PMTPMT DB

Takes

Win
#PMT-2021-0908-5783
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Spirit Halloween will have a massive year because of vacant retail space

I think also this is going to be a huge year for Spirit Halloween because we had so many businesses that totally went out of business over the last year. There's so much more retail space. There could be one on every single block.

Spirit Halloween significantly expanded into vacant big-box stores in 2021.
Void
Take Slip·Aug 11, 2021
#PMT-2021-0811-14242
Daymond JohnDaymond John

Hot fashion brands typically only last five to seven years

The cycle of generally for fashion, a hot fashion brand lasts about five to seven years. There's a unicorns like Nike and Louis Vuitton. But you'll notice whether it's Benetton or Levi's... [they] chip away.

This is a general business observation from a fashion mogul.
Void
Take Slip·Aug 11, 2021
#PMT-2021-0811-14244
Daymond JohnDaymond John

The only way to make real money in the stock market is to hold for 20 years

If you buy something on one of those [Robinhood/Ameritrade], the real way you're going to make money is to hold it for 20 years. If it's a value. But if you buy it, you naturally look at your account and you go back and go, 'oh, I'm Gordon Gekko. I just made $200. Let me sell it.'... It takes away your discipline.

Standard financial advice regarding long-term compounding vs short-term trading.
Win
#PMT-2021-0730-15318
Billy FootballBilly Football

The Pi Coin cryptocurrency is officially a pyramid scheme and a scam

That Pi coin I was telling everyone to do is a scam. Yo. Basically it's sort of a big kind of pyramid scheme mask type thing. What made you think it was a pyramid scheme? Was it the fact that you had to get other pioneers to make yourself more Pi? That, and you know, the sort of pyramid part of it.

Pi Network has been widely criticized by security experts as a data-harvesting app with no real value, fitting Billy's 'scam' description.
Void
Take Slip·Jun 23, 2021
#PMT-2021-0623-2127
Tony KhanTony Khan

AEW exists because WCW vacated the prime TNT/TBS television slot

AEW exists, in my opinion, because of the failure of WCW because they vacated this great time slot, this great relationship with TNT and TBS that we have. And that was the success of WCW was the outlet, the penetration they had from TNT, TBS, and, of course, the fans.

This is Khan's internal business logic and historical interpretation.
Win
#PMT-2021-0623-2133
Billy FootballBilly Football

Wingstop changing their name to Thighstop is due to a national wing shortage

My hot seat is Wings. Wingstop is now Thighstop due to the national wing shortage. There was a three-time price increase in Wings, so it actually had... been a better investment to invest in Wings than... some cryptos right now.

Wingstop did launch a 'Thighstop' digital brand in June 2021 specifically to combat high wing prices and shortages.
Void
Take Slip·Jun 11, 2021
#PMT-2021-0611-19609
Mr. PortnoyMr. Portnoy

Car dealerships are all bullshit and haven't changed in years

The car dealerships have never changed. They advertise what they do, but it's all bullshit... I really believe if I went into one of these dealerships, not so much that I could sell cars, but I could show them what the fuck is wrong with what you're doing.

This is a subjective personal opinion based on his experiences.
Win
Take Slip·May 10, 2021
#PMT-2021-0510-11479
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Dogecoin's value is purely driven by publicity and famous people mentioning it

With Doge, it's like that, but since it's based on a joke meme, publicity is 10 times more important than any real value. As far as I can tell, the best thing that can happen to Doge is just a famous person says the word Doge on a massive platform.

Dogecoin famously crashed after Elon Musk called it a 'hustle' on SNL, proving the take that the price is tied to public mentions.
Open
Take Slip·Apr 23, 2021
#PMT-2021-0423-6288
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Mark Davis will eventually have to sell the Raiders because he won't be able to afford the inheritance tax.

And then when Mark gets the team, he's not going to have the money to pay the inheritance tax on it. Correct. And so he'll have to sell that team.

This prediction depends on future events (Carol Davis passing and subsequent tax filings). As of now, Mark Davis still owns the team.
Void
#PMT-2021-0312-19598
Big CatBig Cat

Every major corporation needs a consultant specifically to identify if an idea will be mocked by the internet

It made me realize that I have job security no matter what in life in that every team and corporation should have on staff a person who essentially is just there to say, 'Hey, will we get made fun of for this?'... our, 'Will the internet make fun of you for this?' is absolutely a job we could do.

While humorous, 'social media consultant' is a real role that exists, though Big Cat frames it as a specific 'anti-mockery' role.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 1, 2021
#PMT-2021-0301-11503
Big CatBig Cat

The NBA Top Shot market is a bubble and investors will lose money

This bubble's going to be painful for some people. That could be one day. The Top Shot bubble... I'm leery on Top Shot... Let's not pretend that this is going to be your retirement account.

