PMTPMT DB

Takes

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Take Slip·Apr 22, 2020
#PMT-2020-0422-8347
HankHank

Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski will not retire as Buccaneers

Do you think Tom Brady and Gronk will retire as Buccaneers when they go into Canton? No, I think it might if they win a Super Bowl, but there's definitely like a one side of me and it makes sense like Gronk was retired... There's another part of me where it's like, how is Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski playing [NFL] and not on the Patriots?

Brady and Gronk did eventually retire as Buccaneers (Brady twice), though they will forever be remembered as Patriots.
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Take Slip·Mar 30, 2020
#PMT-2020-0330-14753
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The NFL Draft being virtual will give a massive advantage to organized teams with good scouting

Every general manager in the league is freaking out right now because... it's a terrible idea from a talent evaluation side of things to have this draft when you can't go see them... it's going to give the teams that have their shit together such a huge leg up on every other team.

The 2020 draft was remarkably smooth, and while some teams drafted better than others, there was no widespread collapse due to technology.
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Take Slip·Mar 27, 2020
#PMT-2020-0327-7525
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The 2003 Panthers team all took steroids at the same time

Jake Delhomme parentheses non-steroid Panthers. Because that team like when they went to the Super Bowl just everyone took steroids at the same time, it was awesome.

While several players on that team were linked to steroids or performance-enhancing drugs, it was not the entire roster.
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Take Slip·Mar 18, 2020
#PMT-2020-0318-10388
Big CatBig Cat

The Chicago Bears will pursue every available quarterback and somehow end up with none of them

The Bears are going to be in on every single quarter back out there and somehow get none of them and completely demolish what little is left of Mitchell Trubisky's confidence to the point where what you'll be gone now.

They actually did get a QB (Nick Foles), but Trubisky's confidence and tenure were indeed demolished.
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Take Slip·Mar 13, 2020
#PMT-2020-0313-14937
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The DC Defenders are the official XFL East champions

I'm still absolutely claiming the XFL East for the DC Defenders. First place in the XFL East.

The XFL did not officially crown champions for the 2020 season, though the Defenders were 3-2 and tied for first in the East at the time of cancellation.
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Take Slip·Mar 9, 2020
#PMT-2020-0309-18259
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

DK Metcalf is like an aircraft carrier: powerful but unable to turn

I like to compare you to are. Craft carrier so I can you get you go you're powerful and you go straight and then you turn by degrees of like 1%... You tell everyone they're like, hey tomorrow we're going to turn and then they stay turn the aircraft Kurt.

While Metcalf's agility drill was poor, he developed into an All-Pro receiver with a expanded route tree, making the 'can't turn' narrative partially incorrect over time.
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Take Slip·Feb 28, 2020
#PMT-2020-0228-10264
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Tom Brady hates everyone in the Patriots organization and wants to get out fast

I'm reading that as Tom Brady hates everyone in the Patriots organization is looking to get out of town as fast as possible.

While Brady did leave for the Buccaneers shortly after this, the claim that he 'hates everyone' is hyperbole, though relationship tensions were well-documented.
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Take Slip·Jan 31, 2020·Picks
#PMT-2020-0131-4967
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Chiefs will win Super Bowl 54 and Tyrann Mathieu will have a turnover

I'm also taking the Chiefs. I have a lot of conviction in that bet... The Honey Badger is making the difference in this game. He's going to have at least one turnover. He has been the key to the Chiefs defense stepping up.

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl, but Tyrann Mathieu did not record an interception or fumble recovery in the game.
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Take Slip·Jan 31, 2020
#PMT-2020-0131-4966
Big CatBig Cat

The 49ers have been the best team in the NFL all year wire-to-wire

I just think that the 49ers have that. They've been the best team all year. I think we forget that they have pretty much wire to wire been the best team all year... the 49ers have been close to a juggernaut. They have played really, really well all season long.

