU, Edey actually only had two fouls the whole game, but the team's reliance on him was exposed by FDU's pressure and Purdue's poor shooting.
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Take Slip·Mar 23, 2022
#PMT-2022-0323-19643
Tom CreanTom Crean

Purdue's size and foul-drawing ability makes them a nightmare matchup

Purdue is such a dangerous team because they score from two, they score from three... Zach Edey is the number one offensive rebound percentage guy in the country... those two and [Jaden] Ivey get fouled an amazing amount, so they can beat you at the foul line.

While factually true about their stats, their 'dangerous' nature failed to prevent an upset by St. Peter's.
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Take Slip·Mar 18, 2022
#PMT-2022-0318-3512
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

John Calipari is officially on the hot seat

March madness, recap of day one biggest story, Kentucky, John Calipari, officially on the hot seat.

While Calipari remained the coach for two more seasons, the seat significantly warmed until he eventually left for Arkansas in 2024.
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Take Slip·Mar 18, 2022
#PMT-2022-0318-3514
Big CatBig Cat

Mountain West teams cannot play in March

the only problem with Creighton winning is there are no mountain west teams left to fade cause they are a quick Owen for and out of the tournament. I don't know what's up with that conference. They just, for whatever it is, they just cannot play in March.

In 2022, the Mountain West went 0-4 in the tournament. However, San Diego State broke this trend by reaching the National Championship in 2023.
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Take Slip·Mar 11, 2022
#PMT-2022-0311-12474
Bruce PearlBruce Pearl

Don't play middle-of-the-pack SEC teams in the tournament

I'm just saying this. Look at some of the teams that finished in the middle of our league right now, some of the teams that are going to be seated anywhere from five to nine or 10... I'm just telling you, you do not want to play some of those teams in the NCAA tournament.

The 2022 tournament saw varied results for the SEC; Arkansas reached the Elite Eight, but high seeds like Kentucky and Tennessee were upset early.
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Take Slip·Feb 16, 2022
#PMT-2022-0216-1502
Big CatBig Cat

Chet Holmgren is very good but he looks like he will get eaten alive by real men in the paint

Chet Holmgren... is like the skinniest dude ever. And people get really mad because... your reaction is going to be, I actually would like to see you do, this is like this guy's, this guy's going to be soft when he plays against real men... he is really fucking good... but it's impossible to watch him once and not be like, oh, he's going to get eaten alive.

Holmgren has been an elite defender in the NBA, though his frame remains a talking point; he hasn't been 'eaten alive' in the way predicted.
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#PMT-2021-1112-5487
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Coach K is currently coaching for his job and legacy

I think that their [Duke's] players are so good that Coach K would be on the hot seat if he didn't win a title with these players. He is coaching for his job. We need to update that as the year goes on because if Coach K does not win a title with this extremely talented team, this would go down as the worst job coaching that he ever did in his entire life.

Hot TakeCBBFireSarcastic
Duke lost in the Final Four to North Carolina; while Coach K didn't 'lose his job' (he retired), many fans consider failing to win with Banchero a missed opportunity.
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Take Slip·Jul 28, 2021
#PMT-2021-0728-8582
Big CatBig Cat

Coach K will win 'Retirement of the Year' again in 2022 because he wants everyone to suck his dick for an entire year

I'm going to say coach K is going to win it this year. And he's going to win next year when he actually does retire because coach K has said that he's going to retire, but he needs everyone to suck his Dick for an entire year before he actually retired.

Coach K retired after the 2021-22 season. He did not win the 2022 Takie for Retirement of the Year (it went to Tom Brady/Sean Payton/etc depending on the year's humor), but the tour certainly happened.
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Take Slip·Mar 26, 2021·Picks
#PMT-2021-0326-15139
Big CatBig Cat

Arkansas will 'kill' Oral Roberts in the Sweet 16

Oral Roberts, Arkansas. Arkansas is going to kill them. Must bust all the way.