The NFT and Top Shot market crashed significantly in late 2021 and 2022, with many moments losing over 90% of their value.
Win
Take Slip·Feb 26, 2021
#PMT-2021-0226-16595
HankHank

Disc Golf is a massive growth market that we can get in on the ground floor of

There is a new sport that's blowing up. And I think we can get it on the ground floor and make a lot of money. This dude, Paul McBeth. Today, signed a 10-year, $10 million contract extension to play disc golf. His signature line sold so many. There's such a huge market there.

Disc golf did see significant growth during and after the pandemic, and Paul McBeth's deal was a real milestone for the sport.
Void
#PMT-2021-0222-15237
Big CatBig Cat

Fear of missing out (FOMO) is the correct reason to get into Bitcoin or Top Shot

If the only reason you're getting into it is a fear of missing out, that's the wrong reason? No, no, no, no. That's exactly the only reason to get in. The only reason to get into all of these things is that you don't want to someday be pumping the gas for a fucking Bitcoin billionaire's boat.

This is a philosophical approach to high-risk investing and social trends.
Loss
#PMT-2021-0219-16026
Billy FootballBilly Football

I am either going to prison or becoming a billionaire because of Pi Network

Either I'm going to go to jail because this is all illegal, which I don't think it is, or I'm going to make a ton of money. It's speculative value. Either I'm going to go to prison or be a billionaire.

Pi Network remains in an unlaunched 'enclosed mainnet' state years later with zero market value, and Billy is neither in prison nor a billionaire because of it.
Open
Take Slip·Feb 8, 2021
#PMT-2021-0208-12329
Billy FootballBilly Football

I will spend my Rough N' Rowdy winnings on Dogecoin

So, Billy, what are you going to spend the winnings on? ... Dogecoin.

While it's unverified if he put every cent into it, Dogecoin peaked in May 2021, so if he did buy it in February and held, he would have made a significant profit before the crash.
Win
Take Slip·Jan 29, 2021
#PMT-2021-0129-9290
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

I'm shorting Robinhood as soon as they go live

I'm shorting Robinhood, though, when they eventually go live.

Robinhood went public in July 2021 at $38, peaked briefly, and then crashed significantly, losing over 70% of its value within a year. Shorting it would have been highly profitable.
Loss
Take Slip·Jan 29, 2021
#PMT-2021-0129-9291
Billy FootballBilly Football

Blockbuster stock is going to make me a millionaire

Blockbuster, bro. It was one cent when I talked about it last time. It is now seven cents. What? Let's go. I called it. Billy is a Blockbuster millionaire.

Blockbuster (BLIAQ) is a delisted 'zombie' stock that spiked purely on meme momentum. It has zero fundamental value and is not a legitimate long-term investment.
Void
Take Slip·Jan 29, 2021
#PMT-2021-0129-9292
Big CatBig Cat

The 'Reddit millionaires' will be the funniest class of millionaires ever

I need the quote-unquote trolls of the internet... to be the power players and shift the entire dynamic... the Reddit millionaires are going to be fucking hilarious.

This is a subjective opinion about the comedic value of a social phenomenon.
Void
Take Slip·Jan 29, 2021
#PMT-2021-0129-9307
Big CatBig Cat

The stock market 'pause button' was hit only to save the fat cats

The game's rigged. They literally rigged it in plain sight... The fat cats in Wall Street are basically going to figure it out, going to blame the small guy, going to make new rules. Like, we've already seen it.

Subjective political/economic opinion, though Robinhood did face numerous lawsuits and hearings regarding these specific actions.
Push
Take Slip·Jan 29, 2021
#PMT-2021-0129-9309
Brian KoppelmanBrian Koppelman

Civil damages against Robinhood for breaking user agreements could be enormous

If Robinhood shut down and stopped you from being able to trade, in violation of the user agreement you signed, I think the damages against them in a civil case are fucking extraordinary, enormous damages.

Robinhood faced over 50 class-action lawsuits. While many were dismissed or settled for smaller amounts than 'enormous', they did pay a $70 million fine to FINRA (the largest ever at the time).
Loss
Take Slip·Jan 27, 2021
#PMT-2021-0127-1374
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Wall Street will eventually make it illegal to talk about stocks online once they realize message boards are too powerful

What will probably happen is there's going to be one hedge fund that goes out of business like Bear Stearns or whatever and then they're going to come back, rewrite the laws so it's going to be illegal to talk about stocks online and then boom now they're fucking you again for the next hundred years.

