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Big CatBig Cat

Elliot Cadeau was missing shots on purpose to pass to Terrace Reed and Axel Lindeberg

That was all part of the game plan that Elliot Cadeau was essentially missing shots on purpose to like missing high on the backboard because [Terrace Reed] was able to clean it up. And that was part of their game plan against Arizona, knowing Arizona has all these big guys. That the second shot was there a lot and you watch it back and you're like, oh yeah, he did do that a few times where it was almost a direct pass to [Reed] off the top of the backboard.

While Dusty May did use high-shot strategies, it's rare to intentionally miss; this is likely an exaggeration of an actual offensive rebounding strategy.
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Big CatBig Cat

Betting the over on Alabama basketball is a cheat code

Alabama by the way is a cheat code if you want to get in on it. It's just betting their overs. They just never stopped missing. This has been like, oh, two weeks now they're over under for the first half was 45 and a half points last night. They scored 69 in the first half.

The 'cheat code' status of a team's over is based on a specific run of games; eventually, Vegas adjusts the lines.
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Big CatBig Cat

Duke's loss to Houston was the biggest choke in Final Four history

Duke's downfall for four hours, but like, sign me up. I'll take off my pants right now. 'cause that was, holy fuck. Was that an incredible Final Four delivered... Duke biggest choke in Final Four history. Best team ever analytically... They're the only team to, to have a higher field goal. Percentage more free throw attempts, more assists, fewer turnovers, more steals and lose in the history of the NCAA tournament.

While 'biggest choke' is subjective, the specific statistical profile of Duke losing with those advantages is a verifiable historical anomaly.
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Dickie VDickie V

Duke and Florida will meet in the 2025 National Championship game

I have Duke, Florida in the championship. Duke winning the championship.

Duke did make the championship game (correct half), but they played Houston, not Florida. Florida beat Auburn in the other semifinal and then beat Houston in the title game. So the Duke-Florida championship matchup did not happen.
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Big CatBig Cat

Florida will score nearly 100 points against Norfolk State

I think Florida names their number... Florida's going for a hundred. Norfolk's gonna try to zone them, which they'll, they'll hit threes. They'll rebound. Like that's gonna be a disaster.

Big Cat predicted Florida would score nearly 100 points against Norfolk State ('going for a hundred'). Florida won 95-69 — close to 100 but not quite there. The prediction of a blowout was correct, and 95 points is near the predicted total.
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Stanford SteveStanford Steve

Maryland is a legitimate threat for a deep tournament run due to their favorable draw

I really like [Maryland's run] because they know what they got... Willard's got plenty of experience. I just love their shotmaking, their guards are tremendous... I really like their draw. And at some point when you're a four, you play the one. Hopefully you get a week to prepare and you roll the balls out. I love the Terps.

Maryland, as a 4-seed, did make a run to the Sweet 16 (beating Grand Canyon and Colorado State), which is a respectable deep run. However, they lost to 1-seed Florida 87-71 in the Sweet 16, so the 'deep tournament run' was moderate rather than truly deep.
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Mark TitusMark Titus

UC San Diego is a potential first-round fraud despite their analytics

Michigan turns it over like crazy. UC San Diego leads the country in turnover margin... [but] they haven't played a power conference team and that's why I'm worried about that. It feels like McNeese last year... they haven't literally not played anybody that has a center that's taller than 6'8".

Mark Titus warned UC San Diego was a potential first-round fraud despite their analytics, comparing them to McNeese. UCSD (12-seed) did lose to Michigan (5-seed) in the first round, but only 68-65 in a very competitive game — they nearly pulled off the upset. They lost as Titus predicted, but hardly looked like frauds.
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Big CatBig Cat

Michigan has turned the corner and is a dangerous team after winning the Big 10 tournament

Michigan obviously beat Wisconsin Big 10 title today. Dusty May called it correctly. He was like, our team needs a reset. They got their reset and then they won the big 10 tournament and they looked really good doing it. So maybe they've turned the corner and gotten that reset they needed.

Michigan did make the NCAA Tournament after winning the Big Ten tournament and reached the Sweet 16, losing to Auburn. However, they were not a deep threat as hoped.
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Big CatBig Cat

Florida will crush UConn by a hundred if they meet in the second round

I'm rooting for UConn just so that I can bet Florida against UConn. Everyone's gonna be like, watch out for UConn and Florida's gonna beat 'em by a hundred... Florida will kill him. Very. Florida's would be, that would be my take on that.