Arkansas barely escaped with a 72-70 win after Max Abmas missed a game-winning shot at the buzzer. They certainly didn't 'kill' them.
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Take Slip·Mar 22, 2021
#PMT-2021-0322-3619
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The NCAA will start rigging the 'First Four' with giant state schools for ratings next year

My prediction is the NCAA is going to think about doing something similar to that next year... They'll definitely have the two biggest names... There might be some monkey business when it comes to the last four in where they don't invite teams like smaller alumni bases. They just get two bona fide giant state schools to square off in that first game for ratings.

Selection Sunday processes remain opaque, but the NCAA has continued to feature major conference programs in the First Four (e.g., Indiana, Michigan State, etc.) since 2021.
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Take Slip·Mar 12, 2021
#PMT-2021-0312-19587
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Coach K is a mastermind for using a COVID withdrawal to protect Duke's winning streak

I think you at least have to respect Coach K for being one step ahead of our brains that try to simulate what Coach K will do... they have bowed out gracefully after winning their opening round game, the ACC tournament... maybe the streak is still intact because who knows? Maybe Duke would have gone on to win the ACC tournament. It's actually a brilliant move on Coach K's part.

Duke's 2021 season did end with a win (over Louisville), but they still missed the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1995, ending their official streak of appearances.
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Take Slip·Mar 1, 2021
#PMT-2021-0301-11494
Big CatBig Cat

Michigan is the best college basketball team in the country

I think Michigan should be number one. They're the best team in the country. What they've done has been insanely impressive... They are just killing people.

Michigan earned a #1 seed in the 2021 NCAA Tournament and reached the Elite Eight, but Baylor and Gonzaga were generally considered the superior teams by the end of the season.
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Take Slip·Feb 22, 2021
#PMT-2021-0222-15226
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Michigan is good enough to beat Baylor or Gonzaga this season

I feel like in yesterday's game, that was the first time in months that somebody's been like, showed up on a national stage, and you're like, that team can beat Baylor. That team can beat Gonzaga. Michigan, yeah. I feel like we need to include them in that conversation.

Michigan was a top-tier team but did not ultimately face or beat the unbeatens, losing to UCLA in the Elite Eight. Baylor beat Gonzaga in the title game.
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Take Slip·Nov 25, 2020
#PMT-2020-1125-10092
Mark TitusMark Titus

Gonzaga has the best potential to win the national title because of their multi-player talent

I think it might be [Gonzaga's year]. Gonzaga's going to be really good. I really do... They have like four guys who are the best player, and I love that because – Yeah, you get these situations that you only get with college sports where you pretend like the guy who's not that talented is actually the best player just because he dies on the floor for you.

Gonzaga went undefeated until losing the National Championship game to Baylor.
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#PMT-2020-0316-17681
Big CatBig Cat

Rick Pitino will be coaching at a Power 5 school within three years

I own a fancy. Yeah, damn Rick and so he is ready to get mean he's going to be in a power 5 school in within three years too.

Three years later (2023), Pitino was hired by St. John's. While St. John's is in the Big East—a 'high-major' basketball conference—it is not technically a 'Power 5' school (a term usually reserved for the football-centric P5 conferences like the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, etc.). However, it is a return to a major conference.
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Take Slip·Mar 13, 2020
#PMT-2020-0313-14942
Big CatBig Cat

The NCAA will use lost 2020 revenue as an excuse to avoid paying student-athletes

I think the NCAA probably will use this as a 'we can't pay the players' we lost 2020 tournament. Is there going to be like a trickle down effect here where they start crying poor or there's things get caught because they missed this much money.

The NCAA did face financial strain, but the movement toward NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) payments continued regardless of the 2020 losses, with major changes arriving in 2021.
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#PMT-2020-0311-3341
Big CatBig Cat

Adding football players to the Nebraska basketball team will change their morale and toughness

Nebraska, Fred Hoiberg has pulled out all the stops. Tomorrow against—I don't even know who—but Fred Hoiberg is bringing on Brant Banks and Noah Vedral to the basketball team. They are on the football team. I love that. He's adding toughness. At least it will be a bare minimum the morale and the attitude that the team will have will be significantly different.