While regulatory discussions followed, talking about stocks remains legal, though market manipulation rules are strictly monitored.
Void
#PMT-2021-0113-11773
Big CatBig Cat

Bitcoin investors will die rich but never spend their money because they are obsessed with holding

The whole point of being rich is to spend money and do cool shit. Bitcoin people just... in the next 10 years it's going to be the only currency that exists. There's going to be at least a few people who die and they're like... worth 100 million dollars. They didn't spend any of it.

This is a characterization of a subculture, making it mostly subjective, though 'lost' Bitcoin wallets confirm many will indeed die with 'wealth' they never spent.
Push
Take Slip·Dec 28, 2020
#PMT-2020-1228-17123
Big CatBig Cat

Amazon will eventually buy the entire NFL

Amazon is going to buy the entire NFL eventually. You think it was a one-off [the Amazon game]? It is not. Amazon is going to buy the entire NFL.

Amazon secured exclusive rights to Thursday Night Football shortly after this, though they have not bought the entire league.
Open
Take Slip·Dec 23, 2020
#PMT-2020-1223-3743
Rachel NicholsRachel Nichols

The NBA's consideration of expansion to Seattle is primarily driven by the need for billions in expansion fees

The truth is they need money. And if they expand again, it's about a billion dollars a franchise... They're talking about, 'Oh, should we put more Jersey patches on stuff like that to make up the extra revenue they're not getting from ticket sales?' The Seattle SuperSonics coming back, that would be a hell of a Jersey patch. You would definitely rake in the cash.

While expansion hasn't happened yet, it is widely reported by NBA insiders that expansion fees (expected to be $4-5 billion per team) are a key driver for future league growth.
Void
Take Slip·Nov 20, 2020
#PMT-2020-1120-12942
James Buster CorleyJames Buster Corley

Success is the only thing that separates a visionary from a fool

The difference between being a visionary and a fool is success. If it happens, you're a visionary. You're brilliant, right? Well, if it doesn't happen, you're an asshole.

This is a subjective business aphorism.
Loss
Take Slip·Nov 20, 2020·Picks
#PMT-2020-1120-12944
Billy FootballBilly Football

A parlay strategy involving five underdogs has a 50% likelihood of profit

I plugged in 32 outcomes, and then once each outcome happens, you see how much money you stand on winning in that moment... this actually has a 50% likelihood of being positive.

Standard gambling math shows that multi-leg parlays are negative expected value bets. Billy's specific formula was widely debunked by listeners following the episode.
Void
#PMT-2020-1113-4515
Mr. PortnoyMr. Portnoy

HP has the worst customer service in the human race

I prepared on my Twitter account this morning thing that says about HP the worst cutting height I put him in quotations—customer service the worst in the human race. Whoa. And I could hurt so many people.

Hyperbolic subjective opinion from a disgruntled customer.
Win
#PMT-2020-1104-3375
Billy FootballBilly Football

Humans are more effective and cheaper than robots for retail inventory

Walmart has stopped using robots to do inventory because they realize that humans were actually just as effective and cheaper. So cool throne humans were cheaper than robots.

Walmart did indeed end its robot contract in November 2020 because human workers were found to be just as effective and the company found simpler solutions.
Loss
Take Slip·Oct 14, 2020
#PMT-2020-1014-4082
Mark CubanMark Cuban

The US should implement a $1,000 stimulus check every two weeks for a couple of months

The idea of thousand dollar stimulus every two weeks... when people have money to spend we can boost up the economy... That's not a long-term solution... but if you do it every two weeks for a couple months and you also make it you have to spend it or lose it... that puts money into the economy that has a multiplier effect.

While more stimulus checks were issued, they were one-time payments and never reached the $1,000 every-two-weeks frequency Cuban proposed.
Loss
Take Slip·Oct 14, 2020
#PMT-2020-1014-4084
Billy FootballBilly Football

I am developing an app to crowdsource the 'vibe' and gender ratio of bars in real-time

I have developed an idea for a Marketplace that will get information from producers to consumers in The Nightlife and entertainment industry. It would crowdsource information real time from people on the street going to a bar or a restaurant... You basically just get demographics to go where you want... how many dudes are at the bar right now?

The app 'Gala' (or 'How Many Dudes') never launched as a successful commercial product.
Win
#PMT-2020-0923-10699
Billy FootballBilly Football

Costco's co-founder threatened to kill the CEO to keep the hot dog price at $1.50

The Costco co-founder... got mad at the CEO of Costco said, 'Hey, we're losing money on our dollar fifty hot dog deal. I think you got change it up' and the co-founder of Costco's like 'If you change that deal, I'll kill you.'