Florida did beat UConn in the second round 77-75, snapping UConn's 13-game tournament winning streak, but it was a very close game, not a blowout as predicted.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I am taking whoever plays against Kansas to win in the NCAA Tournament

I'm taking whoever plays against Kansas to W. There you go.

Kansas (as a 4 seed) lost in the second round to Gonzaga. While they won their first game, the 'bet against them' sentiment was generally validated as they didn't make a run.
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Dusty MayDusty May

Michigan will find their shooting stroke in the tournament after a historical drop-off late in the season.

I believe that we're gonna make some shots. ... over the last 14 games or so, I think we're around 355th or 360th. So there's been a big drop off in shooting. ... But yeah, I think we're gonna make some shots. We were really close yesterday, we generated some good looks that just didn't drop. So I think we're much closer than the scores as indicates as of late.

Michigan did find some shooting in the tournament, winning three games to reach the Sweet 16 (including an upset of 4-seed Texas A&M 91-79). However, they ultimately lost to 1-seed Auburn 78-65 in the Sweet 16. The shooting improved enough for a solid tournament run but not a deep one.
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Big CatBig Cat

Drake deserves an at-large NCAA Tournament bid no matter what happens in their conference tournament

Texas does not to be deserved to be in. They're bad if like Drake gets kept out instead of Texas. If Drake doesn't win their conference, I'll be very upset. I'm gonna say it right now. Drake deserves to be in no matter what.

Drake did make the 2025 NCAA Tournament but via automatic bid (winning the MVC tournament), not an at-large bid. They were a #11 seed and beat Missouri in the first round. The take was about deserving an at-large bid, which became moot since they won their conference.
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John FantaJohn Fanta

Duke is a defensive wagon and a national title favorite

Duke is damn good. They are, they are a spectacular team. They're a wagon defensively... If you force me to take Duke/Auburn or the field today, I would take Duke/Auburn.

Duke was indeed one of the best teams in the tournament, making the Final Four as a #1 seed and beating Alabama 85-65 in the Elite Eight. However, they lost to Houston 70-67 in the semifinal and did not win the title.
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Big CatBig Cat

Kentucky basketball won the coaching trade by replacing Calipari with Mark Pope

Kentucky, there's a clip going around. That's awesome. It's Mark Pope coaching in the huddle, essentially telling his players exactly what Cooper Flag is going to do... Something that Kentucky basketball is missing that in-game coaching. Kentucky basketball, good for you guys.

Mark Pope led Kentucky to the NCAA Tournament as a 5-seed in his first year, while Calipari's Arkansas also made the tournament as a 6-seed. Neither made the Final Four, so it's too early to declare a clear winner, but Pope's first year was solid.
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Rick PitinoRick Pitino

Mark Pope is an excellent teacher of basketball and will succeed at Kentucky

Mark Pope is, is a... excellent teacher of basketball. He also has, you know, He was also a terrific basketball player that got the maximum of his abilities because he gave it all... I think the fans are gonna fall in love with Mark. 'Cause the thing about him... It's always about team. It's always about Kentucky.

Kentucky made the NCAA Tournament in Mark Pope's first season as a 5-seed but lost in the Sweet 16 to Tennessee 78-65. A solid first year showing promise, but too early to declare full success.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

John Calipari will be a successful coach at Arkansas

Cal's gonna win it at Arkansas. He's gonna be a good coach in Arkansas. It's a good basketball school.

In Calipari's first season at Arkansas (2024-25), the team went 22-13 and received an NCAA Tournament bid as a 6-seed. While making the tournament is a good start, it's too early to call it a definitive success. They lost to Arizona in the second round.
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MaxMax

UConn will struggle next year because they return almost nobody

It also is crazy that everyone just keeps talking like UConn like three, they literally return nobody... Samson Johnson's a junior... Caravan's a sophomore... Caravan's is the only one I was wrong on.

While UConn lost several players to the NBA, they returned key pieces like Karaban and brought in talent, but they did not win a third title.
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John FantaJohn Fanta

Samson Johnson is the X-factor for UConn in the National Championship game

So he's the ex factor to the game. I think we could come out of the game saying Samson Johnson is the man who emerged... He can run the floor, runs the floor like a deer. He could fly above the rim. He throws down some thunderous dunks.