The 49ers were the #1 seed in the NFC and finished 13-3, but they ultimately lost the Super Bowl to the Chiefs.
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Take Slip·Jan 20, 2020
#PMT-2020-0120-11181
Big CatBig Cat

Sports teams that wear the color red are statistically more dominant across all professional leagues

I read a study 15 years ago... that teams that wear the color red are dominant if you look across all sports professionally. There's like a small bit of darwinian or evolutionary trait being bright red gives you as a show of dominance.

The Chiefs (red) won Super Bowl 54, and the Chiefs (red) would go on to win three Super Bowls in five years. However, the study's scientific validity in team sports is highly contested.
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Take Slip·Jan 20, 2020
#PMT-2020-0120-11175
Big CatBig Cat

In the NFL postseason, running the ball doesn't matter in the AFC, but it is essential in the NFC

What we've truly learned from this sample size, I think it's big enough: in the AFC, running football doesn't work. In the NFC, you need to be able to run the football and it doesn't matter if you're able to pass. Running backs that run for over 200 yards with four touchdowns, their team wins 100% of the time.

The 2021 AFC Champions (Bengals) and the 2022 AFC Champions (Chiefs) both relied heavily on passing, while teams like the 49ers continued to dominate the NFC via the run, giving some spiritual validity to the take, though it's not a hard rule.
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Take Slip·Jan 8, 2020
#PMT-2020-0108-971
Big CatBig Cat

Mike McCarthy is just a fatter version of Jason Garrett

It's a great hire for Jerry Jones because he basically just hired a fatter Jason Garrett. Do you think Mike McCarthy's going to steal the show in Dallas? Do you think he's going to make the headlines?

McCarthy has had a higher winning percentage in the regular season than late-era Garrett, but has similarly struggled with playoff breakthroughs in Dallas.
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Take Slip·Jan 3, 2020
#PMT-2020-0103-11835
Big CatBig Cat

The Redskins will win eight games next year under Ron Rivera

I'm dangerously close to being back all in on the our words [Redskins] and by all in I think maybe they win 8 games next year. Woah. Yeah, that's a lot.

The Washington Football Team won 7 games in 2020, narrowly missing the 8-win mark but winning the NFC East.
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#PMT-2019-1220-8831
Big CatBig Cat

Take all the unders in late-season NFL divisional games

I feel like late in the season divisional just take all the unders. I know that sounds crazy. I know overs are more fun. But these two teams know each other they yeah, they it's tough to beat a team twice.

While a common betting trope, NFL scoring trends vary year to year; in Week 16 of 2019, several divisional games (like Rams-49ers) went over the total.
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Take Slip·Dec 13, 2019·Picks
#PMT-2019-1213-17880
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Ryan Tannehill is peaking and will never play better than he is right now

We're in the process of watching Ryan Tannehill as good as he's probably ever as good as his body is capable of playing football. That's how he's playing. The best will ever get it's probably not going to get any better than this.

Tannehill continued to play well in 2020 (33 TDs, 7 INTs), which arguably rivaled his 2019 efficiency, though 2019 remains his highest yards-per-attempt and passer rating season.
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Take Slip·Dec 9, 2019
#PMT-2019-1209-17628
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Packers are a little bit fraudulent

I feel I feel like the Packers are a little bit fraudulent. Oh, welcome to yes the right side of History SHINee. It took only beating the Redskins by five points for me to realize that. Hey, maybe they're not that great of a football team this year.

The Packers finished 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship game, where they were thoroughly outclassed by the 49ers, validating the 'fraudulent' tag against elite competition.
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Take Slip·Dec 6, 2019
#PMT-2019-1206-16963
Big CatBig Cat

Mitch Trubisky plays completely differently when he has confidence

I'm going to say about here and now when [Trubisky]'s playing with confidence, different guy. Even his interception was good because he pinned them at the one. His confidence, his decision-making, Matt Nagy's play-calling has been phenomenal in the last two games.