This is a documented interaction between Costco co-founder Jim Sinegal and CEO Craig Jelinek.
Void
#PMT-2020-0914-8922
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Tesla for Tables: A self-leveling table technology

Tesla for tables... the table itself feels the surface around it and then adjusts so that there's never any wobble... every restaurant I go to has a set of wobbly table. All those tables wobble.

While a funny idea, no such 'Tesla for Tables' product has revolutionized the restaurant industry.
Win
Take Slip·Aug 17, 2020
#PMT-2020-0817-4390
AkonAkon

I made more money from ringtones than from my record label selling albums

I realized... the ringtone was only 15 seconds of the song but it was $4.99. ... I went straight for the ringtones and every song I made I made sure I did all ringtones for it. ... I end up being on the Guinness Book of World Records for most ringtones sold in the world and the good thing that I never gave him my digital rights. I was able to really make more money just from selling ringtones that I did in my label made from selling my albums.

Akon is officially recognized by Guinness World Records for this, and the high price of ringtones vs. singles in that era is a documented economic anomaly.
Win
#PMT-2020-0722-9788
Big CatBig Cat

Apple purposefully throttles iPhone battery life when a new model is about to be released

My iPhone on Saturday started, like, rapidly losing battery, getting way overheated, and it's been crap the last few days. And then I Googled it because I was like, oh, I should probably get a new one. Oh, weird. iPhone 12 coming out soon. Oh, it's fucking every single time. I don't understand how they're able to get away with this.

Apple has faced multiple lawsuits and fines (e.g., in France and the US) for throttling older iPhones to 'protect batteries', which they settled for hundreds of millions of dollars.
Void
#PMT-2020-0713-16213
Big CatBig Cat

The 'Soup Tube' business idea is an absolute wave of the future

I would pay, I'd probably have like five or six different soup tubes installed in my kitchen right now... Out of the Monday readings we've done, Dave & Buster's guys is number one... Soup Tubes is number two... I would unironically purchase this.

Soup tubes have not become a reality as of 2024, but the take is about the 'genius' of the idea, which remains subjective.
Void
Take Slip·Jun 19, 2020
#PMT-2020-0619-13979
Big CatBig Cat

Opening a bar with your best friend is the quickest way to end the friendship

Most stories that take a turn start with the sentence 'and then we opened a bar together.' It's like, and then we opened a bar together and everything in our life like as friends as brothers went downhill. If you want to hate your best friend, open a bar with him.

This is a subjective generalization about business and friendship.
Win
#PMT-2020-0520-9120
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Blockbuster not buying Netflix for $50 million is the worst business decision ever

This is an easy one blockbuster not buying Netflix 450 million dollars. Blockbusters like know people like coming into our physical retail locations for the smell... easy number one for me.

While subjective as 'the worst', the fact that they turned it down and subsequently went bankrupt while Netflix thrived is historical fact.
Win
#PMT-2020-0520-9121
Big CatBig Cat

Mark Cuban made a mistake by not buying 10% of Big Cat's brain for $1 million

I'll go with Mark Cuban up buying 10% of my brain he's an idiot that was a dumb business decision I'm going to make I'm going to make that money back it was for a million dollars he regrets it 1 million dollars and he got all my lifetime earning from that day forward.

Hot TakeBusinessHotSarcastic
Given Big Cat's massive success and the value of Barstool Sports, 10% of his future earnings for $1M would have been a legendary ROI for Cuban.
Win
Take Slip·May 15, 2020
#PMT-2020-0515-5273
Mark CubanMark Cuban

States will 100% legalize sports gambling post-pandemic for the tax revenue

One hundred percent. Absolutely. They need the tax revenue. And absolutely, the minute you can get one inside the arena... all in.

Following 2020, dozens of states legalized sports betting to generate revenue, and several NBA arenas (like the Wizards') now have on-site sportsbooks.
Void
Take Slip·May 15, 2020
#PMT-2020-0515-5274
Mark CubanMark Cuban

Business is the ultimate competition and much harder than professional sports

In basketball, you compete for 48 minutes. You practice a couple hours. You guys know in business, it's 24 by 7 by 365, and everybody's trying to kick your ass. Everybody's trying to come after you, and you got to battle all the time. Sports are easy, easy. Business is the ultimate competition.