Johnson played 14 minutes with 4 points and 1 rebound in the final. He wasn't the primary story, but UConn won.
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John FantaJohn Fanta

UConn will beat Purdue 83-70 in the National Championship game

UConn 83 Purdue. 70 83 70.

The final score was UConn 75, Purdue 60. Fanta correctly predicted a double-digit UConn victory, though the score was lower than 83-70.
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Big CatBig Cat

DJ Burns will get in foul trouble immediately against Zach Edey and Purdue

I unfortunately think that DJ Burns probably already got his first foul in the game on Saturday getting off the bus. He's gonna be outta that game so fast. It's gonna suck.

In the Final Four matchup, DJ Burns was limited to 27 minutes due to 4 personal fouls, though he did finish the game.
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Big CatBig Cat

Alabama can beat any team in the country any night if they get hot from three

Alabama, as much as I am not a Nate Oats fan, they're fun to watch when they get going. And they're absolute flame throwers and it's their first Final Four. When they get hot from three they can be the best team in the country. Like that's just a fact.

Alabama eventually lost to UConn in the Final Four, failing to overcome the ultimate juggernaut despite their shooting ability.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Alabama will score 120 points and smoke Clemson in the Elite Eight

I think Alabama's gonna run 'em out of the gym. It was a cute little win that Clemson had. You ran up against a team that couldn't make a three point shot. Alabama's gonna just score 120 points on you.

Alabama beat Clemson 89-82. They won, but didn't reach 120 points or 'run them out of the gym' by a significant margin.
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Tom IzzoTom Izzo

Purdue has the best chance to win the title because of the motivation from losing to a 16-seed last year

I think Purdue has the best chance because of what happened to 'em last year. They've got the best rallying point and they've got a player of the year. And to deal with [Zach Edey] on a second day is hard.

Purdue made it to the National Championship game but lost to UConn, meaning they had the 'second best' chance but did not win it all.
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Jake MarshJake Marsh

Michigan basketball will return to prominence quickly under Dusty May.

Recurring guest Dusty May is going from FAU to Ann Arbor... I think they're gonna be back quickly.

Michigan won the Big Ten tournament and made the NCAA Tournament in 2025 under Dusty May, making it to the Sweet 16 where they lost to Auburn. This shows progress but 'return to prominence' is still early to fully judge.
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Stanford SteveStanford Steve

UConn will defeat Tennessee to win the National Championship

My final four... I have UConn, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. [PFT: Who do you have in your finals?] UConn, Tennessee... And then UConn winning it all.

UConn did win the title, but Tennessee lost in the Elite Eight and the finals was UConn vs Purdue.
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Mark TitusMark Titus

North Carolina is the most susceptible 1-seed in the tournament

I have North Carolina. North Carolina I think's the most susceptible one seed. Because they are, they are heavily reliant on Armando [Bacot]... and also he's not, he's just not that good... I think they're the most susceptible one.

UNC lost in the Sweet 16. While Houston also lost in the Sweet 16, UNC's loss was seen by many as confirming their volatility.
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Big CatBig Cat

Texas A&M is a 'live' underdog against Houston because they can grind out low-possession games

I actually think Texas A&M might be live [against Houston]. They can get down and dirty and grind it out and play low possession games. 'Cause that's what I always look for with these upsets is like, what teams can play these low possession games where you can... make them have to execute in a half court and things won't go as well.

Texas A&M did play Houston in the second round and it was an extremely close 'live' game, with Houston eventually winning 100-95 in overtime.
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John FantaJohn Fanta

Tennessee is a safer Final Four bet than Kentucky because of Dalton Knecht

I would take Tennessee before I took Kentucky... now they've got a guy who can be a Doug McDermott Jimmer Fredette type guy in [Dalton] Knecht. Rick Barnes has crumbled offensively [in the past], now you're not gonna crumble 'cause you know who you're going to.

Tennessee reached the Elite Eight in 2024, their best finish under Rick Barnes, validating the idea that this team was different, though they fell one game short of the Final Four.
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Jay BilasJay Bilas

Illinois and USF are teams trending toward a strong March run

I think Illinois is starting to trend in that direction... they're starting to look like they could do some real damage there. South Florida's another team that's trending a little bit like Florida Atlantic did last year.

Illinois made it to the Elite Eight (a very strong run). USF won the American regular season but failed to make the NCAA tournament, losing in the NIT second round.
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MaxMax

Drew Timmy is the best player on the planet

Drew Timmy has become [the] best fucking player on the planet. Every single time he wants the score, he scores.