While Trubisky had a great game here, his lack of consistency and overall career trajectory suggest that confidence alone wasn't enough to sustain high-level play.
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Take Slip·Nov 27, 2019·Picks
#PMT-2019-1127-17034
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The New Orleans Saints will blow out the Atlanta Falcons

I think that the wonky game already happened with the Saints and the Falcons. I think the Saints are going to blow them out.

The Saints won 26-18. While they won, an 8-point margin is hardly a 'blowout', though they controlled the game.
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Take Slip·Nov 25, 2019
#PMT-2019-1125-3586
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Sean McDermott is a top candidate for NFL Coach of the Year

Is it time right now to start asking about Sean McDermott, possible coach of the year? That's like the sweet spot for a coach of the year, coaching a smaller market team and elevating them beyond what their expectations were.

McDermott finished 2nd in Coach of the Year voting in 2019, losing to John Harbaugh.
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Take Slip·Nov 20, 2019
#PMT-2019-1120-3487
Big CatBig Cat

Philip Rivers' career is over

Philip Rivers is done. D-O-N-E, done. D-E-A-D, dead. It's over. I said to myself, this is sad. And I think it might be over. Because there's something about it that feels different. The arm is just not there. And it just can't. It will never come back.

Rivers played one more mediocre year with the Chargers and one solid final year with the Colts in 2020 before retiring. He wasn't 'dead' yet, but the end was near.
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Take Slip·Nov 18, 2019
#PMT-2019-1118-2366
Big CatBig Cat

Dak Prescott is silently getting himself into the MVP conversation

All I know is that Dak Prescott is very, very good and silently getting himself into the MVP conversation. He had 444 yards.

Dak finished with 4,902 yards and 30 TDs, but didn't receive an MVP vote as Lamar Jackson was the unanimous winner.
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Take Slip·Nov 18, 2019
#PMT-2019-1118-2371
Big CatBig Cat

I am so excited to bet against Kirk Cousins in the playoffs

Kirk Cousins has been phenomenal this year, and I am so excited to bet against him in the playoffs.

Cousins actually won his first playoff game (at New Orleans) before losing to the 49ers in the Divisional round. Big Cat likely lost that bet if he took New Orleans.
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Take Slip·Nov 15, 2019
#PMT-2019-1115-15131
Mike FlorioMike Florio

The Giants will give Eli Manning a farewell game on December 29th

I'd be tempted at some point to hold Eli Manning in my back pocket because I feel like he's going to get at least one farewell game... It will not surprise me at all if there's a quote-unquote injury to Daniel Jones that really wouldn't keep him from playing, but let Eli Manning finish out the season.

Eli Manning did start two more games (Dec 9 and Dec 15) due to a genuine Daniel Jones ankle injury, but Jones returned for the Dec 29 finale. Eli's 'farewell' effectively happened earlier.
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Take Slip·Nov 11, 2019
#PMT-2019-1111-5536
Big CatBig Cat

The Packers' defense is 'fraud city'

The Packers' defense stinks. That defense is fraud city... I don't think that team's getting a big stop when they need it at the end of — in a big, important game.

The Packers defense was ranked 15th in points allowed but got blown out 37-20 by the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
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Take Slip·Nov 8, 2019
#PMT-2019-1108-1172
Warren SharpWarren Sharp

The Buffalo Bills are fraudulent because their run defense is weak

Buffalo... you can run on that defense. So I'm going to be interested to see this weekend if the Cleveland Browns can help support Baker Mayfield by running the football a little bit on the Buffalo Bills defense.

The Bills finished the season 10-6 and made the playoffs, though they did lose to the Browns that weekend 19-16.
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Take Slip·Oct 25, 2019
#PMT-2019-1025-2521
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Kirk Cousins will eventually break everyone's heart

I'm not ready to crown Kirk Cousins. I think he's still going to break everyone's heart. It's going to happen eventually. Of course.