This is a purely subjective philosophy from a billionaire entrepreneur.
Push
#PMT-2020-0429-18606
Big CatBig Cat

Data visualization designers and bow tie manufacturers are thriving during the pandemic

I actually think bow ties are getting a big boom because every time I turn on CNN, there's a fucking weirdo doctor... what do they do wear a bow tie. The people who are making the the gifts of like, you know, like the spread of coronavirus the charts. It's got to be off the charts for them right now.

While data visualization (e.g., John Burn-Murdoch's charts) definitely saw a massive boom in traffic and influence, the bow tie boom is more of a humorous anecdotal observation about doctors on TV.
Push
Take Slip·Apr 17, 2020
#PMT-2020-0417-11981
Christian DawkinsChristian Dawkins

If NCAA rules don't change, cryptocurrency will be used to pay college athletes

If instead of way rules don't change something is going to be the new thing because It is again. That's how it works. It has to happen... it wouldn't surprise me if that's the that's the move in the next couple of years if nothing changes.

While NIL laws changed in 2021 (making payments legal), some rogue boosters and collectives have indeed utilized crypto for transactions.
Void
Take Slip·Mar 30, 2020
#PMT-2020-0330-14755
Barbara CorcoranBarbara Corcoran

The secret ingredient to success is how long a person takes to feel sorry for themselves after a failure

When I really analyzed over the years what a secret ingredient is... it was exactly what you just said: how long they take to feel sorry for themselves... It's how long it takes. Some say 'oh poor me' and some get right back up.

This is a subjective business philosophy that cannot be definitively proven right or wrong.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 30, 2020
#PMT-2020-0330-14756
Barbara CorcoranBarbara Corcoran

The 'Comfy' is my most profitable Shark Tank investment ever

The one that I made the most money on already in just a few short years, millions of dollars, is Comfy... They've sold over 70 million dollars... I took just a 30% of their interest just because I like the guys.

At the time of recording, this was true. The Comfy became a massive viral hit and remained one of her top earners.
Win
Take Slip·Mar 30, 2020
#PMT-2020-0330-14757
Barbara CorcoranBarbara Corcoran

My worst Shark Tank investment was a weight loss lipstick that burned people's lips

The lipstick that makes you lose weight. It doesn't make you lose weight. What it does is burns the crap out of your lips so you don't want to eat a hot dog... terrible. That's a real thing.

The product she is referring to is 'Skinny 24' or similar appetite-suppressing lip balms she invested in on the show which failed.
Loss
Take Slip·Mar 30, 2020·Null
#PMT-2020-0330-14758
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Flavored 'Water for Dogs' is a billion-dollar business idea

I came up with a billion dollar idea maybe quadrillion or trillion dollar idea: its water for dogs... why not a little flavored water for your dog? So you can either go with the Savory option and have it be like a bacon flavored water or bone broth water.

While broth for dogs exists, a 'billion dollar' plain water brand for dogs has not materialized as a major market disruptor.
Loss
Take Slip·Mar 27, 2020
#PMT-2020-0327-7526
Lavar BallLavar Ball

Big Baller Brand is worth over one billion dollars

The net worth of big baller brand is estimated to be over 1 billion dollars... what's it worth? why everybody knows it's worth a billion. Why do you think they come at me so hard? Because I know it's worth a billion dollars.

While the brand has notoriety, no financial valuation or sale has ever validated a $1 billion price tag; the company struggled with manufacturing and internal theft issues.
Loss
Take Slip·Mar 2, 2020
#PMT-2020-0302-12658
Big CatBig Cat

I think the stock market is going to bounce back

I was on the NASDAQ floor on Thursday. I think the stock market's going to bounce back.

The stock market suffered its fastest 30% drop in history throughout March 2020 due to the pandemic.
Loss
Take Slip·Feb 28, 2020
#PMT-2020-0228-10269
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Steven Seagal can't be arrested for fraud because Bitcoin 2 Gen was obviously a pyramid scheme

I don't think that Steven Seagal is off the hook on this one because you can't get arrested for fraud If the product is called this is literally fraud, right? So he's very open about how fraudulent Bitcoin to Jin was. So it's not like it's false advertising.

Seagal was actually charged by the SEC for failing to disclose payments he received for promoting the ICO and reached a settlement.
Win
Take Slip·Feb 26, 2020
#PMT-2020-0226-642
Kevin O'LearyKevin O'Leary

WeWork is a disaster that will inevitably go to zero.

You are a zero and you're going to zero with a bullet... It always goes to zero because what you're basically doing is taking long-term debt obligations to either lease or buy a building and then you're providing short-term leases to some really shitty companies that don't make any money... It is a disaster on wheels.

WeWork eventually filed for bankruptcy in 2023 after its valuation crashed from $47 billion to essentially zero.