While the players did join, the season was canceled shortly after, making it hard to judge the morale shift.
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Take Slip·May 24, 2019
#PMT-2019-0524-15600
Mick CroninMick Cronin

Moving the college three-point line back will open the floor but might make the game uglier due to poor shooting

So we're going to the FIBA line... a foot and a half [back]. So the theory is that it'll open the floor up more. I'd agree with that. But again, are you going to stretch your defense if guys can't make the shot? So you have coaches that think it's going to be great. You have coaches that think, well, it's just going to be less guys can make it. So it's going to be uglier.

The NCAA did move the line back for the 2019-20 season. Scoring and 3PT percentages dipped slightly but the floor spacing benefits were realized.
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#PMT-2019-0424-11004
HankHank

Duke will have the #1 recruiting class and Matthew Hurt will be their next star white player people hate

Number one recruiting class. They got Vernon Carey Jr. And everyone likes to root against the white guy that's a high recruit at Duke. Matthew Hurt is the guy. Have you seen pictures of this kid? ... Duke's back.

Duke's 2019 class was ranked highly (top 3 depending on the service), and Matthew Hurt was a key part of it, though he didn't become a legendary 'hated' Duke figure in the vein of Laettner or Grayson Allen.
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Take Slip·Apr 5, 2019
#PMT-2019-0405-4293
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Virginia will beat Auburn by a lot

I like Bruce [Pearl]. I think that they're going to get beat by UVA. By a lot, I think. I think that UVA is a very, very, very, very, very good team with a fan base that I really don't want to see win the national championship. But I think they're a much better team, so I think it's going to be UVA.

Virginia won 63-62, so they won but not 'by a lot'.
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Take Slip·Apr 1, 2019
#PMT-2019-0401-278
Mark TitusMark Titus

Texas Tech might be the best team in the country right now.

Texas Tech might honestly be the best team in the country right now. They just beat Gonzaga, who I thought was kind of the best team in the country, and they beat them pretty, like, it didn't feel like a fluke. It felt like Gonzaga played really well in that game, and Texas Tech was just better.

Texas Tech reached the title game and lost in overtime, proving they were arguably the best or second-best team.
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Take Slip·Mar 20, 2019
#PMT-2019-0320-14324
Big CatBig Cat

My 2019 Final Four: Virginia, Duke, Kentucky, and Michigan

So my Final Four is Virginia, Duke, Kentucky... and Michigan.

Only Virginia made the Final Four. Duke and Kentucky lost in the Elite Eight; Michigan lost in the Sweet Sixteen.
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Take Slip·Mar 20, 2019
#PMT-2019-0320-14325
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

My 2019 Final Four: Duke, Gonzaga, Virginia, and UNC

I have Duke, Gonzaga, Virginia, and UNC in my final four.

Only Virginia made the Final Four. Duke and Gonzaga lost in the Elite Eight; UNC lost in the Sweet Sixteen.
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Take Slip·Mar 20, 2019
#PMT-2019-0320-14326
Matt JonesMatt Jones

UC Irvine will upset Kansas State and reach the Sweet 16

I'll tell a big upset I like. I like UC Irvine to the Sweet 16. They play Kansas State. Dean Wade's not going to play. I don't like Kansas State at all... And UC Irvine's the only team in the tournament with 30 wins.

UC Irvine did upset Kansas State in the first round, but they lost in the second round to Oregon, so they did not reach the Sweet 16.
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Take Slip·Mar 15, 2019
#PMT-2019-0315-1952
Fran FraschillaFran Fraschilla

Florida State is a March Madness dark horse because of their incredible length

One, they've been good all year, but no one ever talks about them... that's Florida State because they got like 15 guys. I mean, and they got like seven guys over seven feet. It's amazing... All they did this year in a great league is go... 25-6.