While Timmy was an elite college player, calling him the best on the planet is obviously hyperbolic as he went undrafted shortly after.
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John FantaJohn Fanta

Joey Hauser is the 'Brady Manek' of the 2023 NCAA Tournament

Joey Hauser is the Brady Manek of this NCAA tournament... sometimes when you have two great players like Vescovi and Zeigler are, are really good... but Hauser is just deliver[ing].

Hauser had a strong tournament, but Michigan State didn't reach the Final Four like Manek's UNC team did.
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Big CatBig Cat

Houston will steamroll Northern Kentucky and their second-round opponent (Iowa or Auburn)

Houston, when they get embarrassed, they take it out so hard. Yeah. On like... Houston is going to steamroll Northern Kentucky. Duh. But then Iowa or Auburn are both gonna get steamrolled either one. Houston, just a reminder... puts a lid on the rim and they just rebound. That's all they do.

Houston beat NKU by 11 and Auburn by 17; while they won both, 'steamrolled' is an exaggeration for the 11-point win over a 16-seed.
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Big CatBig Cat

Coach Cal is truly on the hot seat at Kentucky if people believe fake firing rumors

It makes me think like if a joke like that can be believed that much he's truly on the hot seat. This, this it is.

Calipari remained the coach for two more seasons but faced increasing pressure until leaving for Arkansas in 2024.
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Tom CreanTom Crean

Purdue's size and foul-drawing ability makes them a nightmare matchup

Purdue is such a dangerous team because they score from two, they score from three... Zach Edey is the number one offensive rebound percentage guy in the country... those two and [Jaden] Ivey get fouled an amazing amount, so they can beat you at the foul line.

While factually true about their stats, their 'dangerous' nature failed to prevent an upset by St. Peter's.
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Big CatBig Cat

You just have to trust the narrative that Rick Barnes will always choke in the tournament

At some point you just have to trust the narrative. Like Fran McCaffery doesn't go to the Sweet 16. Rick Barnes is 25 and 25 all time in the tournament... I felt very bad for [Tennessee fans] because it was essentially like, we fell for this again.

Barnes did reach the Sweet 16 the following year (2023), somewhat pushing back on the narrative, though he remains a target for 'choker' claims.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

John Calipari is officially on the hot seat

March madness, recap of day one biggest story, Kentucky, John Calipari, officially on the hot seat.

While Calipari remained the coach for two more seasons, the seat significantly warmed until he eventually left for Arkansas in 2024.
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Big CatBig Cat

The Mountain West conference cannot play in March

The only problem with Creighton winning is there are no Mountain West teams left to fade cause they are a quick 0-4 and out of the tournament. I don't know what's up with that conference. They just, for whatever it is, they just cannot play in March.

Historically, the Mountain West has struggled significantly in the NCAA tournament relative to other conferences, though individual teams eventually break the trend (like SDSU in 2023).
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Bruce PearlBruce Pearl

Don't play middle-of-the-pack SEC teams in the tournament

I'm just saying this. Look at some of the teams that finished in the middle of our league right now, some of the teams that are going to be seated anywhere from five to nine or 10... I'm just telling you, you do not want to play some of those teams in the NCAA tournament.

The 2022 tournament saw varied results for the SEC; Arkansas reached the Elite Eight, but high seeds like Kentucky and Tennessee were upset early.
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Big CatBig Cat

Chet Holmgren is very good but he looks like he will get eaten alive by real men in the paint

Chet Holmgren... is like the skinniest dude ever. And people get really mad because... your reaction is going to be, I actually would like to see you do, this is like this guy's, this guy's going to be soft when he plays against real men... he is really fucking good... but it's impossible to watch him once and not be like, oh, he's going to get eaten alive.

Holmgren has been an elite defender in the NBA, though his frame remains a talking point; he hasn't been 'eaten alive' in the way predicted.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Coach K is currently coaching for his job and legacy

I think that their [Duke's] players are so good that Coach K would be on the hot seat if he didn't win a title with these players. He is coaching for his job. We need to update that as the year goes on because if Coach K does not win a title with this extremely talented team, this would go down as the worst job coaching that he ever did in his entire life.