Cousins eventually did lose a major primetime playoff game against the Giants in 2022, though he remained statistically solid for much of his tenure.
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Take Slip·Sep 20, 2019
#PMT-2019-0920-18296
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Gardner Minshew is the permanent starter for the Jaguars even when Nick Foles returns

I don't think that you can put Nick Foles in when you have Gardner [Minshew] out here looking like Leonard Skinner's pilot, just crushing shit, just dominating... You can't take that guy out of the game. He's going to be your starter.

Minshew did start most of the season, though Foles briefly returned to start three games before being benched again for Minshew.
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Take Slip·Sep 20, 2019·Picks
#PMT-2019-0920-18299
Big CatBig Cat

The Packers and Broncos will hit the under 43

I'm taking the Packers and Broncos under 43. The Broncos last 10 games, 10 unders. And the Packers defense is good. I think that's going to be the easiest under of the week.

The Packers won 27-16, totaling 43 points exactly. Depending on the book, this was a push or a narrow under/over loss.
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Take Slip·Sep 16, 2019
#PMT-2019-0916-8752
Big CatBig Cat

Ben Roethlisberger is at the end of the road

Big Ben is, I would say, at the end of the road. Is it fair to say? If it is the UCL, if it is the Tommy John thing... then there's no chance he'd be able to play.

Roethlisberger required elbow surgery and missed the remainder of 2019. Though he returned for two more seasons (2020-2021), he was significantly diminished physically.
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Take Slip·Sep 16, 2019
#PMT-2019-0916-8756
Big CatBig Cat

Drew Brees will miss half of the 2019 season with his thumb injury

Drew Brees is hurt. And he's hurt bad. And he's going to be out for a while. I think he's going to miss half—half the season. Eight weeks.

Brees missed 5 games (approximately 6 weeks including the bye). He returned sooner than Big Cat's '8 weeks/half season' prediction.
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Take Slip·Sep 6, 2019
#PMT-2019-0906-16115
Big CatBig Cat

NFL teams will start challenging offensive pass interference just to get a free timeout

This is going to suck in the NFL this season because they have the new rule where you can challenge and offensive pass interference. ... Teams will start doing that where they will if a team is starting to roll down the field and like the second half and there's just even some kind of contact. They will throw the flag to basically get a free time out on defense. I can't stop all momentum.

The PI challenge rule was widely considered a failure in 2019 and was scrapped after one season, though it was occasionally used as a de facto timeout/challenge of desperation.
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Take Slip·Sep 4, 2019
#PMT-2019-0904-16417
Jerry FerraraJerry Ferrara

Eli Manning deserves to start for the Giants and shouldn't be benched for the rookie yet

I'm gonna say Eli [over Daniel Jones]... I think he deserves... after the way he was benched two years ago, I think he deserves... One Last [run]. I don't know if you want to throw the rookie in right away.

Eli Manning was benched for Daniel Jones after an 0-2 start to the season, so Ferrara's hope for a longer run didn't happen, though Eli did start initially.
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Take Slip·Sep 3, 2019
#PMT-2019-0903-12276
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Minnesota Vikings are officially cursed for the 2019 season after cutting Kyle Sloter

So he [Kyle Sloter] got cut, and now the Vikings are cursed. They're cursed this year. Kirk Cousins might not win a big game. He won't win a big game. The Vikings, who historically have been clutch in the playoffs, aren't going to win the Super Bowl this year.

The Vikings went 10-6 and actually won a huge playoff game in New Orleans, though they did not win the Super Bowl.
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Take Slip·Aug 23, 2019
#PMT-2019-0823-15998
Jerry O'ConnellJerry O'Connell

Baker Mayfield is going to be a stud

I got to say, there's this running back named Nick Chubb... And we have Baker actually. By the way, he is going to be... a stud. Oh, a stud.