Florida State reached the Sweet 16 but lost to Gonzaga.
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Take Slip·Jan 21, 2019
#PMT-2019-0121-1865
Big CatBig Cat

Zion Williamson should drop out of Duke and secure his shoe deal to avoid injury

Zion. Zion can't shoot free throws. ... He will be the number one pick no matter what, probably. So why not just go do it? And he'll make more money on his shoe deal than he will playing basketball. So don't risk that whatsoever. Just leave and get your shoe deal.

Zion suffered a knee injury in February when his shoe blew out against UNC, highlighting the risk, though he did return for the tournament and went #1 anyway.
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#PMT-2019-0114-11147
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The college basketball arm hook rule will cause an apocalypse in the tournament

This is going to cause absolute hell during the NCAA tournament. You're going to have stars foul out because of this weird flagrant foul thing. It's going to swing games, too. It's going to be awful. Once people realize how bad this rule is, the NCAA is going to be an apocalypse.

While the rule remained controversial, it didn't lead to a total 'apocalypse' or single-handedly ruin the 2019 tournament.
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Take Slip·Apr 2, 2018
#PMT-2018-0402-4251
Ed CooleyEd Cooley

Villanova will beat Michigan 84-72 to win the National Championship

Tomorrow night, I'm an incredible basketball fan. John Beilein. Jay Wright. 84-72. Villanova [wins].

Villanova won 79-62. Cooley got the winner right and the double-digit margin right, though slightly off on the exact score.
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Take Slip·Mar 14, 2018
#PMT-2018-0314-17667
Mark TitusMark Titus

Penn could be the first #16 seed to ever beat a #1 seed

I'm going to say this is the year that a 16 over one happens because why not? ... Penn, Kansas seems to be the one... If Kansas played Penn in a seven-game series, they're obviously going to move on, but it's a one-shot deal.

Kansas beat Penn, but #16 UMBC beat #1 Virginia in this exact tournament, making the 'this is the year' part legendary even if the specific game was wrong.
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Take Slip·Feb 26, 2018
#PMT-2018-0226-8260
Frank KaminskyFrank Kaminsky

Top football and basketball conferences should break away from the NCAA

I think the biggest thing that could change the NCAA as a whole is if the top 100 basketball and top 100 football conferences or teams – just completely break off from the NCAA and form their own thing. I think that's the best thing they could do because then they can play by their own rules in a sense.

While they haven't fully 'broken off', the creation of the CFP and the massive conference realignments (SEC/Big Ten dominance) show the sport moving in this exact direction.
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Take Slip·Feb 23, 2018
#PMT-2018-0223-6214
Matt JonesMatt Jones

Kansas and Arizona are the two schools most at risk in the FBI scandal

The FBI scandal, the thing that no one talks about is I think Kansas and Arizona are the two schools most at risk, but your boys down at Duke, I'd be nervous if I were them because Jeff Capel kind of buddies with those with these dudes that are implicated in the FBI.

Kansas and Arizona both faced significant NCAA investigations and penalties (Self and Miller were heavily scrutinized), though they didn't receive the 'death penalty' some predicted. Duke remained relatively unscathed.
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Take Slip·Feb 19, 2018
#PMT-2018-0219-13109
Tom CreanTom Crean

Trae Young and Oklahoma are struggling with fatigue and spacing, not a lack of talent

I don't see him [Trae Young] playing as quick as the last week or so... I think the whole mental fatigue, physical fatigue, everybody's got that in February. Sometimes you just got to get back to playing quicker... if his team can stay committed to the spacing and they've got to start to string some stops together, I think they'll be just fine.

Oklahoma continued to struggle, losing in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament to Rhode Island. Young's efficiency never fully recovered to early-season levels.
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Take Slip·Mar 31, 2017
#PMT-2017-0331-9049
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

North Carolina will win their Final Four game by 20 and the championship by 10

I think [North Carolina] are going to win this game by 20. And then I don't care who they play in the finals. They're going to win by at least 10.