Hot TakeCBBFireSarcastic
Duke lost in the Final Four to North Carolina; while Coach K didn't 'lose his job' (he retired), many fans consider failing to win with Banchero a missed opportunity.
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BuckBuck

Kentucky basketball is loaded up and ready to return to the top this season

I feel like we're just about ready to shoot to the top... We're loading up right now. [Ready to] go back to the top.

Kentucky finished 26-8 and was a 2-seed but suffered a historic upset to 15-seed Saint Peter's in the first round, failing to reach the 'top'.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The NCAA will start rigging the 'First Four' with giant state schools for ratings next year

My prediction is the NCAA is going to think about doing something similar to that next year... They'll definitely have the two biggest names... There might be some monkey business when it comes to the last four in where they don't invite teams like smaller alumni bases. They just get two bona fide giant state schools to square off in that first game for ratings.

Selection Sunday processes remain opaque, but the NCAA has continued to feature major conference programs in the First Four (e.g., Indiana, Michigan State, etc.) since 2021.
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Big CatBig Cat

Wisconsin will make a tournament run because Roy Williams and North Carolina are turnover machines

I have talked myself into Wisconsin making a run. I said to myself, you know what? Roy Williams, he's not a good coach. [North Carolina] are going to turn the ball over. They're going to win, they're going to hit their jump shots. I've done that.

PredictionCBBHotSarcastic
Wisconsin beat UNC in the first round but lost to Baylor in the second round, so they didn't really make a 'run'.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Coach K is a mastermind for using a COVID withdrawal to protect Duke's winning streak

I think you at least have to respect Coach K for being one step ahead of our brains that try to simulate what Coach K will do... they have bowed out gracefully after winning their opening round game, the ACC tournament... maybe the streak is still intact because who knows? Maybe Duke would have gone on to win the ACC tournament. It's actually a brilliant move on Coach K's part.

Duke's 2021 season did end with a win (over Louisville), but they still missed the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1995, ending their official streak of appearances.
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Big CatBig Cat

Coach K's COVID withdrawal was a long con to bow out before being snubbed by the NCAA selection committee

I can say maybe this was a long con by Coach K to basically bow out of the season before the selection committee could not select Duke this Sunday... I respect COVID too much [to say it], but that might have happened.

Duke did miss the 2021 tournament, but the withdrawal was due to a genuine positive test within the program during the ACC tournament.
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Big CatBig Cat

Michigan is the best college basketball team in the country

I think Michigan should be number one. They're the best team in the country. What they've done has been insanely impressive... They are just killing people.

Michigan earned a #1 seed in the 2021 NCAA Tournament and reached the Elite Eight, but Baylor and Gonzaga were generally considered the superior teams by the end of the season.
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PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Michigan is good enough to beat Baylor or Gonzaga this season

I feel like in yesterday's game, that was the first time in months that somebody's been like, showed up on a national stage, and you're like, that team can beat Baylor. That team can beat Gonzaga. Michigan, yeah. I feel like we need to include them in that conversation.

Michigan was a top-tier team but did not ultimately face or beat the unbeatens, losing to UCLA in the Elite Eight. Baylor beat Gonzaga in the title game.
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Mark TitusMark Titus

Gonzaga has the best potential to win the national title because of their multi-player talent

I think it might be [Gonzaga's year]. Gonzaga's going to be really good. I really do... They have like four guys who are the best player, and I love that because – Yeah, you get these situations that you only get with college sports where you pretend like the guy who's not that talented is actually the best player just because he dies on the floor for you.

Gonzaga went undefeated until losing the National Championship game to Baylor.
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Big CatBig Cat

The NCAA will use lost 2020 revenue as an excuse to avoid paying student-athletes

I think the NCAA probably will use this as a 'we can't pay the players' we lost 2020 tournament. Is there going to be like a trickle down effect here where they start crying poor or there's things get caught because they missed this much money.

The NCAA did face financial strain, but the movement toward NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) payments continued regardless of the 2020 losses, with major changes arriving in 2021.
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Big CatBig Cat

Adding football players to the Nebraska basketball team will change their morale and toughness

Nebraska, Fred Hoiberg has pulled out all the stops. Tomorrow against—I don't even know who—but Fred Hoiberg is bringing on Brant Banks and Noah Vedral to the basketball team. They are on the football team. I love that. He's adding toughness. At least it will be a bare minimum the morale and the attitude that the team will have will be significantly different.

While the players did join, the season was canceled shortly after, making it hard to judge the morale shift.

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