Baker had a sophomore slump in 2019 but eventually led the Browns to a playoff win in 2020. However, his Browns tenure ended poorly, making 'stud' a debatable long-term label.
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Take Slip·Aug 19, 2019
#PMT-2019-0819-13493
Big CatBig Cat

Society will eventually reach a point where football is played every single day of the year

Eventually, we're going to get to a football season that just goes the entire calendar year, and I'm here for it.

The NFL calendar continues to expand with more games and spring leagues (XFL/USFL) provide year-round football options.
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Take Slip·Aug 14, 2019
#PMT-2019-0814-17438
Matt LaFleurMatt LaFleur

The Packers will utilize the fullback position as a weapon this year

Danny [Vitale]'s been awesome. We want to be able to run everything out of 21 personnel. And a lot of teams don't see that anymore. So it is a little bit of an advantage, especially if you get a guy that can catch the ball out of the backfield.

Vitale played 15 games in 2019, catching 7 passes for 97 yards and serving as a lead blocker, though he wasn't a statistical 'weapon' in the traditional sense.
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#PMT-2019-0724-5833
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Kirk Cousins is the most average quarterback of all time

Kirk Cousins, probably the most average quarterback that these two eyes have ever seen. He will beat every team that is less than 8-8, and he will lose to every team that is better than 8-8... you never expect him to do anything great, and guess what? He never does.

While Cousins has remained consistently productive, he won a major playoff game against the 13-3 Saints in the 2019 playoffs, slightly complicating the 'loses to winning teams' narrative.
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#PMT-2019-0522-8654
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Bosa family are made of silk because they are so injury prone

The Bosa family, they're kind of doofies, doofuses, doofi? ... If you did a 23andMe on the Bosa family jeans, it's like 15% Anglo-Saxon and then 85% silk. Torn hamstrings. They're just made out of silk. Their hamstrings are Ming vases.

While both Bosas have missed significant time with injuries, Nick Bosa has also won Defensive Player of the Year, suggesting he's more than just fragile.
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Take Slip·Apr 24, 2019
#PMT-2019-0424-11011
Todd McShayTodd McShay

Marquise Brown is the next DeSean Jackson

I love Marquise Brown, the wide receiver from Oklahoma. He's 166 pounds... but he's DeSean Jackson, and I'll take that in the top 20.

Brown has been a productive deep threat, but comparing any prospect to an All-Pro like DeSean Jackson is a high bar that Brown hasn't consistently met across his career.
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Take Slip·Apr 19, 2019·Picks
#PMT-2019-0419-200
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

The Dolphins will hit the Over on their 2019 win total

The fact that there was only one person that picked their team to finish with a worse record than Vegas, that means that we have to take the over for the Dolphins. We got to fucking hammer that over on Dolphins.

The Dolphins' over/under was 5. They finished 5-11, resulting in a push for most bettors, though some lines were 4.5 or 5.5.
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#PMT-2019-0325-2418
Big CatBig Cat

Antonio Brown secretly hates being an Oakland Raider and will demand a trade within six weeks

Antonio Brown... I don't think he wants to be an Oakland Raider. And he's trying to convince himself that this is the good move... I think Antonio Brown is secretly like, this is kind of a bad deal... I wouldn't be shocked if he demands a trade within the first six weeks.

Antonio Brown never played a regular-season game for the Raiders. He requested and was granted his release before Week 1, which aligns with the spirit of the 'wants out' take but missed on the timing and method.
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Take Slip·Mar 18, 2019·Aaf Af
#PMT-2019-0318-957
PFT CommenterPFT Commenter

Trent Richardson is a 'human first down' due to his high touchdown-to-yardage efficiency in the AAF

2.4 [average]. I'd rather my running back work smart than work hard... Eight touchdowns for five games, that's insane. Listen, say what you want about him. He's very efficient. He doesn't need a lot of yards to get his touchdowns.