UNC won the title, but both games were close: they beat Oregon by 1 and Gonzaga by 6.
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Take Slip·Mar 27, 2017
#PMT-2017-0327-1944
Jay BilasJay Bilas

It is a near certainty that college players will eventually boycott a game

I do think as the players, as we go forward, the players are getting more sort of socially aware and their awareness of their power in the marketplace is becoming greater. I think we'll see at some point somebody will boycott. I don't know when it's going to come, but I think it's a near certainty it's going to happen.

While not a widespread 'Final Four' boycott as joked about by PFT, player empowerment and NIL have fundamentally changed the power balance as Bilas predicted.
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Take Slip·Mar 24, 2017
#PMT-2017-0324-2498
Stu FeinerStu Feiner

Tournament games will be lower-scoring (unders) this weekend as teams tighten up

I think it'll tighten up. I think when teams tighten up, when more is on the line, normally the under is prevalent.

While this varies, many Elite Eight and Final Four games are high scoring; the 2017 title game was very low scoring (65-71).
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Take Slip·Mar 20, 2017
#PMT-2017-0320-17167
Big CatBig Cat

Wisconsin will lose in heartbreaking fashion on a buzzer-beater

Wisconsin is going to lose in heartbreaking fashion. That's going to be fun... South Carolina will probably win on a buzzer beater right in my face. I'll have front row seats.

Wisconsin lost to Florida (not South Carolina) on a buzzer-beater by Chris Chiozza in the Sweet 16. The spirit of the prediction was eerily correct.
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Take Slip·Mar 20, 2017·Picks
#PMT-2017-0320-17176
Big CatBig Cat

Gonzaga is a team of destiny because they absorbed Northwestern's power

I do believe in teams of destiny absorbing the teams they beat and their destiny... So they took out Northwestern, which was a true team of destiny, and they absorbed all that destiny. They're double the destiny.

OpinionCBBMediumSarcastic
Gonzaga did reach the championship game in 2017, their first ever Final Four.
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Take Slip·Mar 15, 2017
#PMT-2017-0315-12142
Mark TitusMark Titus

Gonzaga is the best team in the country

I actually like Gonzaga. I think Gonzaga's the best team in the country, and I know that's absolutely insane to say. I don't expect them to win at all, but I do think they're the best team and the most complete team.

Gonzaga made the National Championship, proving they were a top-tier team, even if they didn't win it all.
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#PMT-2016-1116-8019
Big CatBig Cat

If Brad Stevens became available, Indiana would fire Tom Crean immediately

I don't think it would matter if Indiana was good or not. If Brad Stevens became available... You just fired Tom Crean. Yeah, Tom Crean is gone.

Indiana did fire Tom Crean in 2017, but they did not hire Brad Stevens; they hired Archie Miller.
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Take Slip·Mar 16, 2016
#PMT-2016-0316-1145
Mark TitusMark Titus

Indiana winning the Big Ten was a nightmare because it saved Tom Crean's job

This was my nightmare as an Indiana fan... now they're probably going to lose to Kentucky in the second round... And then people that like Crean are going to say, Oh, but they lost to the final four Kentucky team... It's a weird position to be in when you're kind of cheering for them to lose. So that way you just fire Tom Crean.

Indiana did beat Kentucky in the 2nd round but lost to UNC in the Sweet Sixteen. Crean was eventually fired a year later in 2017.
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Take Slip·Mar 16, 2016
#PMT-2016-0316-1148
Mark TitusMark Titus

Oregon is the weakest 1-seed but has an easy path thanks to Duke being in their bracket

Oregon's definitely the weakest one seed, but then you've got to look at their bracket. Because they were blessed to have Duke in their bracket, the committee always gives Duke the easy ride. By proxy, Oregon also got the easy ride.

Oregon (1-seed) beat Duke (4-seed) in the Sweet Sixteen but then lost to Oklahoma in the Elite Eight.