OpinionFootballMildSarcastic
Richardson finished the AAF season with 11 rushing touchdowns but only 2.63 yards per carry.
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#PMT-2019-0306-10720
Big CatBig Cat

The Giants are crazy for letting Landon Collins walk for nothing

My hot seat is the New York Giants. So they won't franchise tag Landon Collins. They're going to let him walk. The guy who's 25 years old, made three Pro Bowls, seems to be like the heart of the locker room. So the Giants are letting him walk. And essentially, I think the Giants' plan is to just keep paying Eli forever.

Collins signed a massive deal with the Redskins and his performance declined, while the Giants moved on to Daniel Jones shortly after, so the 'Eli forever' part was wrong.
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Take Slip·Mar 4, 2019
#PMT-2019-0304-15476
Big CatBig Cat

The Steelers will trade Antonio Brown somewhere he hates just to spite him

I think we're at the point now where the Steelers are going to trade him to somewhere he doesn't want to go and just fuck him over.

The Steelers traded AB to the Raiders, a destination he initially seemed happy with because they gave him a new contract, though it famously blew up before he played a game.
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#PMT-2019-0213-17005
Big CatBig Cat

Matthew Stafford will own major passing records and still be considered a bad quarterback

Matthew Stafford is going to be a real problem for the NFL Hall of Fame. when he plays 10 more years and has every record and is the shittiest quarterback of all time. Matthew Stafford was basically the most perfect, terrible quarterback to come along and play as much as he is. If he plays for like 10 more years, he will have every record.

Stafford has won a Super Bowl since this take, changing his 'shittiest' narrative, but the volume records vs. HOF debate remains active.
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#PMT-2019-0213-17006
Big CatBig Cat

The Jets will sign Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell but still win only six games

This is going to be just the Jets getting Antonio Brown in, Le'Veon Bell, and then still winning six games, right? Yes. Because that's going to be... It's going to be so funny.

The Jets did sign Le'Veon Bell but not Antonio Brown (who went to Oakland). The 2019 Jets finished 7-9, very close to the 6-win prediction.
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Take Slip·Feb 4, 2019
#PMT-2019-0204-2421
Big CatBig Cat

The lower-tier coaches hired from the Sean McVay tree won't be successful

The fifth or sixth guy that gets hired [from the McVay tree] is the fifth or sixth best offensive guy, so he's probably not that good. Exactly.

While some succeeded (Zac Taylor), many McVay associates hired in this era struggled to maintain the same offensive magic as head coaches.
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Take Slip·Feb 1, 2019
#PMT-2019-0201-3048
HankHank

The Patriots are going to kill the Rams in the Super Bowl

I think Pat's going to kill him. I know we love Jared on the show. Good friend of the program. But the fact that he is, like, listening to all our episodes... it seems like he's not, like, as focused. McVay is going to get beaten by Belichick in some way, shape, or form at some point during the game.

The Patriots won but 13-3 is hardly 'killing' someone in terms of score, though it was a defensive masterclass.
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Take Slip·Jan 30, 2019
#PMT-2019-0130-6032
Scott ZolakScott Zolak

Tom Brady will play for 2 to 3 more years

I think, you know, if you asked me last year, I could see forward at one year... I think it's a kumbaya period where Bill's happy, Tom's happy... That fucker's having fun, and I think he wants to continue to have fun. So two to three years.

Brady played 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. Zolak was very close, only off by one year on the upper bound.
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Take Slip·Jan 21, 2019
#PMT-2019-0121-1860
Big CatBig Cat

Sean McVay owes the hosts a Super Bowl suite and a ring for birthday week

Sean McVay said that he would get us a ring if the Rams win, get us a suite at the Super Bowl... I don't think he fully took off the table that we can call the first play. [PFT]: Well, he said that we could call the last play as a kneel down.

McVay did say these things in the August 2018 interview, but they were clearly non-binding jokes. They did not get a suite or a ring.
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